Reds need to overcome Crusaders' aura in key match ups

The Reds will need to overcome the Crusaders aura to win the 2011 Super Rugby Championship. On an initial head to head comparison of each team’s spine, it was immediately clear that the Crusaders dominated all but the half back faceoff.

The Crusaders bark is much scarier than their bite. Their bark, their aura, their reputation, is not fully supported by the statistics recorded during the last game or across the overall season.

The Reds won the season proper, defeated the Crusaders during that season and have played just as effective rugby as the Crusaders in the finals. The Reds missed 14.4% of their tackles while the Crusaders missed 15.2%.

1. Faingaa v Flynn:

On appearances, Flynn is the clear winner. Faingaa can reduce the gap between himself and Flynn if he is able to throw straight.

How much of this assessment is due to the Crusaders “aura” and how much is supported by the statistics?

A review of last week’s player statistics, according to Fox Sports Fantasy, shows that the two performances are very closely matched. Flynn made 9 tackles and missed 5, made 2 runs and 11 lineout wins.

Faingaa made 8 tackles and missed 2, made 5 runs and 6 lineout wins and one not straight.

Lineout wins are often a reflection of the opposition’s tactics and field position.

Over the whole season, Flynn has played 1159 minutes to Faingaa’s 956 minutes (82%). They have made 73 and 72 runs each, 94 to 142 tackles, missed 15 and 14 tackles each, won 114 to 126 lineouts and had 7 to 2 not straights over the season.

Flynn and his scrum time friends have won 8 tightheads to 3 and lost 2 tightheads to 4.

Minute for minute, Faingaa is clearly better performed.

Opinion: Flynn on appearances and Faingaa on statistics.

2. Robinson v McCaw:

McCaw has had a very limited preparation for this game. Last week McCaw played 80 minutes to Robinson’s 66, made 5 runs to 3, made 16 tackles to 14, missed 2 tackles to 1, made 1 pilfers/turnovers to 2and gave away 1 penalty to 1 by Robinson.

Over the season, McCaw has played 410 minutes (45%)to Robinson’s 916, made 39 runs to 74, 84 tackles to 133, missed 8 tackles to 21, made 5 pilfers to 8, forced 0 turnovers to 5 and conceded 10 penalties to 11.

McCaw excels in tackles per game, while Robinson is clearly ahead at turnovers forced and penalties conceded.

Opinion: McCaw on appearances and Robinson on statistics.

3. Samo v Read:

Read has played 1137 minutes to Samo’s 622 (54%), made 134 runs to Samo’s 63, to 113 tackles Samo’s 94 tackles, missed 14 tackles to 11 and made 23 lineout takes to Samo’s 9.

Opinion: Read on appearances and equal on statistics.

4. Genia v Ellis/Fotuali’i:

Fotuali’i played for 63 minutes to Genia’s 76, made 2 runs to Genia’s 3, 1 tackle bust to 0, 4 tackles to 7, 0 offloads 1, 0 linebreak created to 1, and 0 errors to 4 from Genia.

Genia dominates both Ellis and Fotuali’i in all major statistics.

Game time: (Ellis/ Fotuali’i, Genia): 731(54%)/336 (25%)/1347;

Runs: 36/15/72

Line breaks: 4/1/9

Line breaks created: 4/2/12

Tackles: 38/33/77

Tackles missed: 23/7/18

Penalties: 6/1/4

Opinion: Genia on appearances and Genia on statistics.

Try assists: 3/2/6

5. Cooper v Carter:

Carter has played 875 minutes (64%) to Cooper’s 1348 minutes, made 64 runs to Cooper’s 102, made 90 tackles to Cooper’s 52, missed 17 to 26, made 4 linebreaks to 15, created 10 linebreaks to 27, and one try assist to 10 from Cooper, 24 conversions to 30, 6 conversions missed to 14, 40 penalties to 41, 17 penalties missed to 20 making an overall kicking success rate percentage of 73% to 67% for Cooper.

Overwhelmingly, Cooper has greater attacking results, but is less effective in both the tackle and goalkicking. While tries are worth more than goal kicks, goal kickers often win tight games.

Opinion: Carter on appearances and equal on statistics.

6. Lance V Marshall:

This statistical comparison is flawed as lace has only played 158 minutes, (two games) in 2011 to Marshall’s 772 minutes.

Last weekend, Marshall played 80 minutes to Lance’s 80, made 6 runs to 5, made 4 tackles busts to 2, made 0 linebreaks to 2, made 1 tackle to 11, missed 0 tackles to 5, and made 2 errors to 1. Crucially, Marshall conceded three penalties to 0.

Opinion: Marshall on appearances and Marshall on statistics.

Much has been made of the earthquake victims that they are representing and the additional travel done throughout the season.

However, the Reds also represent a community ravaged by nature in the recent past. The Reds were out there in their training kit helping clean up after the floods.

It is just not “front of mind” for rugby followers, probably because it was before the season commenced and it didn’t affect one of the RWC’s principal venues.

While the Crusaders appear to be a stronger team, man to man than the rising Reds team can match them. This does not prescribe a win by either team. It comes down to physical and mental preparation and the desire, self belief and motivation.

Two 12 hour international flights in seven days must affect the Crusaders performance in the 4th quarter. The heart may be willing but the flesh will be weak.