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Finally! After 24 weeks of football the AFL finals series will begin this weekend. The AFL needs a bit of excitement this September to spice up a largely dull and predictable year. There, I said it.
This has not been an AFL season for the ages. The AFL needs a classic finals series to rescue a predictable 2011 season.
Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton and Hawthorn have been entrenched at the top of the ladder since very early in the season.
There was only one change to the top eight since the halfway mark of the season, with St Kilda making a late season charge into the finals at the expense of Fremantle.
The AFL season so far has resembled a protracted foreplay session, in which the main protagonists have been kept just far enough apart to prevent any meaningful interplay.
The public has been forced to compare the merits of the best sides in the league not by how they go head-to-head, but instead by the size of the floggings they dished out to Gold Coast, Port Adelaide, Melbourne et al.
You can jibber on all you want about the rise of West Coast, the fall of the Bulldogs and the promise of the Gold Coast, but these minor points only mask the truth.
There have been too many one-sided matches, too many meaningless games and not enough interesting storylines to make 2011 a classic year – until now.
Thankfully, mercifully, that’s come to an end.
It’s time to get it on.
So what surprises and excitement might the finals throw up? Here are a few things which will help bring the 2011 AFL finals series to life.
Key forward kicking a big bag of goals in the Grand Final
It’s been a long time since a key forward kicked a memorable bag of goals in the Grand Final. Sure, Mooney kicked five for Geelong in the 2007 Grand Final, and Akermanis five in 2003, but they weren’t memorable performances in the mould of Ablett’s nine goals in the 1989 Grand Final.
What this finals series needs is for a player to kick a big bag of goals in the big one. Think eight, nine, or (dare we dream it) ten.
The most likely candidates are Travis Cloke from Collingwood and Hawthorn’s Lance “Buddy” Franklin. After a quiet Grand Final in 2008, if the Hawks make it to the big dance this year I expect Buddy to have a big day out.
Excitement factor: high Likelihood: moderate
Team outside the top four making it deep into the finals
History says it can’t be done. No side has made the Grand Final from outside the top four since Carlton in 1999, and no side has won the premiership from outside the top four since Adelaide in 1998.
Could this year be different?
Of those teams outside the top four, St Kilda and Carlton look the most likely to make a genuine push deep into the finals. St Kilda has had a very strong past ten weeks, and will worry the top four sides should they get over Sydney on Saturday night.
Excitement factor: moderate Likelihood: moderate
Bring back the Biff
The surest way to spice up the finals is for a bit of biff, preferably at quarter or half time to ensure maximum mayhem. Most likely candidates? Carlton and Essendon are traditional rivals, so keep an eye on the elimination final this weekend.
If the Bombers make a play deep into September then a possible Hawks versus Bombers game may also bring out a few haymakers – these two teams have history.
Excitement factor: Extreme Likelihood: very low
Upsets, upsets, upsets
Nothing brings a finals series to life more than a few upsets. St Kilda defeating Geelong in the first week of the finals last year changed the face of the finals series, with Geelong and Collingwood facing off in a preliminary final, rather than the Grand Final which many tipped.
The first week of the finals throws up plenty of potential upset results. Was the heavy Collingwood loss to Geelong on Friday night just an aberration, or can West Coast topple the Mapgies on Saturday?
After a string of tight losses in recent encounters, can Hawthorn get the better of Geelong in what looms as the best match of the first week of the finals?
A few upset results this finals series will be sure to put an exclamation point on the 2011 AFL season.
Excitement factor: high Likelihood: moderate
Tips for first round of finals
Hawthorn by twelve points over Geelong
West Coast by one point over Collingwood
St Kilda by 20 points over Sydney
Carlton by 33 points over Essendon
Follow Michael on Twitter @michaelfilosi
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