For the past two weeks, much has been made about the drop in the average AFL crowds across the country. Many attempts have been made to explain it. However, Michael DiFabrizio summed it up for me with a single comment.
“The Suns playing out of a small venue creates 11 games where it would be impossible to meet the league average, and that’s if you overlook the fact they are playing out of a smaller market and should not be expected to draw that many anyway.
Throw in the fact their lack of history means less fans at away games too and it’s perfectly natural for crowd numbers to dip. The same thing will probably happen next year with the GWS Giants.
Now, does this account for the entire 5.6 per cent? Maybe, maybe not.”
Read the last line again: “Now, does this account for the entire 5.6 per cent? Maybe, maybe not.”
N.B. It’s not actually five per cent.
2010 Avg: 38,417 2011 Avg. 34,950 = 10% drop.
So what else can account for the 10 per cent drop? Come to Brisbane.
Eight years ago, AFL took up a strong supporter base here off the back of three premierships. AFL had been accepted as a code Queensland plays, and was developing a strong grassroots support.
When the Reds went shitfaced in a big way, a lot of people turned to AFL. The Lions enjoyed a few successive years whereby strong membership numbers meant they had a very strong supporter base, the crowds would show up consistently and once a new financial manager was hired, the code in Queensland was starting to profit in a big way.
And this is evidenced by the members and home crowds from 1997 to 2010:
Year: Members: Avg. Attendance position
1997 16,679 19,550 8th
1998 16,108 16,675 16th
1999 16,931 21,890 Prelim. Finals
2000 20,295 27,406 Semi-Final
2001 18,330 27,638 Winner
2002 22,288 26,895 Winner
2003 25,578 31,717 Winner
2004 30,941 33,619 Runner-up
2005 30,027 33,267 11th
2006 26,459 28,630 13th
2007 23,072 28,848 10th
2008 23,079 28,128 10th
2009 26,324 29,172 Semi-Final
2010 29,014 29,908 13th
And so, looking at the statistics from 1999 to 2010, it can be seen that the Lions recieved steady support in their early years, and then really hit the big time from 2000 to 2005.
In 2006, numbers where down a bit, but by no means alarmingly down.
And even though they struggled to get anywhere near the finals from 2005-2010, apart from the one semi-final stage in 2009, membership numbers where still strong, even when the team performed badly.
Now look at this statistic:
Year Members Avg. Attendance
2011 20,792 20,459
Forget everything else, the question to be answered is, how on earth, given that with previously poor seasons they did not lose anywhere near as many members, did the Lions lose 8200 members and their average attendance drop by almost 10000, which is by the way, 33%.
The answer is rugby union has got its act together.
When a whole lot of people headed off to other sports in the early 2000s, even later 2000s, it seemed Queensland rugby was dead. Even major sponsor, BOQ ditched the Reds for the Lions.
And now the Reds will pay back the favour.
Queensland rugby fans had nothing to say that was positive for ten years, losing every game until 2008 in a dour way, then playing entertaining in the two years after that and still losing.
Fans bailed, following other sports, and after ten years, it was a legit excuse to say: “look, they are terrible.”
When the Reds came back in 2010, the crowds piled back.
In 2011, they got stronger in a big way, in effect, smashing the Australian crowd record three times in the one season, and upping their crowd average by 8000.
Fans in Queensland aren’t fickle, just rugby is taking back what it used to own.
And the Reds are set to continue to take it up more levels. With the premiership this year, they are targeting some very big crowd averages next year for rugby.
All of a sudden, the QRU is making a monster turnover and is going to pay it’s debts off relatively quickly – with the help of an ex-AFL man, Jim Carmichael.
And if the AFL doesn’t get cracking soon, the Roar (football team) will join in, and the Broncos crowds are only going to go up at the rate they are going this year.
The AFL needs to pump a lot more money into Brisbane as soon as possible, otherwise they could be on the wrong end of an embarrassing loss.
Jo
Guest
Jeremy Smith, Gareth Widdop and Drury Low who all came up through the Victorian Rugby League
betamax
Roar Guru
Kennoth. Viewers=Ratings. Ratings=Attracting advertisers and sponsors. Advertisers and Sponsors=Money. Money=A healthy code. Get it. Your'e new to this aren't you Kennoth. Try to keep up.
kennoth
Guest
..ho ho Swannie the facts are nearly 5 times as many fans across OZ go to watch AFL and I mean go to the venue put bums on seats than do RL fans. I discount TV, couch potatoes being force feed. Tv figures and ratings prove nothing except to propagators of advertising and media industry. Viewing is not Watching. TV viewing is Not a sport ..get it !
db swannie
Guest
Kennoth..i would love to see what your definition of "Dying Cause" is? Is it anything to do with RL being the most watched sport in OZ?? Please explain.
Bruce
Guest
Will that be before or after pigs fly?
kennoth
Guest
..its the old adage "the truth hurts" and the superior brand of the oval footy will eventually rule all over the land. The other so called footy brands with disappear down the gurgler when their media magnates run out of coin to support a dying cause !!
The Cattery
Roar Guru
I note that the Suns finished their season with a home crowd of 19+k against Hawthorn yesterday, to maintain the very healthy attendance average in their first season, noting they didn't win a game at Carrara and they were flogged every other week. Also, I think the two games on today (admittedly two games of minimal inerest) need only attract an aggregate of 31k for the AFL to have their highest ever home and away aggregate attendance.
Bruce
Guest
Now there is irony Jaceman. You claiming subtly when in fact you were guileless.
Sean Fagan
Guest
@ Jaceman. I gather your idea of one gaining perspective is someone being brought to kneel at the foot of the AFL four posted altar.
Jaceman
Guest
Sean your reputation would expand in the other half of the nation if you were less dogmatic - try it...one in middle age tends to get perspective.
Jaceman
Guest
Mitch Thanks an NRL realist with some perspective...
Jaceman
Guest
He is above all a humorist
Jaceman
Guest
Your figures lack basis - a billion over 15 years perhaps
James
Guest
How come no-one has mentioned the Suns? Some of that 10,000 drop is probably down to them. I used to know a couple of people who used to travel up from the coast for lions games but no longer do so. The reds probably play a part as well. Not much to panic about really, Aussie Rules has put down enough roots in Brisbane to survive lean times. From what I have seen a big chunk of AFL cash into North QLD and one or two games up there would snip a much bigger % of the market. The Northerners just want someone to notice them...
Sean Fagan
Guest
@Jaceman - you're mistaking me commenting on somethimg for me apparently 'defending'. Try to carefully discern the difference. The comment about Melbourne was solely about Redb not regarding long term Melbourne residents as Victorians. I couldn't care less if the team has Melb born players or not. I follow Manly, but I don't care who is born in Manly. What your S o O point is I have no idea. That RL owes Aust rules a big thank you? Hardly. The WAFL invented the S of O phrase that RL copied, but the idea of using non-residency for qualification had been debated in RL since the 1950s, and been used in many sports since the 1880s across the globe. Origin worked in RL due to the history that extended back to yearly series begun in 1908 - it is what fed QLD's desire to push Origin, and still is. The Aust rules Origin was never a two-team contest over three series. Good luck to you if you seriously think Aust rules should have credit for RL's Origin success. Football club memberships - don't think I've ever said much about this, other than that RL fans were encouraged in 1950s onwards to take up Leagues Club memberships as the way to show club support, and that FC membership haven't been a big part of RL culture. No scoop to learn the numbers are way below AFL clubs. Good day.
Xman
Guest
Wrong. The AFL Sunday afternoon game wins 90% of the time. What you guys forget to do is add the telecast into each market. Its not even a contest.
JVGO
Guest
There seem to be between 50-100 thousand people in Sydney who would definitely see the Swans as something positive. Who knows how many would see an association with the AFL as a negative at the moment after their ill considered efforts with GWS. The idea that all publicity is good publicity is simply false as Gallop continually points out whenever an incident occurs in the NRL. Sponsors he assures us are sensitive to the negativity in the Sydney media.
punter
Guest
What do you expect it's the biggest club in Australia No 1 sport.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
The business section of one of the dailies recently put the Swans jumper at the top of the list as the most valuable in sponsorship dollars, bar none.
Jaceman
Guest
Matt S I think News and the Storm are having a tiff at the moment but having relatives that worked there they threw a lot at it to boost Pay TV subs in Victorias but were only marginally successful