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NRL season goes down to the wire in final round

Roar Guru
1st September, 2011
5

The minor premiership, home finals, eighth spot and even the wooden spoon will be up for grabs when the NRL’s regular season twists and turns its way to a thrilling conclusion this weekend.

All eight games will have a bearing on at least one of those in a final round that is set to unfold as dramatically as the week which preceded it.

The fallout from last Friday night’s mayhem at Brookvale Oval will finally be known less than 24 hours before it is all on again – for even higher stakes.

By the end of Friday night, Newcastle or South Sydney’s season will be over.

One of them will be virtually assured of a top-eight spot and will be telling themselves they’re not nervous as they wait to see whether resurgent Canterbury can put a cricket score on Canberra on Sunday.

The wild ride that is the NRL means few would be prepared to put their house on the Knights and Rabbitohs avoiding a draw, a result that would mean the Bulldogs make the eight with a win.

Premiers St George Illawarra will still be in the hunt for a top-four spot and a home final with a Friday night win over Penrith.

But the Dragons will need a major boilover on Saturday, Cronulla to end the Wests Tigers’ seven-match winning streak, and the Warriors to beat North Queensland to stay there.

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Wins to the Tigers and Cowboys would have them vying for fourth on for-and-against with Tim Sheens’ side in the box seat.

Losses to the Dragons and Tigers and a Warriors win would have the Auckland side in with a chance of a home final.

“We’re just trying to focus on our game and worry about getting the result we want and it doesn’t matter where you finish, you’ve got to beat the good sides whether it’s week one or two or three,” Dragons captain Ben Hornby said.

No matter which way the results go, fourth spot will be sorted out by Saturday night, when the wooden spoon is also likely to be decided.

If Parramatta lose to Gold Coast at Skilled Park, the spoon will be the Eels’ for the first time since 1972.

If Stephen Kearney’s men win, the Titans will be hoping any Canterbury cricket score has a hint of Sachin Tendulkar on the subcontinent about it.

A massive – and that probably means record-breaking – win by the Bulldogs could leave the Raiders with the spoon.

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The focus on Sunday will quickly shift to the later games, with suspensions making it tough for Manly to rack up a big win over Brisbane in Darren Lockyer’s farewell and overhaul Melbourne for the minor premiership.

If it happens and the Storm, also without three banned stars, crash away to the in-form Sydney Roosters, the No.1 spot could be the Sea Eagles’.

With the Roosters-Storm clash replacing the Monday night fixture at 7pm on Sunday, fans could be left awaiting the final table until 9:00 that night.

“We’ve got 17 players, we put them on the plane Saturday, and those 17 players go out there Sunday night,” Storm coach Craig Bellamy said.

“We try and play our best every week. Sometimes it doesn’t happen, but that’s what we’re trying to do against the Roosters.”

Rundown on top-eight possibilities ahead of the last round of the NRL regular season:
MELBOURNE (1st, 42 points, +245 points differential)
Last round: v Sydney Roosters
Best case: First
Worst case: Second
Lowdown: The Storm will win the minor premiership barring a stunning turn of events

MANLY (2nd, 40 points, +216)
Last round: v Brisbane
Best case: First
Worst case: Third
Lowdown: Should finish second, with mathematical possibilities the only hope of shifting the Sea Eagles

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BRISBANE (3rd, 38 points, +131)
Last round: v Manly
Best case: Second
Worst case: Third
Lowdown: Should finish third, needing to beat Manly by more than 43 points to snare second

WESTS TIGERS (4th, 32 points, +81)
Last round: v Cronulla
Best case: Fourth
Worst case: Seventh
Lowdown: Win their relatively easy game by a healthy margin and the Tigers should finish fourth

NORTH QUEENSLAND (5th, 32 points +64)
Last round: v Warriors
Best case: Fourth
Worst case: Seventh
Lowdown: Beat the Warriors and they’ll likely be in a points differential dogfight with Wests Tigers for the last of the home finals

ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA (6th, 31 points + 122)
Last round: v Penrith
Best case: Fourth
Worst case: Seventh
Lowdown: A win over the Panthers should lock up fifth, but could still slump to sixth if Cowboys and Tigers win

WARRIORS (7th, 30 points, +99)
Last round: v North Queensland
Best case: Fourth
Worst case: Seventh
Lowdown: Top four now a long shot, best they can probably hope for now is sixth with a win over the Cowboys

NEWCASTLE (8th, 26 points, +19)
Last round: v South Sydney
Best case: Eighth
Worst case: Tenth
Lowdown: Win and a finals spot is theirs barring a Bulldogs miracle
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SOUTH SYDNEY (9th, 26 points, -15)
Last round: v Newcastle
Best case: Eighth
Worst case: Tenth
Lowdown: Beat the Knights and they should finish eighth, provided the Bulldogs don’t make up a points differential which already stands at 39.

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CANTERBURY (10th, 26 points, -54)
Last round: v Canberra
Best case: Eighth
Worst case: Tenth
Lowdown: Points differentials of 39 to Souths and 73 to the Knights mean the Bulldogs need a miracle to get into the finals given the two sides above them play each other. A win over Canberra and a draw in Newcastle is their hope.

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