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Collingwood have improved, but are still vulnerable

Expert
12th May, 2011
24
3074 Reads
Dale Thomas of Collingwood marks over Daniel jackson of Richmond during the AFL Round 04 match between the Richmond Tigers and the Collingwood Magpies at the MCG, Melbourne. Slattery Images

Dale Thomas of Collingwood marks over Daniel jackson of Richmond during the AFL Round 04 match between the Richmond Tigers and the Collingwood Magpies at the MCG, Melbourne. Slattery Images

After seven rounds of football, Collingwood are still the raging favourite to win this year’s premiership. No surprises there – they’ve been in fine form – but if we are to dig a little deeper, it’s not unreasonable to suggest they may even be a better side to what they were last season.

That’s because the biggest question mark hovering over the Pies last year and even going into this year – their goal kicking – has been addressed.

In fact, it’s been more than addressed. They are now the best in the competition at it.

The stats say that 58.08 per cent of Collingwood’s scoring shots are goals, the highest figure in the competition. The next highest club, Essendon at 57.77 per cent, are only as high as they are because of a 31.11 game against the Gold Coast Suns. Outside of the Pies and Bombers, no side presently in the top eight has an accuracy rate above 50 per cent.

Perhaps more remarkable than that, there have been only three quarters this season where Collingwood have scored more behinds than goals.

Even Travis Cloke, seemingly the chief offender last season on this topic, has kicked 16.7. The other two players at the top of the club’s goal kicking list are Chris Dawes (with 14.7) and Jarryd Blair (12.5).

This is in stark contrast to 2010, the year Pies put in performances such as: a 4.17 game against St Kilda, a 6.14 game against Geelong, a 9.22 game against Melbourne and, of course, that 9.14 game against St Kilda in Grand Final Mk I. Let’s not forget the Pies would not have needed a replay had they kicked straight the first time around.

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After all that, going into this year, it was hard not to think of goal kicking as a serious question mark for this team. I don’t think we can say that anymore.

That said, you could still describe the Pies as “vulnerable”. As the team they play tonight, Geelong, can attest, being the dominant side of the competition while attempting to go back to back doesn’t always have a fairytale ending – the Cats lost just one game in 2008 prior to that Grand Final against Hawthorn, and we all know how that turned out.

There’s two lessons to take from the ’08 example. The first is that complacency can be a very dangerous thing; sides need to be challenged and remember, the Pies’ game plan hasn’t changed dramatically since last year.

The second lesson is that sometimes the dominance of a side at the top of the ladder can mask the threats that lurk below them.

So let’s not go handing the 2011 premiership to the Pies just yet.

To their credit, however, when the best reason you can muster for a professionally-run club like Collingwood not to win the premiership is the potential for complacency, well, they probably stand a pretty good chance.

As for tonight’s blockbuster, we’ll get an interesting glimpse at where Chris Scott’s Cats stand against the benchmark team of the competition.

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Their undefeated start has been impressive, although Leigh Matthews was right to worry about the side’s key forwards in his AFL.com.au column this week. Put simply, more is needed from the trio of James Podsiadly, Tom Hawkins and Cam Mooney.

Normally I would tip Collingwood for this game without any hesitation. However, I’m holding back – tipping Collingwood in a close one – for a few reasons.

Firstly, the stats paint a very interesting picture about teams coming off the bye – not just in the AFL, but the VFL, WAFL and SANFL, too – so the Pies would be forgiven if they too struggled with it. The expected wet weather – a factor that almost always favours Geelong – throws another curveball into the equation.

Add that to the fact Darren Jolly is out – while Brad Ottens is fit and firing for the Cats – and I’ll predict only a 15-point Collingwood win.

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