Carlton v Hawthorn: Live AFL scores, blog

Tonight’s installment of Friday night football has thrown up arguably the most important game of the home and away season, with top-four sides Carlton and Hawthorn facing off for the first time in 2011. Join us from 7:30pm tonight for live AFL scores and blog for Blues v Hawks at Etihad Stadium.

When third and fourth on the AFL ladder meet in a match just outside of September it is always going to be a massive clash. It’s happening tonight, on the eve of finals, and the result is critically important.

The Hawks can shore up third position with a win, while a loss would relegate them to fourth and the likelihood of a first up finals clash with defending premiers Collingwood (as opposed to finishing third and playing Geelong).

Anything but a win fails to seal a top four position because finishing fifth is not yet out of the question for the out-of-contract Alistair Clarkson.

The Blues, on the other hand, head into tonight’s encounter knowing that with a bye next week, they are playing for the chance to finish in the top four.

If Carlton win, not only do they take their one and only big scalp of the season proper but they stay in the hunt for the double chance – the pressure sitting heavily on the shoulders of fifth-placed West Coast who can’t afford a slip up from here to the end.

But if the Blues lose, they are almost consigned to a fifth-placed finish and their chances of raising the flag for the first time since 1995 diminish drastically.

A strongly-held belief states only the top four sides compete for the premiership in the finals. The one and only non top four premier in the AFL was Adelaide in 1998 (however, due to the use of a different system that year, the Crows – coming from fifth place on the ladder – continued on after losing in the first week of the playoffs).

Even if tonight’s match was a dead rubber there would still be plenty of interest from a tactical perspective. Hawthorn and Carlton, along with the Eagles, are seemingly the biggest threats to a Collingwood v Geelong Grand Final.

Both the Hawks and the Blues play very different styles to the Pies and Cats and this could give them an edge in the finals.

Hawthorn has the capacity to deny the opposition the ball for long periods, using their elite kicking skills to retain the football when coming out defence.

On top of that, the Hawks have the luxury of being able to call on the heavy artillery of Lance Franklin and Cyril Rioli in the attacking 50.

In contrast, the Blues are lightning fast, offer an unpredictable forward line, a blue-chip midfield and penetrating run off half-back.

Carlton has rushed defender Michael Jamison back into the team after he missed a couple months of footy with a knee injury.

Due to the gravity of tonight’s result and the brilliance of the Hawthorn forward line, the All Australian-bound backman will probably be required to mind Lance Franklin, although coach Brett Ratten hinted that Jamison could be the sub.

Many people believe that the Hawks will have their work cut out containing a Carlton midfield that boasts the likes of Brownlow Medal candidates Chris Judd and Marc Murphy.

But of what I have seen of the Hawthorn midfield, led by Sam Mitchell, also (despite being ineligible) in Brownlow form, the Hawks will win enough of the clearances to keep the Blues honest.

After all, the Hawks have saluted the last seven times these two clubs have met. And it has not always been close.

Hawthorn will be taking plenty of confidence into the match. They disposed of a woeful Port Adelaide side by more than 150 points last week.

Playing without many experienced men for much of the season, the Hawks have been rejuvenated by a number of impressive youngsters working their way into the team. And Clarkson has shown faith in the Hawks’ kids by not making any chances for the crucial clash this evening.

The Blues are also in good form. In the first half last week against Fremantle in Perth, Carlton played incredibly well.

If it wasn’t for some bad kicking at goal, the game would have been done at quarter time. The Carlton camp will be a quietly confident one.

This shapes up as a great matchup: two young, improving, confident and impressive sides. As the race for September hots up, there will be plenty of answers to some big questions tonight.

I’m going to tip a Hawks win. I like Hawthorn’s record against the Blues. And while the Etihad venue should suit Carlton, the Blues have a modest (by their standards) 5-3 winning record at the ground this year. The losses were against Geelong, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs.

I think Hawthorn will get enough joy out of the midfield battle to cause the Carlton coaches’ box plenty of headaches. I’ll nominate a 14-point winning margin for the brown and gold.

Teams

Carlton
B: Jeremy Laidler, Michael Jamison, Christopher Yarran
HB: Bryce Gibbs, Lachlan Henderson, Nick Duigan
C: Heath Scotland, David Ellard, Kade Simpson
HF: Jeffrey Garlett, Bret Thornton, Dennis Armfield
F: Andrew Walker, Matthew Kreuzer, Eddie Betts
Foll: Robert Warnock, Chris Judd, Marc Murphy
I/C: Andrew Carrazzo, Aaron Joseph, Mitch Robinson, Marcus Davies
Emg: Setanta O’hAilpin, Jordan Russell, Zach Tuohy
In: Michael Jamison
Out: Zach Tuohy
Milestones: Robert Warnock – 50 games

Hawthorn
B: Paul Puopolo, Josh Gibson, Thomas Murphy
HB: Brent Guerra, Ryan Schoenmakers, Grant Birchall
C: Jordan Lewis, Sam Mitchell, Isaac Smith
HF: Chance Bateman, Lance Franklin, Shaun Burgoyne
F: Cyril Rioli, David Hale, Luke Breust
Foll: Max Bailey, Luke Hodge, Brad Sewell
I/C: Brendan Whitecross, Liam Shiels, Matt Suckling, Cameron Bruce
Emg: Michael Osborne, Jordan Lisle, Kyle Cheney

LAST TIME: Hawthorn 16.14 (110) d Carlton 8.12 (60), Rnd 9, 2010, Docklands
PAST FIVE: Carlton 0 Hawthorn 5
RECORD OVERALL: Carlton 114 Hawthorn 88 draw 2
AT THIS GROUND: Carlton 2 Hawthorn 4
SINCE 2000: Carlton 4 Hawthorn 12
BETTING: Carlton $2.20 Hawthorn $1.65