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League and union fans can be forgiven for wringing their hands at the news the AFL has completed a terrific new TV deal. But they can be assured that while this is great news for the fans of the Southern Game, it will not significantly change the sports landscape in NSW and QLD.
To begin, congratulations to the AFL for the wonderful way they have run their game over the past two decades.
The game’s administrators have methodically and meticulously built their sport to the point where it is a benchmark for other leagues around the country and indeed the world.
Their unification of the game under one umbrella, management of intellectual property, stadium development and of course media management is something to be cherished.
Make no mistake, this envy is particularly tinged with green in the northern states where the games are still the enclave of the dreaded ‘old boys clubs’ with greedy old men clinging to power at the detriment of the greater good.
The announcement of the TV bonanza is further great news for the AFL and all of their fans, and will no doubt be accompanied by forum boasts of coming northern domination and the hysterical scaremongering in the Daily Astonisher that “The RedBallers are coming, The Redballers are coming!”
But there is no reason to think that the extra money and extra teams will have any effect on League or Union in NSW and QLD. Any argument to suggest otherwise is full of holes.
The Next Generation Argument – It will win over the kids
The AFL is targeting the kids with the very playable AusKick program and lots of incentives for youngsters to follow the game and drag their parents along. Surely, this will slowly but surely win out?
Well right now, more kids play Football then any other sport, and by a big margin. The same was true ten years ago, twenty years ago and probably thirty years ago. This massive junior numbers domination has not turned into a similar domination to support in the professional game. For the same reason that we don’t all sit around on the weekend and watch adults playing four square, there isn’t a relationship between what we watch as adults and what we played as kids.
The TV coverage Argument – More fans will be converted by the better coverage
This would be true if the coverage COULD get any better. Right now, there are two games of AFL live into Sydney on free to air every week, the same as the number of NRL games and two more then the number of Super XV games. Furthermore, almost every TV sports broadcast on the free to air channels begins with the AFL. The coverage is already excellent, better then the other two sports which leaves it with less room to improve and gain more fans. Showing the Friday night blockbuster live into Sydney and Brisbane will be fantastic for the existing fans but will it attract more fans?
The Two Teams Argument – Twice the teams, twice the fans
The GWS and Suns franchises will indeed double the number of AFL teams in the Northern States but rather then double the fans, they are more likely to cannibalise the existing teams.
Both the Swans and Lions are very well run, have wonderful media exposure and have been hugely successful on the field, indeed, the Lions are the first team in fifty years to win three flags in a row.
However, this has not translated into growth of fan numbers with numbers stagnating in recent years, indeed both teams are now amongst the lowest in the AFL in both memberships and attendance. There is nothing in the off field performance of the Lions or Swans to suggest that there are enough fans for another team poised at the door.
The Christopher Columbus Argument – Millions of untapped fans
There are millions of people living in the Gold Coast and Western Sydney that don’t have an AFL team so they are ripe for a team. They also don’t have an Opera House, but no-one seems to think a concert hall will turn the folk of Mt Druitt into Music Lovers.
While there are a lot of people living in the area, that does not mean they are ready to start following the AFL, it just means there are a lot of people living in the area. These people have had access to regular AFL on TV and live at stadiums close to their homes and they haven’t supported it (Which begs the question why they need their very own team to not support?)
The Jesus Argument – ‘Sheeds’ will win them over
Kevin Sheedy has entered Western Sydney like John the Baptist, shaking his fist, raising his voice and ready to spread the word that the great Southern Game is on its way.
This is a disastrous choice by the otherwise faultless AFL. It is human nature to recoil when someone tells you that you’re wrong, your shackles raise and hostility builds.
Kevin is gadding about town with a smug attitude that he is right and everyone else is wrong and eventually we will all be following him.
The most successfully evangelists have commanded respect with their charisma, knowledge, persistence and above all statesmen-like demeanour. Not by announcing beforehand that you are wrong and they are right. He is currently making things worse.
The Crusades Argument – The Indigenous game will win over at the end
Many AFL fans take great pride in the knowledge that their sport is distinctly Australian and is easily the most popular in the country. Some have taken that pride to the next level with the belief that the popularity of their sport will grow to eventually win over Australians in NSW and QLD that currently follow other sports.
The thinking is that if these people can just get exposed to the great game, then they will see the light and follow it.
This is the same thinking that led to the Holy Crusades of Christian Armies heading to the Holy lands to convert the Heathens, the same logic that led Formula 1 to put races into China and Bahrain instead of France and Austria. It didn’t work then, and there is nothing different in this scenario that suggests it will work now.
The vast majority of AFL fans are content in the knowledge that their code is mighty. They enjoy great media coverage, fantastic stadiums, enormous crowds (some of the biggest in the world) and can be assured that their game is exceptionally well run.
However, there is no reason to believe the minority who think they are also going to change the landscape of sport in NSW and QLD. It will remain a fringe sport with a decent number of devoted fans dwarfed in numbers by the followers of the Rugby codes.
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