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The date will be October 1. The place will be Auckland. The opponents will be historical foes England and their occasional nemeses from the north Scotland. The result unknown. Most pundits are predicting another English victory. Don’t put your house on it.
The facts prove that England has the ascendency over their northern neighbours. However the Scots don’t have to be consistently better than England.
They just have to better on one day and Rugby World Cup 2011 could be turned on its head.
Some experts predict Scotland will not even qualify for the finals stage, with 2007 darlings Argentina will repeat their performance. But the Scots have defeated the Pumas thrice since 2008, on each occasion away in Argentina.
If the Pumas can’t win at home, you wouldn’t tip them to beat Scotland in Wellington on 25 September.
Thus: The Thistle v The Rose part XXXXVVI. The last time these sides met was at Twickenham in March where after being locked at 9-9 at half time England kicked away to secure a deserved 22-16 victory.
Prior to that the Scots had secured a 15-15 draw in 2010 and a 15-9 victory in 2008. They can be more competitive against their old foe.
It begs the question, how do they win? In examining Scotland’s pre-Cup form they have all-important momentum by securing wins against Ireland and Italy, and in the not-so-distant past, victories over Australia, South Africa and Samoa.
England is not a team you defeat easily. You must outwit and dissect them. Victory by a thousand cuts. If I were Andy Robsinson I would formulate a game plan of taking England’s power game away from them, to force them into an unsettled scrap.
The last time the two sides met England were most impressive at set pieces. They managed to retain 95percent of their possession and steal 33percent of Scotland’s.
Lesson learnt is to play rugby that avoids stoppages with extended phases. In the clash in March, England turned over the ball at the breakdown 22 times.
Don’t play for touch, play the running game perhaps, and pick a genuine 7 who can pilfer well as this is clearly a weakness in the English game.
Let’s be realistic though. Patterson, Evans, De Luca and Dannieli are all fine players but not in the class of Ashton, Foden and Cueto.
So if there is to be running it should be direct and centered. Pick-and-drive, short-pass running. Get in behind the big English pack as quick as you can and look to draw their backs closer in.
This alone is not enough, however in conjuction with a precise kicking game, forcing the English outside backs into corner spaces with little room to run will frustrate them and perhpas force errors.
What is required is the kicker and the best the Scots have in that department is Australian-born Dan Parks. While Parks will not be remembered as one of Scotland’s great number 10s he does possess a good kicking game in general play and at goal.
He should be able to capitalise on any penalites conceeded by the English, which last time they met numbered eight. With context to field position this could potentially provide a team with 24 points. For Scotland to win they must take any points on offer.
If I were Robsinson I would pick the biggest, tallest pack I could. Perhaps play Nathan Hines at 6 with Hamilton and Kellock in the second row.
Scotland must do their best to dismantle English set pieces, and as Mark Loane stated recently, the lineout is still an area where possession can still be genuinly contested.
The game itself should be intriuging to watch as there is so much history between these sides, and wouldn’t the Scots love to get one over the English at a World Cup?
From an Australian perspective, a Scottish victory would potentially force an English All Black quarter or semi-final. Now wouldn’t that be a sight. Who will wear black?
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, but don’t write the Scots off just yet. If they are brave and cunning and execute a game plan that unsettles England for lengthy periods of time they just might blow this tournament wide open yet.
I am away for a dram myself!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.