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Who has their kicking boots and radar going?

31st May, 2011
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Roar Rookie
31st May, 2011
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We’re down to the wire in the inaugural Super Rugby, and with semi-final spots up for grabs or possibly pride in the office tipping competition, who has the edge in getting the kicks over?

Is there a difference in the form between the top kickers when it comes to penalties and conversion? Is there a difference between teams, between conferences?

I’ve been tracking the kicking stats for all the kickers in the competition, and before I get too far I have to mention difficulty as well as kicking form. I’m able to do this as I have a kicking database of ten years with the spots they are taken from, including conditions, ground etc.

Difficulty certainly comes into it. As a comparison, take Aaron Cruden (Hurricanes) and Elton Jantjies (Lions), both 100 per cent from their six attempts in Round 15.

Statistically, taking into account difficulty of each kick, Janties had the harder kicks as only seven per cent of the world’s professional rugby kickers could have repeated the same feat.

On the other hand, Cruden’s kicks were largely out in front so 23 per cent of the world’s kickers would have got those. While 100 per cent for both got the incorporating difficulty, Jantjies, was the better of the two kickers.

Difficulty can also play a part in the confidence of the kicker. Sias Ebersohn first penalty kick probability of success was 17 per cent, but he was asked to take it instead of the Cheetahs risking their poor lineout security. Arguably missing impacted on confidence and could have been behind his surprise second kick miss (which had a success probability of 95 per cent, due to its proximity to the posts).

Exploring form, I’ve eliminated anyone who wasn’t kicking regularly or cameos by setting a minimum of 10 place kick attempts for either penalties or conversions. Sorry Mike Harris (Reds) and Gary Van Aswegen (Stormers) who are 100 per cent from their eight and four attempts respectively.

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Over a season you should get a good, possibly an even, distribution of kicks to analyse.

Despite a lot of forum criticism, Matt Giteau is leading the competition when it comes to penalties at 84 per cent or 30 from 34 attempts. Cruden is tied for the second spot with Peter Grant (Stormers) both on 84 per cent (16/19 and 31/37 respectively). By conference South Africa just leads with 74 per cent (193/262) over Australia 73 per cent (167/230) and New Zealand 68 per cent (173/256).

Following Giteau in the Australian conference is Danny Cipriani 77 per cent (20/26), James O’Connor 75 per cent (45/60), Quade Cooper 70 per cent (32/46) and Kurtley Beale 69 per cent (24/35).

Conversion form doesn’t necessarily follow for penalties, particularly the Australian conference. Beale is eighth overall leading the Australian conversion table with 73 per cent (19/26) ahead of Cooper 69 per cent (24/35), Giteau 64 per cent (16/25), O’Connor 64 per cent (7/11) and Cipriani 63 per cent (12/19).

All the Australian team’s kickers are behind the top five competition conversion kickers of Grant 91 per cent (10/11), Ebersohn 90 per cent (27/30), Sharks’ Patrick Lambie 85 per cent (22/26), Blues’ Luke McAlister 83 per cent (20/24) and Crusaders’ Dan Carter 82 per cent (18/22).

No surprise, then, that the South African conference lead conversions with 76 per cent (122/160) over New Zealand 68 per cent (109/161) and Australia 65 per cent (94/145).

However the stats don’t tell the whole story, O’Connor and Cooper might be off the pace but we know from Hong Kong last year, and against the Crusaders on Sunday, both are kickers who can deliver on the important kicks, despite what the stats were leading up to that kick.

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So good form might mean a kicker gets tougher kicks, which then impacts on form. By my analysis, difficulty is game by game and form is over a competition.

There is an old saying, form is temporary, class is permanent.

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