Anticipated by all, the NAB AFL Rising Star award is the ultimate (realistic) individual accolade for budding AFL players.
In a year the award was expected to be dominated by Gold Coast youngsters, two bolters have emerged after 20 rounds in what is the closest competition since 2007.
First year revelation Dyson Heppell and Eagle Luke Shuey have broken away from the pack of youngsters with consistent performances throughout the season. Heppell has played every game in his first year while Shuey has played every game also, although in his third year.
Having raised debate over the eligibility criteria, Shuey has only played six games more than Heppell who is two years his junior.
Despite two additional years in the system, a player qualifies for the award so long as he has played less than ten games and is under 21 at the beginning of the calendar year.
Instilled favourite with Sportsbet, Heppell ($1.50) marginally leads Shuey ($2.50) with the next closest contender David Swallow at $11, who started the year as favourite.
Heppell has proven impressive to many by the sheer fact that this is his first year compared to Shuey’s third. Both proven as critical cogs in their teams success, we cannot dismiss Shuey who plays as an inside midfielder compared to Heppell across half back. This is reflected in their stats.
Averaging 21.4 possessions a game, Heppell slightly pips Shuey’s 20.1, however of those, Shuey averages 9.6 contested possessions against Heppell’s 6.
Gaining a lot more of the ball himself sees Shuey third in contested possessions at West Coast only behind Matt Priddis and Dean Cox.
With recent recruiting emphasis shifting from athletic ability to skill execution, disposal efficiency must also be taken into account.
Due to their different roles, we cannot make a direct comparison since Heppell generally has more time to dispose of the ball.
Let’s compare them to their All-Australian counterparts.
As halfback flankers, Brendan Goddard disposes of the ball at 78.06% and Corey Enright 77.67%. Dyson Heppell disposes at 73.15%.
As inside midfielders, Chris Judd disposes at 66.41% and Gary Ablett 68.74%. Luke Shuey eclipses each of them with 71.25%.
From these comparisons to their All-Australian counterparts, Shuey has proven a more efficient player throughout the season for the role he plays within his team.
Although only $1 separates the two in betting, there is no guarantee that the voting committee will consider the age difference between the two.
With a string of flankers gathering uncontested possessions across the league, few young players have been able to influence clearances in the same manner as Shuey.
It may be difficult to agree on who is a better player but the Rising Star award has taught us, when the competition is this close; both are expected to have highly successful careers.
In 2007, Joel Selwood and Scott Pendlebury were inseparable by many and are now both in the top echelon of players in the league.
With the Brownlow medal allegedly decided already, spotlights will be fixed on Dyson Heppell and Luke Shuey in the coming weeks as we look to crown the 2011 NAB AFL Rising Star.
DILLIGAF
Guest
Harryg, "i" disagree with your comments like most on here stating Shuey is a better player. How can you say heppell has done more for Essendon than Shuey west Coast. We have plenty of backmen that get lots of cheap touches to gather statistics. Im sure Ive seen him take the kick ins which in most games would be 10-15 touches in itself with plenty of time to "create" Ahhh Id rather a player who has the ability to scorch teams with bagfulls of goals rather than a rebounder defender who has one task.Shuey gets more tackles, gets more clearances, gets more hard ball gets and beyond all that kicks goals all with a better accuracy on the field than Heppel. Excuse me for my ignorance but how exactly is he "not" the favourite? And to the people not in the know, Shuey was injured for his first 2 seasons so there is no advantage there but this is the reason for broadening the rules, so that others cannot gain the "unfair" advantage.
Qwonkers
Guest
Don't forget Hird, won it playing centre half forward in 96. Last non-midfielder winner (though went on to dominate the midfield in the second half of his career, after the stress fractures).
Harryg
Guest
I disagree. heppell has done more for the bombers this year then shuey has done for the eagles. Heppell will most likely win the best and fairest for essendon. Not to mention that hes more consistent. Heppel is so creative as the bombers always manage to score when he gets the ball ahead of half back.
Right on the money Bayman! A view which really shows the difference between positions is the price of players in Dream Team competitions. Midfielders are by far the most costly. Way back when Moses and I played the "on ballers" were the ones who racked up the points. This was probably because there was only one umpire and he also had to stay up with the ball. It would be interesting to hear reasons or theories why midfielders are now the all conquering heros.
Bayman
Guest
AlfredC, We shouldn't be surprised - midfielders win everything these days. It would be interesting to chat to some old umpires, and some modern umps, to see if they can explain why this is now so. The Brownlow was won by ruckmen in 1972 (Thompson), 1975 (Dempsey), 1976 (Moss), 1977 (Teasdale), 1979 (Moore), 1981 (Round) and 1984 (Moore, again). A slight gap then again in 1991 (Stynes) and 1992 (Wynd). Since then, virtually nothing but mid-fielders. The game, clearly, has changed and so have the players. Probably Goodes is the nearest thing we have in recent times to a ruckman but he wasn't exclusively so in his medal years and he plays like a very big mid-fielder.
Alfred Chan
Expert
The handicapping issue will be an interesting one to watch over the off-season. This is the kind of thing the AFL would have a knee jerk reaction to. The reason for the age eligibility is to be fair on the taller players who's bodies do not mature until their second or third year in the system. Even though the AFL has given them this handicap, no big man has won it since Nick Rewoldt in 2002. It has been won by midfielders ever since. From the eight winners since then, only Sam Mitchell (second year), Jared Rivers (second year) and Daniel Hannebery (second year) have not won it in their first year. Shuey would be the second player to ever win it in his third year. The other being Nick Holland in 1995. I have no issues if they keep the eligibility criteria the same in the future.
Bayman your "handicapping" point is a valid one and was brought up on AFL 360. It hardly seems fair that a first year player need compete against a second or third year player but the AFL (in their infinite wisdom) have deemed that to be the case so, unless there is a rule change (unlikely), that's the way it is.
Bayman
Guest
I confess I've pretty well ignored the Rising Star award in previous years because it's just another "award" which this modern day deems important. People today just love awards - regardless of any relevancy. However, in this year's case, the question arises as to the handicapping. In other words, does the performance of Heppell get a loading based on "first year" compared to Shuey who has the benefit of a couple of pre-seasons to prepare the body. In my view, Shuey has had a better and more influential year but Heppell has done great things with (virtually) no preparation. Like some others here, I've been seriously impressed with the work of Geelong's Christensen and I could comfortably live with the idea that he wins it this year. Sure, he's had a season or two to prepare but he's been very good in a very good side. Some may argue it's easier to play in a great team but at any moment in time a player still has to win the ball then do something with it. Christensen certainly does that. I await with interest.
brendan
Guest
On the money Macca go Bundy.
Agreed! Shuey has been playing very well and, being a midfielder, has a much better chance of picking up points than a back flanker. However I'm not impartial and want Heppell to win because I am an Essendon supporter and also backed him at nice odds pre season. ;)
Alfred Chan
Expert
I agree with you there davelee. The reason I wrote the article was because I thought Shuey was a clear favorite but the odds disagreed when I checked them. Although I have seen a lot more West Coast games than Essendon, I've seen Heppell get a lot of cheap touches. Heppell also doesn't seem to influence games anywhere near as much as Shuey who is a genuine contested player. The ball disposal efficiency stat was the most alarming for me. When Shuey plays well, the Eagles win. The same cannot be said for Heppell. Alas, there is every chance Selwood pipped Pendlebury because he was a first year player while Pendlebury was a second year player. In 07, every voter game Selwood 5 and Pendlebury 4 except for one who did it the other way around. Unless Heppell can give one or two BOG efforts, I think Shuey will win it.
davelee
Guest
I think Luke Shuey should be the clear favourite. He's a vital part of WCE's midfield and they are a top four team. If WCE were from Melbourne people would've acknowledged this earlier. Heppell isnt as good as Shuey.
Macca
Guest
Don't rule out Alan Christensom from Geelong. He hasn't played as many games as Heppell and Shuey but he picks up a lot of contested possessions. He's overtaken Varcoe as a clearance player and is matching output with the likes of Bartell, Kelly and Corey.