If round two of the AFL season gave us an inkling of what to expect from season 2011, round three seems to have confirmed it.
Although it can be foolhardy to make sweeping judgments early in a season, the weekend’s matches have re-affirmed that the seventeen AFL clubs are divided into four tiers: the contenders, the would-be kings, the top-eight hopefuls, and the cellar dwellers.
Collingwood disposed of poor sides in the opening two rounds, and Friday night’s blockbuster match against Carlton was their first match against opposition of any great note. Though Collingwood won, the Blues showed plenty of fight and removed any air of invincibility about last year’s premiers.
It is true, the Magpies are an exceptional side – probably better than last season – but unbeatable? Not by a long shot.
Collingwood’s best is thrilling to watch, but Friday night’s match demonstrated that when the Magpies try and play too cute, they can get into trouble.
Fellow premiership contenders Geelong, Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs will need no invitation to take advantage of this.
Sydney and Fremantle both had impressive wins on the road on Saturday, and look like they will again play finals football this year.
The most telling result from the weekend was undoubtedly St Kilda’s nine goal loss to bogey side Essendon. Winless after the first two rounds, this match was an opportunity for the Saints to stand up and be counted, but the club failed dismally.
The inability to lift was all the more disappointing given it was captain Nick Riewoldt’s 200th AFL match.
St Kilda is a club in serious trouble, and their premiership window has all but slammed shut after three grand finals in two years without success.
No side has won the flag from outside the top four since Adelaide in 1998, and the Saints will struggle to reach the top four given their poor start. They’re a team on the slide.
Conversely, the other powerhouse of the past few years is proving that news of its demise has been greatly exaggerated. The Cats are three from three, and seem intent on proving the pre-season doubters wrong. Despite losing Gary Ablett to the Gold Coast, they remain a team jam-packed with talent.
Geelong have been the hunted over the past three seasons, but with that mantle going to Collingwood this year, the Cats can go quietly about their business as the hunter, without the burden of being expected to win every time they take to the field.
Hawthorn and the Western Bulldogs both had confidence-building wins on the weekend, and will probably make up the top four with Collingwood and Geelong by season’s end.
At the other end of the ladder, the cellar dwellers this season look just as clear cut as the top four.
Port Adelaide, Gold Coast and Brisbane have all had horror starts to the season. Richmond and North Melbourne have fared slightly better, but all five look incapable of making the top eight.
Essendon and Adelaide are the hardest to read.
The Crows were expected to beat Fremantle in Adelaide on Saturday but were never in the match. Essendon continued its good form this season by beating the Saints, but it remains to be seen if this is part of a honeymoon phase for new coach James Hird, or whether the Bombers can seriously challenge this year.
The contenders
• Collingwood Magpies
• Western Bulldogs
• Hawthorn Hawks
• Geelong Cats
The would-be-kings
• Fremantle Dockers
• Sydney Swans
• Carlton Blues
The hopefuls
• Adelaide Crows
• Essendon Bombers
• St Kilda Saints
• West Coast Eagles
• Melbourne Demons
The cellar dwellers
• North Melbourne Kangaroos
• Richmond Tigers
• Port Adelaide Power
• Gold Coast Suns
• Brisbane Lions
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