This week, the NBA had its annual Draft Lottery, which was won by the Cleveland Cavaliers. Now, I am admittedly what you may call a ‘Basketball Tragic’, so I actually tuned in to see which team would ‘win’ the first pick in the 2011 NBA Draft.
The system is relatively straightforward; fourteen balls representing the fourteen teams that did not make the playoffs are put into a machine, with the numbers 1-14 on them.
Then four balls are chosen from the potential 1001 combinations that could be emerge. Each team is given a certain amount of combinations – balls – based on their respective finishing position that season.
The team that finishes last has a 25% chance of winning the lottery, which then operates on a sliding scale down to the fourteenth side, who has a 0.5% chance.
As I sat watching the event, I wondered why the AFL didn’t implement a similar process. I believe that it would be a great benefit to the competition as a whole, and would help the league in many ways.
But before talking about the benefits, here’s how I propose the system could work.
Using our current finals system, there will be nine teams that do not qualify for the finals in 2011. Those teams would then be given a specified number of lottery balls, which would of course be decided, depending on their ladder position.
The AFL would not need to completely create a new system, as the NBA already makes great use of a thorough, well-constructed method in place.
I believe there to be two main benefits of such a system and they are the reasons why I feel that the AFL should not wait to put such a procedure in place.
The first – and most obvious way it would benefit the league – is that it would lead to even more television coverage.
Imagine, if, as a part of the AFL’s Grand Final week festivities, we had the AFL Draft Lottery.
With the Brownlow Medal Ceremony taking place on the Monday, it would be very possible to hold the lottery on the Wednesday evening.
The league would be able to sell advertising rights for the broadcast, which they could stretch into a 90-minute program.
Fans of those teams who were in the lottery would certainly watch – to see how their team goes – and the element of uncertainty and drama would attract fans of all teams.
This extra exposure and coverage would all crucially add up to more revenue for the AFL.
Secondly, it would help rid the AFL of one of its more contentious issues of the past few seasons, tanking.
It cannot be said that tanking would vanish completely, yet the NBA serves as evidence that it would be drastically reduced.
If the finishing position did not guarantee the teams selection in the draft, tanking would become a much harder sell for clubs.
With the current AFL system, it’s possible for clubs to sell the notion of tanking to its fans, with the promise of the highly coveted number-one draft selection. The argument that another couple of losses in an already miserable season, to guarantee having the first pick of the next generation of AFL superstars, understandably appeals to fans.
However, if this guarantee were removed, it would be much harder for teams to justify the use of tanking as a tactic.
That would mean that even teams in the lower reaches of the ladder, would contest every match to the fullest, even in the latter stages of the year.
This would mean more entertaining football for fans, which would translate into higher attendances, which again would raise AFL revenue.
The idea of having a Draft Lottery is not new around AFL circles, as it has been discussed many times in the past.
But I think the AFL is wasting valuable time – and losing potential revenue – by not applying what has proven to be a successful method to our game.
I know that people will say that we already have enough rule changes to our game and that the league needs to stop tampering with what makes AFL great.
Yet personally, I’d rather have a change to the draft system, which then means that I could watch entertaining matches played out by every team. Regardless of what round it was, or what position that team was on the ladder.
Who’s in your ultimate team? Pick the best team and compete with other fans for daily prizes on Draftstars. For the best odds on the game try out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Think. Is this a bet you really want to place? Set a deposit limit.
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Now that was a quick change of mind!
