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And then there were four. After eleven rounds of the season, the top four sides have cleared away from those below. The winner of this year’s AFL premiership will be Geelong, Collingwood, Hawthorn or Carlton. Is it that simple?
Although the season is not yet halfway through, these four sides have shown themselves to be superior to the rest of the competition.
Each have sufficient experience to suggest that come the end of the minor rounds, the top four will remain unchanged.
Geelong sits unbeaten at the top of the ladder after easily disposing of the disappointing Bulldogs on Saturday.
Losing Gary Ablett to the Gold Coast at the end of last season has just allowed the Cats to demonstrate that they are far from a one-man team.
Ablett’s departure has allowed Joel Selwood to continue his development into one of the best players in the competition, and although they have an older list, the Cats are not yet ready to descend from the top of the AFL tree.
Having won the premiership in 2007 and 2009, the Cats are proven big game players, and they will fancy themselves a good chance of making it three premierships from five years.
Reigning premier Collingwood remain favourites to go back-to-back, despite a narrow loss to Geelong earlier this year. The Magpies have the best coach in the competition in Mick Malthouse, and appear a cut above the vast majority of the sides they have faced.
The Magpies have class all over the field, and Travis Cloke and Chris Dawes in the Collingwood forward line are continuing to develop into the best big-man combination in the game.
The only stumbling block that the Magpies may encounter lies in the coaching box rather than the playing field.
With Malthouse set to hand over the reigns as head coach to Nathan Buckley for season 2012 and beyond, it remains to be seen whether this peculiar arrangement will unsettle the side in its quest to win back-to-back premierships.
Third-placed Hawthorn has possibly the most talented playing list in the competition, and both Geelong and Collingwood will be wary of meeting the star-studded Hawks side come September.
Lance Franklin has recaptured his best form this year and is the most devastating forward in the competition.
The Hawks midfield and forward lines are stockpiled with stars, but the defensive unit of Hawthorn could prove its weak link when the side meets fellow premiership aspirants at the pointy end of the season.
Rounding out the top four are the Blues, who are led by arguably the best player in the competition in Chris Judd. After making the finals in the past two seasons but not progressing past the first week, it seems the Blues will go much deeper into September action this year.
Of the sides outside the top four, none look able to seriously challenge for the premiership.
Sydney sits fifth, but the Swans don’t have the star quality to match it with the top four sides, and are unlikely to push their way into the top four.
After finishing last season with the wooden spoon, the resurgence of sixth-placed West Coast has been impressive, but to expect the Eagles to climb from cellar dweller to serious premiership contender in the space of twelve months is asking too much of John Worsfold’s young side.
Seventh-placed Essendon started the year with a bang, but have faltered recently, and the honeymoon period under favourite son James Hird appears to be over.
With the initial euphoria surrounding Hird’s appointment starting to wear off, the Bombers will have to find ways to maintain a consistent vein of good form, and Sunday’s game against the Dockers in Perth will shape whether the Bombers can stay in touch with the top four, or fall closer to those sides in a battle for eighth spot.
Twitter: @michaelfilosi
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