It’s well known that Super rugby success, or failure for that matter, doesn’t translate to either result in the international arena. However, after nine rounds there isn’t a whole lot of optimism drifting through South African rugby circles.
Sure, the Stormers are currently in the top four and the Sharks are well placed for a late charge. However, there are some very worrying signs appearing that must be questioned and hopefully answered.
Conservatism and Possession:
Historically not the most adventurous, South African sides have tended to rely on a fusion of belligerent defence, forward set piece dominance and tactical kicking.
This is the current game plan of the leading South African conference sides the Stormers, Sharks and Bulls in that order of execution. The Bulls being the largest practitioners but poorest executors at this juncture.
There is nothing overtly wrong with this game plan providing your execution is spot on and the opposition can be pressured into making mistakes you can capitalise on.
Therein lies the issue, when other more possession orientated sides keep the ball and make a mistake it’s often in the wrong part of the field to capitalise on. So usually what happens is the SA side will then kick the ball back to that side, who will then run it back to repeat the cycle.
This is defensively very taxing and provides limited opportunity which when presented have to be capitalised on. So where to from here?
It is an interesting fact that the most adventurous sides are the cellar dwellers the Lions and Cheetahs. Their problem is the complete opposite, having a lack of defensive and set piece structure. It would almost seem that the SA sides are incapable of marrying the two approaches. Almost.
I honestly thought the Sharks and to a lesser extend the Stormers were breaking the mould but both teams have since reverted to type perhaps in a bid to emulate last years winning Bulls blueprint.
Pieter de Villiers:
Not the most popular man unless you are searching for a humorous sound byte. The head coach has managed to avoid the usual issues surrounding his role and come up with new conspiracies and divisiveness all by himself.
Despite the odd contextual issue this man does not inspire confidence and his stubbornness could be the greatest stumbling block to the Springboks defending their title.
The Breakdown:
Long has been the fascination in big tall heavy ball carrying loosies. As such we tend to develop, or should I say promote, very few real to the ball players. The exception is Brussouw but we cant have our hopes pinned on a single player.
Players like Francois Louw, Botes and Stegmann need to become more accurate in their play. It’s not just down to the “fetchers” but an overall systemic failure in the approach to the breakdown.
The SA sides and the Boks have stopped trying to force turnovers through the ruck. Instead, committing fewer numbers to put out more runners or more defenders in the line ala circa ‘10. This has led them to be quite exposed to the aggressive counter rucking employed by several Kiwi sides and the Reds who flood this area.
Although there is a certain amount of nous in this with the first through the gate pushing up the advantage line for the second to then wheel in from the side. This sideways shove is negating the defence pretty easily and opening up the ruck for turnover. Legal or not we have to stop approaching the ruck like it was 2010 all over again.
There aren’t many opportunities to get hold of the ball but given how many rucks are afforded when playing a possession based team this is definitely one of them.
The Bulls:
For a long time now the core of the Bok squad in both personnel and gameplay. Recent humiliations to the premier sides of the other conferences the Reds and Crusaders have thrown several veteran Bok’s form into question and raised huge concerns over the game plan to be employed by the Boks.
After all its easier for players to play what they know and so having the Boks mirror the Bulls has been pretty logical. Now that the Bulls cant even play their own game how are those players going to fare in the national team?
Key Players:
They say a world cup winning squad should have around 5-6 of the best players in the world in their position. It’s debatable that the Boks have just one at the moment in Bismarck du Plessis.
Which brings us onto the key players within the Bok squad. Those that should be in a rich vein of form but aren’t and in some cases should be out of the pecking order completely. Can Smit be carried? Will we ever see Spies ’09 again? What happened to Habana? Is the world cup campaign one too far for Matfield and Botha?
Other concerns hinge around injuries. Will Bekker and Brussouw get back to full fitness? Will Juan Smith be able to make it at all?
The biggest concern however has got to be Fourie du Preez. Since having shoulder surgery he has been a shadow of himself. Admittedly his forwards have been giving him terrible ball but he should be a player that grabs a game by the scruff of the neck.
In the coming months some tough decisions will need to be made on some of these core players and in some cases I hope the decision comes from themselves.
Tactics:
Might is right and if it isn’t you are wrong – and so we play on. For a team to beat the Boks they just need to front up to our physicality or play around it. Either way we have no answers. There is no Plan B, only Plan A. We need adaptable variation.
The Future:
There are a few certain truths and a whole lot of ifs but all is not lost though. Even employing our current style and dragging the opposition into an arm wrestle on our terms will most likely result in a win. It may also do the game no favours but there is an element of truth to PdV’s statement about conservatism winning world cups.
It’s less risk to be defensive than attacking and providing the execution is spot on and we play inside the other teams half we can grind most down. The players also have the golden currency of experience and know what it takes to win a world cup. It’s just a question if the class of ’07 have the legs to do it again in ’11.
Now on to the ifs. If the Sharks can get back playing the game where they left off at the CC final. If the Stormers backline starts to score tries. These two teams could then form a formidable core for the Boks with existing combinations. A side that can both play tactically and possession orientated with defensive steel. If some of the current crop can re-discover their form even better.
If PdV can actually coach, do what he says he will and make the hard decisions around the game plan and players. Then we could see Alberts, Beast, Bekker, Aplon, Basson, Lambie, Fourie, Brussouw, Bismarck and perhaps Vermuelen carrying the team through.
The biggest hurdle in the end could be the time to adapt and this is why we need the Super rugby sides to show the way. It’s a long shot but I certainly wouldn’t be writing the Boks off yet.
Ben S
Roar Guru
Personally I would play James because his tactical kicking is as good as his running game, IMO, which would allow that mix of play, but then that leaves the issue of goalkicking - Frans Steyn perhaps? I'm also not sure that Frans Steyn is any sort of answer at 15: he is caught out of position on occasion, is prone to moments of losing concentration and attempts too many drop goals. I'd rather see him in the midfield.
TembaVJ
Guest
Brian you are talking about Bekker 2 seasons ago, dont know if you have watch much of his game but he has become all of the above. He is rough and tough, great in the jumping and very mobile
Brian
Guest
You can't (shouldn't) play two similar locks together - ie. Matfield and Bekker. You need one athletic lock (Matfield OR Bekker) and one bruiser type (ie. Bakkies or Flip).
Rusty
Roar Guru
I rate Keegan but if there is one thing we arent short of its quality loosies. The key will be getting a balanced backrow that suit whatever game plan the mad Mexican wants us to play
Rusty
Roar Guru
I hope not - the kid has talent but his timing this season is letting him down a bit
Rusty
Roar Guru
Ricky 'KFC' is so far past it, it is amazing AD on the other hand has at least added some zip into what it quite a poor Sharks midfield everytime he has come on. Tell you who has looked pretty good for the Sharks and that Ndungane. Has made lots of meters and chooses great angles to run
Rusty
Roar Guru
Agree with pretty much all of that. If the execution is spot on then they are a chance but the problem is it isnt. We will defend 15 phases of attack, finally get the ball through turnover or penalty. If by turnover and we are in the wrong '22 then we will kick it back for another 15 phases of defense. If its a penalty then we will bang it down field or kick for posts depending on field position. If its down field then its off the top ball or maul followed by the forwards trying to get us on the front foot. Usually around this point after doing all the hardwork of getting position, winning set piece, driving it up for around 5 phases we will cough it up/get turned over but usually unforced. See how easy it is to map out the Bok game plan, true its a blue print for alot of teams but I want to see us mix it up and occasionally run it when our opposition expect the kick deep. I especially would like to see some back and interplay during this process rather than a pod breaks off or straight up the middle. I dont think its late in the day as long as the selection side is addressed, the Super rugby sides can lead the way in this manner and it will come down to plucking the right combinations to support this play
steve
Guest
I think Russow, Skyes, johann muller and franco van der mervwe all have a fair shout at lock for the boks. I think another very underrated loosie in S.A is Keegan Daniels. He is in some fine form and could really bring a different dimension to the Boks game, particularly if he came of the bench. JP Pietersen is gaining some form again and it would be interesting to see how he goes for the rest of the tournament. That try he scored against the Lions was a cracker, reads the ball well in the air. Another option for the Boks at wing maybe. The S.A sides dominated their New Zealand counterparts last year and there was sense of despair out of New Zealand after the tournament until the All blacks got together and began to dismantle all in front of them, this pattern could repeat itself:)
Ben S
Roar Guru
Rusty, I don't think any massive tactical rethink is necessary, rather a selection rethink. SA were poor in a lot of areas last season, but in the 3N when the forwards got go forward ball and played close to the ruck the Boks gained a lot of ground. It was the little things that let them down. IMO the only options are to stick with the same tactical approach and throw in a couple of players, or to try a running game with Butch James at the helm, but it is pretty late in the day for that.
German rugbyfan
Guest
Here's my best bok team, from a foreigners point of view... 1- Beast (the one the crowd screams the loudest for) 2- Bismarck ( the German army-tank) 3- JDP ( brother of the German army-tank) 4- Bekker ( he was good playing tennis for us) 5- Matfield ( oud, Maar nog nicht koud nicht) 6- Burger ( my favourite junk food, they should make a movie about this guy) 7- Juan Smit ( the unseen hero of SA rugby, people in the Netherlands love him, heerenveen area, dutch dont watch rugby) 8- Alberts ( ask the welsh, the irish, the scots and the poms about this guy) 9- Hougaard ( he may not yet be as good as FDP as a scrummie, but he has the X-factor....and he has dancing shoes) 10- Lambie ( need i say more, be glad he became a bok as soon as it was possible, cos he was eligible for Scotland) 11-Basson ( i gont know if you'v notiched but this guy is a real classic winger, unlike habana, he doesnt just have speed, he is also a X-factor) 12- De jongh ( he has an unbelieveble side step, and he's defense is much better then Jean's) 13- Fourie ( most importantly, he is a finisher) 14- Mvovo (give him space, close your eyes for a second, see what happens) 15- F.Steyn ( all he needs are a couple CC or Tri-nations games to get him up to speed, i truelly believe other nations are afraid of him) Now...there you have it, a good enough team to go toe to toe with the AB come semi-finals. Someone should kidnap De clown, brain wash him into thinking he's from England, cut his 16th century spanish pirate moustache, bleach his skin and secretly ship him of to London, let him coach there! the poms will never know the difference. My Afrikaans is bad but...maak die span reg voordat de KAK in ons gevreete spat.....
Pius Silver
Guest
Great stuff Rusty. This forum doesn't get a lot of Saffer input and it's nice to be kept up to speed on the ins and outs of Bok rugby. A lot of good responses from your countrymen, too. We all puzzle over PdV's selections as we do Lievremont's and even some of Jonno's. Deans has only two or three spots to be uncertain about while Henry has 30 players who are ready to step up right now. He probably has the hardest job of all because he has to sift through all the quality. Hope to hear from you after next weekend's games.
Rusty
Roar Guru
OJ - It would depend how they didi it. The Bulls won last year quite convincingly but the gameplan they used was ineffective at the international level. So if the Stormers win by shutting people out and splitting their defenses with incisive running - then yes I will be very pleased because its an almost all Bok backline.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
What if the Stormers win the Super 14? Does that change your outlook any? I still think it's way too soon to be reaching any conclusions especially when World Cup games will come down to the ref's whistle. North Hemisphere refs usually hammer the All Blacks for their work at the breakdown so who's to say the 2010 approach won't work at the WC? If the Boks have strong ball carrying forwards who can link and offload with the backs then I don't see why they can't play like the Sharks at their best.
Lee
Guest
Kind of agree about Spies - I noticed that too(him gaining on Ione), the only problem is that he is an 8, not a winger. If he did what he should be doing around the park as well as putting in 80m chases he would be perfect. He just isn't having an impact around the park though.
TembaVJ
Guest
Stuff happens I was pointing to the 07 away team for 3N when they left all the big guns at home. The did not win anything but they looked good running with ball in hand. I hear you on Pierre Spies, he will sign over to Europe after the RWC this might do him well, he needs to learn to stay on his feet a bit more... something a good 8 should do. I have always thought he should drop about 5-7KG and move back to the wing. Even Jake White said the other day Spies needs to add to his game as they have figured him out. He should spend some time with SBW and develop that off load. :)
stuff happens
Guest
Rusty I wouldn't be writing the 'Boks off yet either because you have as talented a group of players as any country including NZ. Plus you have an excellent blend of experience & youth. The problem as many of the posts confirm lies in the leadership groups in SA & the failure to embrace new patterns of attacking play as NZ has done.Unless the 'Boks coaching group adapt you won't win the RWC. Interesting article posted by Temba above because it was clear in the TN last year that the 'Boks weren't as fit as the AB's. This should never have been allowed to happen. Finally something on Pierre Spies. During the race to the line in Digby Ione's try for the Reds last weekend look at the players chasing him. At one stage one of the Bulls is running faster than Ione & closing. Who? Yep, Pierre Spies. Spies suffers from poor coaching. He's one of the most remarkable athletes in rugby but most of the time the Bulls & the 'Boks haven't worked out how to make the most of him.
Lee
Guest
Too many cooks... And 6 months out from a WC, surely this stuff should have been done before the November tour last year(with regards to fitness/conditioning). Seems like PDV is prepping all his excuses...
Lee
Guest
I had...now I am more depressed about the WC...
TembaVJ
Guest
Need I say more http://www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/Springboks/Div-hunts-Jakes-fitness-guru-20110418
TembaVJ
Guest
Lee you forgot AD Jacobs and Ricky January.