“Uncertainty and erratic moves will be the norm rather than the exception,” Saxo Bank reported last week in its economic outlook. The Danish bank also happens to be the naming sponsor of the professional cycling team lead by Alberto Contador in the 2011 Tour de France.
Unfortunately, for Alberto, these words might prove prophetic in regards to the narrative which will be played out on the roads of France over the next three weeks.
The controversial, defending champion and red hot favourite could not have envisaged a worse possible start to this year’s tour.
His main rivals Andy Schleck & Cadel Evans could not have envisaged a better one (short of Alberto falling off and breaking a collarbone).
On day one, Contador was caught in a massive pile up 9kms from the finish. Cadel & Andy Schleck avoided the carnage which took out 60% of the peloton and gained an unexpected 70+ seconds time gap on Alberto.
Even more encouraging was Cadel’s form in finishing the first stage so strongly. He chased home the virtually unbeatable one day specialist, Phillipe Gilbert, to finish a clear second.
Contador’s horror start to the tour continued on day two in the 23km team trial. Evans’ team BMC Racing & Schleck’s team Leopard Trek both performed brilliantly and left the reigning champion a further 24 seconds behind.
A bunch sprint in last night’s stage 3 in the flat stage from Olonne sur Mer to Redon in Brittany did not see further movement in the overall standings.
In a typically frenetic finish, American, Tyler Farrar celebrated Independence Day by winning his first Tour stage, upstaging sprint king Mark Cavendish who finished fifth.
Which brings us to tonight’s Stage 4 from Lorient to Mûr-de-Bretagne. This will prove to be one of the most intriguing of the early stages.
The stage will take in some rolling hills and a gut busting, steep and straight two kilometre climb to the finish.
This means the peloton will disintegrate in the charge up the hill leaving the sprinters out of contention.
Instead, there will be a sustained burst to the finish where strong riders like one day racers, Gilbert & Voeckler and the time triallers will fight it out.
There will be small time gaps at the end of this stage.
Evans is only one second behind the yellow jersey holder, Thor Hushovd.
If he can repeat the finish to the first stage Evans will take over the yellow jersey. Whether he and his team want him in yellow so early in the tour is an altogether different matter.
Stage 4 Results
POS No. Name Team Time Gap
1 054 Tyler FARRAR GRM 04:40:21
2 201 Romain FEILLU VCD 04:40:21
3 088 Jose Joaquin ROJAS MOV 04:40:21
4 105 Sébastien HINAULT ALM 04:40:21
5 171 Mark CAVENDISH THR 04:40:21
6 051 Thor HUSHOVD GRM 04:40:21
7 053 Julian DEAN GRM 04:40:21
8 202 Borut BOZIC VCD 04:40:21
9 033 André GREIPEL OLO 04:40:21
10 214 Jimmy ENGOULVENT SAU 04:40:21
Overall Standings
POS No. Name Team Time Gap
1 051 Thor HUSHOVD GRM 09:46:46 00:00:00
2 056 David MILLAR GRM 09:46:46 00:00:00
3 141 Cadel EVANS BMC 09:46:47 00:00:01
4 117 Geraint THOMAS SKY 09:46:50 00:00:04
5 014 Linus GERDEMANN LEO 09:46:50 00:00:04
6 114 Edvald Boasson HAGEN SKY 09:46:50 00:00:04
7 018 Frank SCHLECK LEO 09:46:50 00:00:04
8 011 Andy SCHLECK LEO 09:46:50 00:00:04
9 013 Jakob FUGLSANG LEO 09:46:50 00:00:04
10 111 Bradley WIGGINS SKY 09:46:50 00:00:04
69 001 Alberto CONTADOR SBS 09:48:28 00:01:42
Green Sprint Jersey Standings
POS No. Name Team Points
1 088 Jose Joaquin ROJAS MOV 65
2 054 Tyler FARRAR GRM 58
3 032 Philippe GILBERT OLO 52
4 051 Thor HUSHOVD GRM 50
5 201 Romain FEILLU VCD 38
6 141 Cadel EVANS BMC 35
7 193 Denis GALIMZYANOV KAT 29
8 202 Borut BOZIC VCD 28
9 171 Mark CAVENDISH THR 27
10 033 André GREIPEL OLO 26
Overall Standing – Australians
POS No. Name Team Gap Time
3 141 Cadel EVANS BMC 00:00:00 09:46:47
18 174 Matthew Harley GOSS THR 00:00:04 09:46:51
73 016 Stuart O’GRADY LEO 00:01:52 09:48:39
82 005 Richie PORTE SBS 00:02:16 09:49:03
97 177 Mark RENSHAW THR 00:02:34 09:49:21
108 113 Simon GERRANS SKY 00:02:52 09:49:39
nordozzz
Roar Guru
that's it in one ... Cadel's 'style' is just a little less spectacular than the rest, he might not have the bite of others in the hills but he does hang in there pretty well. Have seen him respond and claw back ground plenty of times.
Thanks for your thoughts, jameswm. Early indications are really positive for Cadel. He looked great chasing Gilbert on day one. The stage with the 2 HC climbs is the 1st big mountain stage on Bastille day, Thursday July 14 As you said it will be the HC climbs that will make or break him.
jameswm
Guest
What was noticeable in the stage 2 TTT was how the two Schlecks were struggling to stay on their team's pace, whereas Cadel was the one driving his team, the way Cancellara did for his team. So it looks like Cadel's TT form is excellent. His finish in day one was also strong. He left other riders in his wake. So his form in the punchy shorter hills is strong. What we don't know is what his form will be like in the mountains - like the two HC climbs that finish one stage (next tues I think). That as always will determine it, unless it's close coming to the final time trial. I heard a novice news reporter write off Contador this morning because he's 69th. 1:40 is nothing in the Alps. If Cadel can really limit or negate his losses in the 3 or so massive mountain stages, he can really win this. He could easily take a full minute off Schleck in the final TT, and Contador needs to do some real business on Cadel in the Alps. Hopefully Contador and Schleck will be so busy worrying about each other they'll forget about Cadel. I don't know if it's a couple of years too late though. He's at least got a better team around him.
Don't know about that Republican, Cadel can certainly climb. Two 2nd place finishes are testament to his climbing ability. What he does not have are the explosive bursts of Contador. Richie Porte can also climb. It will be interesting to see how much he helps Contador in the mountain stages.
thanks for the comment andras, the concern for Alberto is whether the Giro took too much out of him. we'll find out soon.
Republican
Guest
Cadel as with all Aussie riders will drop off the pace once the the topography starts to become hilly.
Yes, nordozz tonight's finish will be a cracker. Gilbert is a beast of a rider and I expect him to be too tough again tonight. But watching the batte between Cadel, Alberto and Andy flogging themselves up this little hill will be something to savour.
Yes Matt, the bookies can't make up their mind. Schleck & Contador are now equal favourites. If the Schleck's margin remained at 100 seconds going into the final time trial, then I'd make him favourite as well.
andras valko
Guest
sorry guys ,time to wake up.remember GIRO 2011 you all seen it it is coming again,this guy is going to beat you so bad hi is 60kg 7liters lung capacity no chance for you
Jimbo
Guest
I would say he wouldn't really want to be in it this early in the tour. It is just a distraction.
nordozzz
Roar Guru
love these types of finishes like tonight's stage, Gilbert has been eating these up so far this year
Matt F
Guest
it's possible he might be though as you said at the end of the article, it really dosen't matter if he's in it in the next few days, as long as he's in it at the end. I'd have Andy Schleck as the favourite for now though