Was the Australian conference weakest?

With the resolution of the pool stages of the Super Rugby season for 2011, I thought it an apt moment to review one of the contentious issues this year.

I don’t have an entire lifetime to analyse refereeing, judiciaries, KPIs or playpower. So, I went for the next in line.

That’s the one that’s raised a fair amount of comment and ire around the relative weaknesses and intensity of each conference.

Specifically that the Australian conference is the weakest and that the derby matches have provided an unfair advantage to its finals aspirants. So in schoolboy fashion I decided to do some statistical analysis.

Analysis – Brief

The idea is to get figures around the cannibalising of points from “weaker’ teams in each conference by the leading teams within the same conference and those from other conferences.

Key figures in the weighting will therefore be point difference (PD) and points from matchups between the leaders and numbers across conferences.

The larger the PD the more lopsided the victories. Points gained then gives us an indication of ranking gains independent of landslide victories.

First step: Identify the leading teams. Fortunately due to each conference supplying two teams not only is it truly representative but also balanced from a statistical point of view:

Leaders:

Blues – New Zealand
Sharks – South Africa
Crusaders – New Zealand
Reds – Australia
Stormers – South Africa
Tahs – Australia

The rest then make up the numbers.

Numbers:

Brumbies – Australia
Bulls – South Africa
Cheetahs – South Africa
Chiefs – New Zealand
Force- Australia
Highlanders – New Zealand
Hurricanes – New Zealand
Lions – South Africa
Rebels – Australia

From here on the math is pretty simple:

1. Sum the for and against for each “numbers” team the leader team has played in each conference to derive an overall PD against the weaker teams split out by conf.

2. Sum the points for the above match to put table ranking into the equation

Contender Analysis by Conference:

Key Analysis Notes:
• The Australian conference has resulted in the largest mismatches with the average PD between the leadings teams across all conferences and weaker teams in this conference at 18.89, followed by New Zealand 8.33 and South Africa 6.78 respectfully.

• The Australian conference has also provide the most points to the leaders from each conference with 95 at an average of 4.05 per game, followed by SA 75 at 3.41 and New Zealand 67 at 3.35

• The Reds and Blues are the only teams with higher average PDs against other conferences. SA and New Zealand respectfully.

• The PD flat track bullies in order are Saders, Stormers, Waratahs, Blues, Reds and Sharks.

• The bonus point (BP) flat track bullies per average game are Blues, Waratahs, Reds/Stormers, Sharks and Crusaders. Interesting shift here showing that teams who may run up big scores aren’t getting the maximum and some that get the maximum aren’t that far ahead of their opponents.

• Blues, Crusaders and Waratahs have struggled most against weaker SA sides which is backed up the PD ratio

• Reds, Sharks and Stormers have struggled most against the weaker New Zealand sides.

• Through the imbalance of conference scheduling system the Blues and Saders have played one fewer games against weaker teams than the other contenders.

• The teams most to benefit from playing weaker conference teams Waratahs, Reds/Stormers, Sharks, Blues and Crusaders. I suspect the latter two miss out a little due to playing one game less.

• Intra conference BP average Australia: Waratahs 4.5, Reds 3.67.
• Intra conference BP average New Zealand: Blues 3.67, Crusaders 3.33
• Intra conference BP average South Africa: Stormers 3.67, Sharks 3.17
• Total PD for each conference: Australia -229, New Zealand 100, South Africa 129

Final word:
In summation its pretty clear that the contenders in each conference have severely plundered table points from the Australian conference and in that sense it has been the weakest for opposition with the most lopsided results.

The question is, has this advantaged the Waratahs and Reds? Looking at the points gained and you would say yes.

The median for the Australian contenders is 24.5 points gained versus their counterparts in New Zealand 21 and South Africa 20.5 but its not that clear cut.

The biggest winner from the derby system is not the table leading Reds who accumulated an overall median 22 but the Waratahs who flambéed their weaker opponents for a massive 27 point haul.

It’s the Reds ability to gain points inter conference specifically against SA opponents that has been their strong point.

So with the rest of the teams bar the Sharks (lowest ranked finalist) and ‘Saders (drawn game) well in the median it would show that the matches may be closer in the other conferences but the leaders are gaining equal amounts of points.