The 2011 AFL season is at its halfway point, but instead of analysing what has happened so far, let’s cast our eye on the future. Five years into the future in fact, including this year, to 2015.

AFL is clearly cyclical, clubs rise and fall over the years. The inclusion of each team’s final ladder result over five year periods is testament to the fact that half a decade is a long time.

By 2015, we will see a battle of the Coasts, spiced up by some resurgent Victorian powerhouses. Players will come and go, stars will rise and teams will crumble.

Here are my predictions for how the AFL landscape might feel, club by club.

(Statistics note – No of top eight finishes – premierships – 1995 result – 2000 result – 2005 result – 2010 result)

Adelaide: 10 – 2 – 11th – 11th – 1st – 11th
Adelaide has proven to be a reasonably successful club since its inception, but has been starved over the past decade of any real triumphs. A minor premiership in 2005 amounted to nothing and since then capitulation in the finals have cruelled their seasons. Expect a list clear-out and a slow build until the Crows become contenders in 2015.

Key predictions: Still unable to get the Crows playing to potential, the club will end Neil Craig’s tenure and successfully integrate club legend Mark Ricciuto into head coaching. Prolonged issues over footy being played on Adelaide Oval, which is scheduled to begin in 2014.

Brisbane: 10 – 3 – 8th – 6th – 11th – 13th
The Lions had a very special run – a once in a generation golden streak when they won three grand finals in the early 2000s. There is nothing to suggest that will happen again soon. The likes of Rockliff, Redden, Polkinghorne will need to turn themselves into a “fab four” of sorts under the leadership of Daniel Rich. The squad will be good and matches at the Gabba will once again become a tough ground for away teams to win on, but the Lions won’t have the talented roster to make any impact in September. Jonathon Brown will be retired but Mitch Clark will be peaking.

Key predictions: Michael Voss unable to achieve any mid-term success with the club and won’t have his contract renewed beyond 2013. Lions to play the poor cousin role to a surging Suns outfit, but get some revenge by signing some of their young guns when Brown retires and releases a whack of cash in the salary cap.

Carlton: 7 – 1 – 1st (P) – 2nd – 16th – 8th
After grabbing a flag in 1995, the Blues have done very little since. After years in the darkness that will soon change. The Blues will play deep into September in 2012/13 and be consistent top four contenders over the period. Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs will be 200 game players, and with Matthew Kreuzer a dominant ruckman, they will provide the perfect midfield platform to lift Carlton to new heights.

Key predictions: Will be on the hunt for a full forward and will make aggressive moves to sign Lance Franklin at the end of 2013, who’ll be keen for a change of scenery. Brett Ratten to ride out all storms and stay on as an experienced and successful coach.

Collingwood: 7 – 1 -10th – 15th – 15th – 1st
Collingwood with the youthful squad it has should become the next Geelong, a side with prolonged success over half a decade. The next few years should be fruitful, but by 2015 there will be immense pressure on Nathan Buckley to turn around a side on the slide; a milder version of what Michael Voss is experiencing now. Mick Malthouse will be gone, and with him, the club’s best recruiting and fitness staff. But, there will be plenty of cash in the clubs vault and their foray into new technology will continue to reap terrific results – forcing the AFL to put a cap on their spending.

Key predictions: Scott Pendlebury to be skipper, with Nick Maxwell succumbing to a premature retirement through mixed seasons spoiled by injury. Steele Sidebottom in the elite midfield ranks. Eddie McGuire will have turned to politics and facing scrutiny over a conflict of interest with running the Magpies.

Essendon: 10 – 1 – 4th – 1st – 13th – 14th
The Bombers are well and truly due for some big results and, in the next couple of years, their premiership window will begin to open. Expect Essendon to have results that mirror Hawthorn’s rise in 2008, perhaps a premature flag, which will present challenges for James Hird as he tries to keep the Bombers up in the air.

Key predictions: The 100th anniversary Anzac Day match will be the biggest ever – held in Turkey between two strong sides. Expect at least one premiership trophy in the cabinet and a Brownlow for Jobe Watson.

Fremantle: 3 – 0 – 13th – 12th – 10th – 6th
No Pavlich and Sandilands in 2015 will expose Fremantle. Though their squad will be considerably more mature by then, the loss of those two will leave major gaps and be the difference between real success and mediocrity. Expect Fremantle to be major players in trade weeks around 2013-14 as they attempt to top up on key position players. Johnathon Griffin could become a star in the ruck.

Key predictions: 20 years into their life in the AFL, still no premiership for Freo. Will investigate setting up a permanent training base in Melbourne to help prepare for away games. Will stick with their awful theme song, we may not hear it too often.

Geelong: 10 – 2 – 2nd – 5th – 6th – 2nd
The Cats have been so good for so long – history shows this is unstainable and the run at Kardinia Park will end. A lot of the squad will age around the same time and once they get past their prime, the Cats will slip. Hard bodies mean they’ll stay tough to beat at home, but will lose the run to stick with the top sides by 2015.

Key predictions: Mass exodus from Geelong as the glory days end. It will be a stubborn fall though, and Chris Scott will have the tactical nous to keep the Cats from the doldrums.

Gold Coast: NA
Expect the talk in 2015 to be why the Suns haven’t won a premiership yet. There are such high expectations on this side to be a booming squad of champions in the coming years. It just won’t happen.

Certainly, they will become a side to be reckoned with by 2013 and be pushing for top four finishes. But the squad will fracture, hampered by players demanding top salaries as they mature and the desire on their behalf to move back to Victoria and indulge in a lifestyle that revolves around football and family. The AFL’s cash drip feed will continue to keep the Suns financially viable, but by 2015 there will be a solid supporter base that matches that of the Lions.

Key predictions: Speculation Gary Ablett wants to end his career back at Geelong. Karmichael Hunt will stick it out in AFL and, despite hurdles, will be nearly a 100 game player.

GWS: NA
Expectations will be high for the Giants following the reasonable progress made by the Suns in 2011. GWS recruiting won’t be as strong as the Suns, and a less attractive move to Sydney for established players will see the Giants struggle for three years. They will make the finals for first time in 2015 with Tom Scully as skipper and Dylan Shiel a leader in the side’s core. Premiership still a way off as the side lingers in the shadow of a more successful Swans outfit.

Key predictions: Kevin Sheedy won’t last as head coach – forced out by a more contemporary approach on offer from Stephen Silvagni, or Mark Williams. Israel Folau grows impatient with the game despite surprising critics early.

The Suns emerge as potential suitors as Folau eyes a move back to Queensland, they can’t afford him and instead there will be an amicable switch back to the NRL.

Hawthorn: 6 – 1 – 15th – 8th – 14th – 7th
By 2015 the Hawks will be back in the pack, the first year they don’t make the finals from now until then. Always looking dangerous, inconsistency ruins a chance at a 2008 encore. Buddy Franklin gets frustrated with his own up and down performance, and Jarryd Roughead leaves the Hawks at the end of 2014 to become a key defender elsewhere.

Key predictions: Lose pace and confidence after a few seasons of threatening football. A natural cyclical movement for Hawthorn, they’ll be back soon enough.

Melbourne: 6 – 0 – 9th – 3rd (RU) – 7th – 12th
The Demons are the club in vogue right now – everyone’s prediction to be a power team in the coming years. With a talented roster this should be the case, but a mixture of poor management and under delivery means the Demons will be a fringe top four side at best. By 2015 Tom Scully will have been gone for years and Jack Grimes and Jack Trengove will be trying to hold things together, frustrating fans starved for glory. They will be on the verge though, and some confidence will turn things around quickly.

Key predictions: Club board loses patience with Dean Bailey and poaches Mark Thompson, keen for anther stint as head coach, from Essendon. By 2015 there’s a realisation that Jack Watts is the Josh Fraser equivalent – solid but never living up to the hype of being number one draft pick.

North Melbourne: 10 – 2 – 6th – 4th – 5th – 9th
The Shinboner spirit has carried the Kangaroos through a number of lean seasons, yet over the past 15 years they have been one of the most consistently performing sides. But three trends will stop them from becoming a force again: an inability to keep up with cashed up clubs, false forays into Queensland and Canberra and the fact they have never bottomed out to collect young talent in the draft.

By 2015, the gap will widen, North will fall down the ladder, providing the opportunity to recruit, and more crucially, relocate.

Key predictions: North Melbourne will end as we know it, to become the Tasmania Kangaroos induced by unrefusable financial assistance from the AFL. Andrew Swallow is a Brownlow medal winner.

Port Adelaide: 7 – 1 – NA – 14th – 8th – 10th
Port is in a rut right now, suffering from reports of a selfish playing group lacking potential, and a small supporter base. The mess at Port will cause the AFL to controversially extend its charity further to propping up the club. . External pressures will bring about a complete gutting of the Port’s structures and in 2015 the beginnings of a new dawn

Key predictions: Travis Boak will leave South Australia – taking up a lucrative offer from Richmond or Essendon in what may resemble the closest thing to Chris Judd’s move to Carlton. Matthew Primus to have left under bad circumstances, replaced by Scott Burns, looking for opportunities out of WA.

Richmond: 2 – 0 – 3rd – 9th – 12th – 15th
Who’d be a Richmond supporter? The club is battling, despite a solid supporter base, but a lack of on-field success is hampering the Tigers’ ability to progress. Two top eight finishes in 16 seasons is abysmal, and going back to the mid 80s doesn’t make for much better reading. In fact the Tigers the last time prior to 1995 was when they lost the Grand Final in 1982! That indicates about 30 years of poor results.

The current group of Tigers look to be improving and should play finals over the next couple of years. The likes of Dustin Martin and Brett Deledio should be dominant players over the next few seasons. But by 2015 don’t count on any more silverware in the dusty Richmond trophy room. The Tigers have rarely shown the ability to turn early draft picks into elite players; this debilitating culture must end for them to rise anytime soon.

Key predictions: Add two more finals appearances over the five years but at the lower end of the eight. Mick Malthouse to be into his third year as senior coach, with grand ambitions for a maturing but promising group.

St Kilda: 8 – 0 – 14th – 16th – 4th – 3rd
By 2015 some of the Saints’ staunchest supporters will be at their wit’s end. St Kilda will be coming up to 50 years without a premiership, and the team won’t have the class to turn things around. The side’s very best now will be on the wrong side of 30, and talk around the club will tragically still be about that bounce that denied Stephen Milne the winning goal in 2010.

Key predictions: The Saints will start instilling the strictest and most disciplined regimes on their players, causing commentators of the game to debate seriously footy/life balance. But hurting from past mistakes, the board will persist, crafting a new squad aiming for a top four slot in 2017.

Sydney: 12 – 1 – 12th – 10th – 3rd – 5th
The Swans have made the most finals appearances over the last 16 seasons, missing action in September only four times. That is a remarkable effort, and the reason they hold onto typically fickle NSW fans. Rather than be squeezed by GWS, greater interest in AFL in the state will embolden the Swans and a prolonged culture of success will continue under Kieran Jack and Daniel Hanneberry

Key predictions: Sydney will finally dump the plan to play matches at ANZ Stadium, instead revamping the SCG as a red and white fortress. The introduction of the Giants will help the Swans with a radical new recruitment policy aggressively targeting rugby league players.

West Coast: 11 – 1 – 5th – 13th – 2nd – 16th
The Eagles are starting to build – from the brink of absolute despair in 2010, they’ve turned things around with strong, creative young players. Over two decades, West Coast has never been down for long – and like Collingwood enjoy the benefits of a huge supporter base and the associated financial benefits that come with it. Luke Shuey will be the next Ben Cousins and when the Eagle start dominating, Matt Priddis will finally be recognised as one of the game’s very best.

Key predictions: Pencil West Coast in for the 2015 flag. The next era of football defined by a Coast vs Coast rivalry. Nic Natanui’s dominant profile in the game inspires the Eagles to try and develop more players from the Pacific, with varying results.

Western Bulldogs: 9 – 0 – 7th – 7th – 9th – 4th
The Bulldogs totally missed their chance at grand final glory and will pay the price for putting a failed results-driven strategy ahead of a long term plan. Expect them to be abysmal for at least three years, but by the end of 2015 be ready to start rebuilding into a competitive side once more. Rodney Eade will be long gone and Tom Liberatore and Mitch Wallis will form the Dogs’ core.

Key predictions: A lack of vision now to hurt the Bulldogs for years. Internal fractures start to disrupt the football division, similar to the situation now at North Melbourne.

2015 Ladder
1. West Coast 2. Essendon 3. Gold Coast 4. Carlton 5. Sydney 6. Adelaide 7. Collingwood 8. GWS 9. Melbourne 10. Brisbane 11. Richmond 12. Geelong 13. Hawthorn 14. Fremantle 15. St Kilda 16. Port Adelaide 17. North Melbourne 18. Western Bulldogs