Rugby's Olympic chance could be lost

isn't china the number one ranked sevens team for women already? i wonder if china will enter a team in the hsbc series when the new one is unveiled for next year. it would make sense for them to start building then for 2016

I missed this until now, but, the author states the likes of China would struggle to qualify. I somewhat doubt that. The Olympics is a very important event for the Chinese and I wouldn't be surprised one little bit if they hired specialist coaches a year or two before Rio alongside a group of athletes and work intensively until qualification.

It is going to be very interesting to see how the Olympics handle the costumes, party atmosphere and drinking; even more so to see their reaction when the chant goes up to "stand up, if you hate the French"... :D

I do love watching the HK sevens though. Apparentlt the tickets sold out within 3 hours and watching the crowd all dressed up in costumes, dancing, singing and watching some great rugby makes this tourney such a special one. Just wish the Aussies didn't lose to SA in the plate final! I know that Adelaide sells about 30k tickets to their event but geez I wish we had it in Sydney where the SFS would be chockers...

Perhaps I haven't communicated this correctly. What I meant by 'emerge' was that a GB team will likely compete in the series.

Matt I agree. The regional qualifying tournaments will do the most to drive Rugby 7s worldwide. Just like the FIFA World Cup qualifying tournaments are in many ways more exciting than the World Cup itself.

Even if there were three teams from Oceania, it might be a reach to assume Australia would be one of them. I'd expect NZ and Fiji to walk the first two, but would you stake your house on the outcome of a Samoa v Aus match?

But if there is no team called GB in the European 7's, how will it qualify? It would have to be selected going in, not emerging over the tournament.

Matt You could add Chile and Russia to the list of the emerging European and South American contenders. Their could be some really interesting qualifying tournaments prior to 2016.

I'm pretty sure they are planning to use the European 7s Circuit as Olympic qualifiers. If so, I'd imagine we'd see a combined GB team emerge over the current four leg series.

I have to say that I agree with your model, although I do wonder if the 'best of the rest' will instead be replaced with the World Series champion. So if NZ wins the IRB World Series the previous year then they'll automatically qualify and the next two best from Oceania would go through as the qualifiers for that Region. If Great Britain wins then there'll be 3 European teams. As for the question about "how do you qualify" it may be the case that regional qualifying tournaments will need to be created, meaning more global presence for the game and more big hype matches and tournaments to catch the medias attention in numerous countries (effectively extending the hype of Olympic glory well back before the tournament proper. Olympic inclusion is an advertising tool in itself!). You'd stage 5 Regional Qualifying Tournaments, with the two finalists in each tournament qualifying for the Olympics. This means you reduce the cost for smaller nations who want to participate, as they only have to travel within their regional zone to have a crack (as opposed to the other side of the globe). The traditional 16 team format (4 groups of 4) also allows for a lot of teams to have a go at making it (80 in total) and allows for teams of varying abilities to measure their progress between Olympic campaigns. Whether or not there'd be 16 teams in each Zone is another question? Having a look on the IRB website you'd easily get the following: Asia: (1) China, (2) Japan, (3) India, (4) Sri Lanka, (5) Pakistan, (6) South Korea, (7) Khazakstan, (8) United Arab Emirates, (9) Singapore, (10) Thailand, (11) Chinese Taipei, (12) Malaysian, (13) Phillipines, (14) Indonesia, (15) Iran, (16) Uzbekistan. The above being based on the Asian 5 Nations and feeder tournaments. Africa: (1) South Africa, (2) Kenya, (3) Namibia, (4) Zimbabwe, (5) Tunisia, (6) Ivory Coast, (7) Uganda, (8) Nigeria, (9) Ghana, (10) Madagascar, (11) Zambia, (12) Botswana, (13) Niger, (14) Mali, (15) Tanzania, (16) Morocco. The above being based on the CAR Development Trophy and the Africa Cup. Americas: (1) USA, (2) Argentina, (3) Canada, (4) Uraguay, (5) Guyana, (6) Chile, (7) Brazil - with qualification not necessary, (8) Paraguay, (9) Peru, (10) Jamaica, (11) Mexico, (12) Venezuela The above being based on the CONSUR and Carribean Sevens tournmanets. Oceania: (1) New Zealand, (2) Australia, (3) Fiji, (4) Samoa, (5) Tonga, (6) Cook Islands, (7) PNG, (8) Niue Europe: (1) Great Britain, (2) France, (3) Ireland, (4) Portugal, (5) Russia, (6) Spain, (7) Italy, (8) Romania, (9) Georgia, (10) Ukraine, (11) Moldova, (12) Netherlands, (13) Lithuania, (14) Poland, (15) Belgium, (16) Germany The above being based on the 2009 and 2010 European Sevens Championships That's 68 nations competing in 5 different tournaments, all of which can feasibly generate a competitive 12 man Sevens squad. In all regions it would also be difficult to predict who would be the two qualifiers as well. Asia has China and Japan but also a strong Korea, UAE and Khazakstan (plus future dark horses India and Sri Lanka). Africa has the experienced South African and Kenya, but also the very useful Namibia, Zimbabwe and Tunisia. America has 3 strong contenders and World Series regulars (USA, Canada and Argentina) plus rapdily improving nations like Mexico, Guyana and Uraguay. Oceania is the Region of Death, there is just no way that NZ, Australia, Fiji and Samoa can fit (let alone Tonga, PNG or the Cooks) into just two spots! Then of course there is Europe, with a whole plethora of possibilites (aside from the obvious Great Britain) surrounding current XV's powers Ireland, Italy and France. Constant XV's battlers Romania and Georgia plus a whole host of storng Seven's nations (Spain, Russian, Portugal). The qualifying tournaments will in fact probably do more to promote the game to new audiences and nations than the 12 team finals anyway (as the majority of teams who qualify will already be WELL aware of rugby anyway).

Now I'm lost. Most are assuming the annual world series will be the qualifying vehicle for the olympics. in these team gb discussions how is it assumed the team qualifies?

Gavin Henson There won't be a GB team competing annually on the World Series, just for the Olympics. Any funding would come from the British Olympic Committee and would likely be distributed amongst the individual programs. The issue has already been resolved. Effectively there will be combined training camps and trials to determined the composition of the team. The Nth Irish players are a bit of issue. Suggestions are that a special disposition will be made for them to compete for Ireland if they choose to enter a team. If not they are eligible to trial for team GB.

So who funds that team every year in the series? does each union contribute? what if there are no players from one country in the team one year? what team do nth ireland players play for? if they play for ireland in the series but ireland dont make the olympics can they then play for the gb team.... i'd say there are a couple of issues or at least discussion points to be sorted out on that one.

They have to compete as GB. It's their only choice, it's a non issue.

I read an article in the Guardian today about Handball at the 2012 London Olympics and that program will consist of 12 mens' and 12 womens' teams. I think the same numbers apply to basketball. So it would be difficult to argue to the IOC that Rugby 7s in Rio (as a new Olympic sport) should have 16 mens' and 16 womens' teams - especially given that Rugby 7s was already knocked back by the IOC for the Beijing games when the IRB proposed only a mens' competition. It was only accepted by the IOC for Rio on the equal participation of men and women. I expect Europe will have 2 places, Asia 2 places (the goal of 7s is to grow the sport in new regions), Oceania 2 places, the Americas 2 places, Africa 2 places, and Brazil, as host, one place. The final 12th place would be awarded to the winner of the best of the rest tournament, which on current form would see Australia battling either Samoa or Fiji (presuming one of them had already qualified with NZ as the Oceania representatives).

It is. But this IMO shows 1) exactly why it is great to grow the game in new countries and 2) that many 'traditional' rugby fans don't understand what 7s is all about. the best analogy is perhaps 20/20 cricket vs One Dayers/Tests. Cricket fans would far rather win the Ashes or the One Dayer World Cup. However 20/20 is great for bringing in huge crowds, huge money, great fun entertainment, and is probably the best vehicle for introducing cricket to new countries. In a sense traditional rugby powers 'talk up' sevens a bit to the minnows. ie we don't really care if we don't win the olympics compared to a RWC, grand slam etc and we could all be much better if we genuinely put our best players into sevens year in year out. But if you are a Kenya and a USA and you pull off a tournament final or victory, or you have a chance to medal in the olympics at 'rugby' then the populace and the press take that as a huge boost to rugby union in general. Look at the USA. They want to be no.1 at anything they do and so they should. In 7s they have a sensible chance of being thereabouts in 2016 or 2020. whereas in 15s the timeframe would be much longer. So 7s is a great marketing tool to top (non pro nfl/nba etc) athletes to play 7s. All 7s players also play 15s for their club or university or high school, which helps grow the game. The non rugby public is far more likely to pay attention if the media is talking about a potential medal in the olympics than a lowly RWC place in a strange tournament in a country like nz they have never heard of.

The murrayfield tournament. Wales does not currently host a leg. the GB point will be a very fascinating one. The england 7s team for example is now a highly funded professionally run development mechanism for players and for rugby in general funded by the RFU. Will any of England/Wales/Scotland want to compete in the circuit as GB? and of course there is the nth ireland spanner in the works as well. Ultimately I predict these countries will HAVE to compete as GB in the sevens circuit although they won't like it much. Otherwise the IOC will not allow GB into the olympic sevens and the general public (as opposed to the rugby fans only) will not accept any stubborness.

but by 2015 who knows....