Here goes…
St Kilda Saints to Slide Down the Ladder
After the Summer from hell and failing to win a premiership despite playing in three grand finals in the past two years, surely St Kilda are due for a let down this year.
The famed “Saints bubble” has failed to deliver the side premiership glory, and I feel that this year will see the Saints slide out of the top four teams. The Saints best six players are as good as any other side’s in the competition, but they need more support from the next tier of players to prevent a fall down the ladder.
I feel that the Saints premiership window may have closed on this group of players.
One Coaching Favourite Son to be Sacked
The fascination of AFL clubs with appointing favourite sons as coaches continues this year, with Essendon’s James Hird joining Brett Ratten, Michael Voss, Matthew Primus and John Worsfold in coaching the side he played for.
Although Hird and Primus will be safe in their first full year as senior coach, I expect one of Worsfold, Ratten or Voss to part ways with their club mid-season.
No Change to Top Eight
History tells us that several sides will fall out of the top eight from one season to the next, but I feel this season the top eight teams will be the same eight which contested the finals series last year.
In the past five years there have been three changes on average to the final eight when compared with the previous year, but I can’t see which of the bottom eight sides from last year are strong enough to challenge the top eight.
North Melbourne finished ninth in 2010, but that result was better than many expected given the club’s playing list. Port Adelaide finished tenth, but seem a long way from being finals bound.
Adelaide finished eleventh last season after starting the year with six consecutive losses, and appear the side most likely to crack into the top eight this year from those that finished outside the finals last season.
Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast and Essendon don’t appear to have the talent to challenge any of last year’s finalists, although golden boy Hird may be able to just sneak the Bombers into eighth spot with a bit of luck.
I can’t see it happening though, and feel that this year’s top eight will be the same teams as last season.
Gold Coast Suns to finish the season without the Wooden Spoon
The new franchise on the Gold Coast will surprise a few sides this year, and will finish the season well clear of the bottom of the ladder.
The last new side to enter the league, Port Adelaide in 1997, finished 9th in its inaugural season, winning ten matches. Two years before that, Fremantle won eight matches and finished 13th in its first season in the AFL.
It is worth bearing in mind that neither of these sides had the concessions that the Gold Coast side has had.
Yes, there will be a few floggings along the way, but the Suns will win enough matches to stay away from the wooden spoon. I expect the Suns to notch up between six and nine wins this season.
Geelong to Silence the Doubters
With key figures Gary Ablett and Mark Thompson leaving Geelong, many expect the Cats to start to drift down the ladder. Thompson’s heart clearly wasn’t in it last season, and new coach Chris Scott will be taking control of a club filled with talent.
The Cats have quality on every line, and plenty of stars in Paul Chapman, Stevie Johnson, Joel Selwood and Jimmy Bartel. I expect the Cats to show their doubters that last year was just a hiccup in what will remain a strong team for another couple of years at least.
Hawthorn to win the Premiership
How can a side as jam packed with talent as the Hawks not seriously challenge for the flag? The side is brimming with talent, the majority of which should be entering their most productive years over the next few seasons.
Lance Franklin is a superstar, and the most entertaining player in the competition. Newly appointed Hawthorn captain Luke Hodge is all class, ex-Captain Sam Mitchell can find his own ball like few others, and Cyril Rioli seems destined for more time in the midfield this year to showcase his exquisite skills.
Add to this mix Shaun Burgoyne and Jarryd Roughead, and the Hawks are capable of knocking anyone off on their day.
I expect the Hawks to deliver on their promise after two disappointing years following their 2008 premiership.
Top Eight
1. Collingwood
2. Hawthorn
3. Geelong
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Fremantle
6. St Kilda
7. Sydney
8. Carlton
Premiers – Hawthorn
Runners Up – Collingwood
Wooden Spoon – Brisbane Lions
Brownlow Medal – Chris Judd (Carlton)
Coleman Medal – Lance Franklin (Hawthorn)
Rising Star Winner – David Swallow (Gold Coast)
Big Improver – Hawthorn
Big Slider – St Kilda
Big Question Mark – Adelaide. The Crows have a hint of the Bombers 1993 about them. The Crows are a young and talented list with plenty of self belief. This season will show whether 2010 just an aberration, or a sign that the club needs to go back to the drawing board and modify its game and playing list more thoroughly.
Think you know more than The Roar’s expert columnists? Leave your predictions for AFL season 2011 below.
Follow Michael Filosi on twitter @michaelfilosi
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
MCG estimating a crowd of 70,000 for opening game this Thursday night.
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
Hird will not get sacked, in fact he is probably the coach in the AFL LEAST likely to be sacked this year. Then again, the same was said when Blight took control of the Saints, and he got the flick, so I guess stranger things have happened.
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
Cleary optimistic about the Blues prospects this season, good stuff Charlie.
Djsinnema
Guest
Only point that i would debate is the Hird being safe from being sacked. You underestimate how brutal Essendon can be. Unlike other AFL teams, they almost expect a finals appearance every season, and the last two times they did not make the finals they went out and sacked the coach (Kevin Sheedy did not make the finals in 08 and was promptly fired and Knights came 8th in 2009 and after 2010, when they came 12th he was fired) Ratten is expected to win a final at the very least, Voss and Worsfold are expected to at least come 12th. 2 of these 4 will be sacked
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
heh, heh, fair enough Charlie!
Charlie
Guest
Guilty as charged, MLF. But I don't really think they'll win. I only posted that to see if it would get any response. I do think they can win it, but all the stars would have to align and everything go right for that to happen. My real tip for the flag is St Kilda
Charlie
Guest
* The Blues probably won't finish fourth, but stranger things have happened. For example, how many people tipped Freo to make top 4 in '06 (from 10th in '05), of the Kangaroos to make top 4 in '07 (from 14th in '06). In fact, since 1994 (the start of the top 8 finals system) until 2008, there was a team in the top 4 at the end of the year that had missed the finals the previous year. Even in 2009, Collingwood came from 8th in '08 to make the top 4. That makes 2009 and 2010 exceptions rather than rules. For the Blues to make top 4 they need to not lose games against lower teams, something Collingwood managed in the last couple of years. They will also need big years from mid range playes: Waite, Betts, Walker, Houlihan, etc. It probably won't happen this year, but it just might. * Andrew Swallow for Brownlow is based on the Kangas having a very successful year. If they do, Swallow will be one of the main reasons for that and he should get a lot of votes. There's something about Jack and the way he plays that screams Brownlow winner to me, but I'll concede it's probably a couple of years early for him. As for the umpires, every now and then there are unusual winners of the Brownlow (Cooney and Woewodin come to mind), 2011 might just be one of those years. * Don't want to put Longmire down, but Roos was a genius coach who got the best out of his players. Despite the good rapport with the players (or maybe because of it?), I think it will take time for Longmire to produce the same results. * The 'Roos are my surprise packet team. If I was to re-assess I'd probably have them about 7th due to their early injury list, but I still think they'll win more than they should.
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
Charlie Carlton to win the flag from 4th possie? I take it that you're a Carlton fan?
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
MyLeftFoot, I think the season opener will always get 10,000 to 15,000 more people through the gate, just for the fact that it is the first game of the season. It would be great to see 80,000 at the MCG on Thursday, and hopefully Richmond can put up more fight than what they have in the previous couple of years.
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
On October 1 this year we will see who got closer to the mark Charlie!
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
Enjoyed reading your take on this season Charlie. Agree with a lot of your comments. However.... * I can't see Carlton finishing 4th. The Blues rely far too heavily on Judd. Gibbs, Murphy, etc would have to have exceptional years for Carlton to make top four. * Andrew Swallow or Kieran Jack for Brownlow? Very doubtful. Umpires have their well established favourites, and I expect one of those players to win. * Swans are a question mark this year as well, as you note. Hard to pick where they will finsih. Could be anywhere between 5th and 13th I'd say, which is obviously fairly broad. * I admire the Kangaroos for their famed Shinboner Spirit, but cannot see them coming 5th. Give them another couple of years and they may well challenge for a position from 4th to 6th, but not this year.
Charlie
Guest
Good article Michael, although I disagree with your conclusions. I find it contradictory that you say St Kilda will slide with a great "top 6 players" but then say Hawks will become premiers based on their "top 6 players". I would argue that the quality of the bottom 6 players will determine the fate of the top teams this year and I think the Saints bottom 6 is much better than the Hawks. Anyway, for what it's worth here are my predictions (ladder position in brackets). There are 2 outstanding teams: Collingwood (1) and St Kilda (2). There are 4 teams that cannot make the top 8: Brisbane (17), Richmond (14), Gold Coast (16) and West Coast (15). That leaves 11 teams fighting for positions 3-13. Adelaide (9): have lost a lot of old, experienced players (the old players were one of the reasons for their fall last year). Will take a year or two to be back in the eight, but will surprise a few teams above them. Carlton: (4): Should improve on last year, as long as Kruezer keeps fit all year (yes he is that important). Essendon (13): Good spine but the midfield isn’t deep enough. Could surprise a few higher teams early but will fall away after mid-season. Fremantle (11): Have an horrendous injury list before the season starts. Will struggle to back up last year’s surprise run. Geelong (8): When teams slide, they slide fast. Think West Coast 2008, Collingwood and Brisbane 2005, Essendon 2003 etc. I think the Cats will win the easy games by a lot, but lose quite a few by a small margin and just make the 8 by percentage. Hawthorn (3): Have the personnel to go all the way, but i don’t like all the noise coming from the Hawks about their new tactics and staying ahead of the game etc. I have them at 3 but wouldn’t be surprised if the miss the 8 altogether. Melbourne (7): Young team that should improve on last year. Injuries will take a big toll if they occur. North Melbourne (5): Brad Scott has them playing tough footy and they should also improve on last year. Port Adelaide (12): Hardest team of all to read. Have some good young players and seemed to play well under Primus last year, but overall quality doesn’t seem to be there. Could repeat 2007 and surprise us all, but I don’t think they will. Sydney (10): The loss of Roos will affect the Swans more than expected, and the best players are getting older. Western Bulldogs (6): Good team but Eade’s coaching is starting to go stale (think Swans in 2001). In summary: Top Eight 1. Collingwood 2. St Kilda 3. Hawthorn 4. Carlton 5. Kangaroos 6. Bulldogs 7. Melbourne 8. Geelong Premiers – Carlton Runners Up – St Kilda Wooden Spoon – Brisbane Lions Brownlow Medal – Andrew Swallow/Kieran Jack Coleman Medal – Chris Dawes (Collingwood) Rising Star Winner – David Swallow (Gold Coast) Big Improver – Carlton/Kangaroos Big Slider – Geelong/Fremantle Big Question Mark – Swans. Roos almost always got the best from his players. Longmire is probably a very good coach, but question remains if he can replicate Roos in this area. If he can, Swans will stay in the 8. My money says he won’t be able to.
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
Bluey spreading the word at a Gold Coast FM radio announcers conference: http://plixi.com/p/85682017 The modern AFL coach is very adept these days at selling his club (except when he lobs up to a presser after a big defeat, and then all niceties go out the window).
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
That article is a great read, even if it's mostly common sense. Last season, there was not one single round where all the favourites won - not one! And only one round when 7 favourites won. Last season, the favourites only won 113 of 176 games - yet mathematically, you are far better off going for favourites than going for the smokey. Final question for all tipsters: can you hold your nerve and pick Freo to win at the Gabba? sheez, tough one!!
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
The best bit about living in Victoria is that footy permeates every fabric of our being - and we wouldn't have it any other way. As one example, of many, I note today in the Education section of the Age, under the regular "Maths Masters", they dedicate a whole article to footy tipping. http://education.theage.com.au/cmspage.php?intid=147 You just gotta love that!!
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
Opening game in three days. Richmond v Carlton fast becoming a regular opener to the season, I think this will be the 3rd Thursday night opener they have played in succession (maybe 4th). The last two has attracted good crowds, but Richmond has been thumped on both occasions. You'd think they'd only break 80k if the Richmond supporters can be convinced of at least being competitive on the night (but no evidence yet that that will be the case).
MyLeftFoot
Roar Guru
The Age has a story today about how up to 12 will debut as an AFL player for the Suns in rd 2, most of whom will be 18/19 years old. Perversely, the Suns have the most AFL experience of all the start up clubs in AFL history!! (thanks to the likes of Ablett, Fraser, Bock, etc) The youngest team ever was fielded by Footscray in 1959 (20 years, 53 days). They won their first ever wooden spoon that year, and then made the grand final two years later (for the last time to date).
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
Apologies, that is a typo, line should read - "I expect one of Worsfold, Ratten or Voss to part ways with their club mid-season." I think that one of Worsfold, Ratten or Voss will either be sacked or asked to leave before we get to the end of this season. Text has been changed now, thanks for pointing this out Walt.
Walt
Guest
I expect one of Worsfold, Ratten or Voss not to part ways with their club mid-season. Cant quite work this line out.
TomC
Guest
I agree with most of this to an extent, but the Gold Coast stuff is way off the mark. The comparison with the Power and the Dockers doesn't hold up. Those teams recruited a bunch of mature age rookies from the SANFL and WAFL. Physically they were no different from any other team. The Power's team for their first AFL match had just one player under the age of 21, Peter Burgoyne. The Dockers had just three. The Suns will be a lot more reliant on young, less developed bodies in 2011. The Suns were comfortably beaten by the Lions in the NAB Challenge. They're going to have to get a lot better fast if they're going to beat them in the regular season.