With just two months left until the finals commence, the race for a top eight berth is gaining momentum. Two familiar faces are gaining ground on the pack, making a late push for September showdowns.
St. Kilda and the Western Bulldogs have been Preliminary finalists in the past three seasons, but this year they have struggled.
A string of victories, after early season trouble, has both clubs primed for a good old fashioned sprint to the finish.
The Bulldogs currently sit ninth, just half a game out of the eight.
Fresh from their best win of the year, the Dogs have stringed four consecutive victories together.
The turnaround in form has come on the back of improvement in two key statistical areas.
In modern football inside 50 tackles are gold. The Collingwood blueprint of relentless forward pressure has become essential for most teams. It comes as no surprise that the Bulldogs lacked in this area over the first eleven games of 2011.
Discounting their two big wins over battling Queensland teams Brisbane and Gold Coast, the Dogs have averaged just 5.77 tackles inside 50 per game, ranked 16th in the competition.
Over the last month they have been able to turn this around. Since round 12, the Dogs have averaged 8.75 tackles inside 50, ranking them 7th overall.
The other statistical improvement comes in the form of uncontested possessions. Again disregarding results against the Lions and Suns, across the first 11 rounds the Bulldogs were ranked 14th for uncontested possessions per game with 212.33.
In the last month they have averaged 229.5 per game, ranking 9th overall. This improvement indicates the Dogs are working harder for each other, creating space for teammates to run into.
With the leg speed they possess, too many uncontested possessions means trouble, especially in the hands of smooth movers Ryan Griffin, Robert Murphy and Shaun Higgins.
Arguably the biggest factor to the Bulldogs resurgence has been the form of their Brownlow medallist Adam Cooney.
Cooney has battled a knee injury for most of the year but looks to have finally overcome it and recaptured his stunning Brownlow winning form of 2008. Cooney’s knee has severely hampered his performances this year, averaging just 73.15 champion data points per match.
However, over the last three weeks Cooney has burst back into form, averaging 112.33.
If results go as expected this week, (Swans defeat Fremantle and Dogs defeat North Melbourne) the Bulldogs will be back inside the eight for the first time since round three.
Despite a tough draw including just one game against a team outside the eight, the Bulldogs should be able to consolidate a finals position. With the form they showed on the weekend, they are certainly capable of mixing it with the best.
The other team to fall from grace has been St. Kilda.
Three Grand Finals in two years will take its toll on players both physically and mentally. “Saints football” had scaled to the summit of Everest but never been able to conquer the peak.
Despite this, most predicted the Saints would still finish in the eight and be a threat come September.
This has been far from the case in season 2011. The Saints, cruelled by injury to their spiritual leader Lenny Hayes, have not been inside the top eight all year.
They remain in touching distance – currently 11th – but are yet to recapture their form of 2009-10.
Following consecutive wins over North Melbourne and Port Adelaide perhaps the Saints have finally turned the corner.
Whilst neither of these teams has set the world on fire to date, four points is four points and the Saints will take anything they can get. Like the Bulldogs, the Saints form turnaround can be attributed to one man, Nick Riewoldt.
Riewoldt has struggled in front of goal this year, converting a mere 35.56 percent of shots. In some instances his set shot kicking has been appalling, some shots failing to make the distance from just 30-40 metres.
However, it all seemed to click for St. Nick midway through the clash with North Melbourne, striking the ball beautifully to finish with three goals to his name. Riewoldt then returned four goals against Port Adelaide. This seven goal tally over the past two weeks exceeds his total for the preceding five weeks.
The real acid test comes this week when they take on the resurgent Eagles.
If they can manage to steal the points, they are well and truly back. If not, the task remains hard but not impossible.
With the top five close to settled amongst Carlton, Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn and West Coast, three places remain in the finals calculations.
The Saints and the Bulldogs can grab two of these spots. You know on their day they can match it with the best, proven in last year’s drawn Grand Final.
The prospect of facing the Saints or Dogs in a finals clash would be fraught with danger, but as a neutral spectator the potential clashes are mouth-watering.
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