Tonight’s game must have looked great on paper when the 2011 AFL fixture was being prepared. Two heavyweight sides slugging it out in the final round of the season before the finals swung into action.
No doubt those at AFL House would have hoped that something significant would rest on the outcome of tonight’s match when the fixture was penned.
That scenario would have cued media and fans to declare the finals as having started one week early and give the AFL finals series a kick-start.
The fly in the ointment is that both Collingwood and Geelong have first and second spot all tied up, and know who they will face in next week’s Qualifying Finals.
Very little rests on the result of tonight’s match and it looms as the blockbuster that, well, isn’t.
“Mockbuster at the MCG” might be more appropriate.
Except that’s not entirely true. Had Geelong defeated Sydney last week, you could reasonably expect both sides to put the cue in the rack for tonight’s match and keep their powder dry for the finals.
But Sydney’s upset win at the Cats home ground last weekend has the doubters back out in force. Suddenly the Cats are too old, too slow and not able to match it with the other AFL heavyweights.
With the Swans shock win last week, tonight’s match suddenly takes on greater significance for the Cats side. Lose tonight, and Geelong will head into the finals on the back of two losses, and an uninspiring win against Adelaide in its past three games.
Winning finals is all about having momentum at the right time of year, and a loss tonight will see the Cats momentum grind to a standstill.
Simply put, Geelong must win tonight’s match if it is to seriously contend for this year’s AFL Premiership.
Collingwood, on the other hand, can drop tonight’s match and not have its premiership hopes take a beating. The Pies are deserved white hot premiership favourites, and have had their sights firmly focused on the finals for the past several months.
The Collingwood brains-trust will be content to make it through tonight’s match without any further injury concerns. Collingwood fans may even view a loss tonight as a good omen, having lost to the Hawks in the final round of last season before ultimately winning the Premiership.
Unlike the Magpies, the Cats do not have the luxury of taking it easy in tonight’s match.
While Collingwood looks to secure back-to-back premierships this year, Geelong is vying for its third premiership in five years. Should Geelong be successful in winning this year’s AFL Premiership, it will join the Brisbane side of the early part of the previous decade in discussions about the greatest team of all time.
Geelong has done remarkably well in securing second spot, with many experts predicting the Cats would slide down the ladder this season after last year’s humiliating preliminary final thrashing at the hands of the Mapgies.
But under first year coach Chris Scott the Cats have tread water and are well-placed to make a final surge at a premiership before rebuilding in the next few years.
Yes, even this awesome Cats side must surely realise that their time at the top cannot continue forever.
Tellingly, since the Cats won the 2007 AFL Premiership, the best new player to emerge and make a spot his own in the Cats side has been mature age player James Podsiadly.
The Cats have an ageing list and there have not been enough promising signs from the younger members of the Geelong squad to suggest further tilts at the flag in the next few years.
Already Cameron Mooney has announced his retirement at year’s end, and I expect several more Cats players to join him.
The all conquering Brisbane side of 2001-2004 had a very sudden slide down the ladder after its loss to Port Adelaide in the 2004 AFL Grand Final, and I suspect that the end will come quickly for the current Geelong side as well.
For the Cats, its now or never in the quest for football immortality, and it all starts tonight.
Tip: Geelong by 13 points
Follow Michael on Twitter @michaelfilosi
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