As the Rugby World Cup 2011 dawns, the studying of squad selections, tactics and pre-tournament form has been exhausted by journos, pundits and armchair experts from Invercargill to Inverness.
But still we really have no idea who will hold aloft the William Webb Ellis trophy when the final whistle is blown.
So I asked myself, what is a sure thing going into this World Cup? I found myself thinking not so much of what teams will do, but what they will not be able to do if they lose certain key players during the pool and or finals series.
It sounds negative but really if we forensically examine some of the squads, it becomes evident to me that each team is really only one or two injuries away from potential World Cup oblivion.
Let’s focus the microscope on the teams, then:
New Zealand
Dan Carter: New Zealand will not win the World Cup if this genius sustains a serious injury. This man is the best fly half on the planet. Colin Slade is a fine player, but he is not Dan Carter. If Carter were to be injured, I have no doubt New Zealand would adapt, but in my opinion Carter is too crucial to the All Black cause.
Richie McCaw: I am not sure the back up of Victor Vito and Adam Thompson is enough to cover a potential loss of McCaw. Let’s face it, you can’t replace McCaw; he is a once in a generation player. You just do your best to get on without him. I fear if McCaw were lost to injury, New Zealand would find compensation for leadership via Thorn, Mealamu and Carter, but they would not be as effective at the breakdown.
Australia
Will Genia: Recently likened to Ken Catchpole and deservedly so. Much of the Wallabies attack starts with Genia; his ability to find gaps and exploit them is crucial to Wallaby success. His support play is also understated. He is a complete modern half back. With respect to Burgess, Australia will be not be winning ‘Bill’ without Will.
David Pocock: Like New Zealand, Australia appears to only have taken one specialist open side flanker into the tournament. A risk indeed and one I would not have taken. However, it’s not my team and Robbie Deans obviously thinks he can potentially win the cup without Pocock. I don’t agree.
South Africa
Bismark Du Plessis: With respect to John Smit, the battleship will be required if the Saffa’s wish to retain the cup. Smit is an aged champion and Rappapelle is okay. Bismark brings physicality, directness and a high work rate. Without him South Africa will struggle against stronger sides come finals.
Morne Steyn: It appears Peter de Villiers will play the 2007 tactics of which much is reliant on a solid forward platform and kicking game. I think they will get the platform, but without the ability with the boot they get from Morne, their plan may faulter. Lambie, James and Fran Steyn are not as good on the boot at Morne. If they wish to play 2007 rugby then Morne will be required.
England
Johnny Wilkinson: Toby Flood is a good player, but like Dan Carter is to New Zealand, I can’t see Hannovarians winning without Wilkinson. I mean, if I were English and it was an England versus New Zealand final, would you want Flood or Johnny? Johnny all day for me because he has been there and done that.
Ireland
Brian O’Driscoll and Paul O’Connell: Ireland’s form leading up to this year’s tournament has been poor. Both vastly experienced internationals with Lions caps to their names, O’Driscoll and O’Connell are vital to Ireland’s cause. Without them there is not enough depth in the Irish squad to compensate. If Ireland are any chance these two must remain fit.
Scotland
Dan Parks and Nathan Hines: Scotland’s Aussies are vital to the Scot’s chances. The other half Jackson is yet to fully establish himself as an international. Parks on the other hand has a solid kicking game, which will be required against sterner opposition as field position and penalties will be crucial to Scotland’s game. Hines on the other hand has the experience of 75 caps and a Lions tour under his belt. Losing that experience would be damaging to Scotland’s lineout, and hard to replace.
Wales
Steven Jones and Huw Bennett: Jones has 100-plus caps and Wales will require all Jones’ experience to progress to the latter stages. Hook is a fine player, but for mine Jones has proven temperament. With the loss of Matt Rees much will resting of the shoulder of Huw Bennett, as his reserves in Burns and Owens boast three caps between them. If Wales lose Bennett I fear their set piece will fold.
France
Aurlien Rougirie and Vincent Clerc: Between these two they have scored 47 Test tries. They have proven firepower and experience. Rougirie at 193cm and Clerc 179cm makes them two separate styles of player, but both have the same effect. They know how to score tries. Without these outside backs I think France would struggle.
Samoa
Schwalger and Tualigi: I confess I do not know much of these players, however I thought both were excellent in their historic win over the Wallabies. Samoa play a very dimensional game based on smash and bash. It works well, especially with these two. I fear without them Samoa would lose leadership and go forward out wide.
I really hope we don’t see any serious injuries during the tournament as we want to see the best play the best.
However, let’s be realistic, rugby is a contact sport and people get hurt. If the aforementioned players find themselves out, I fear their countries chances of winning the Webb Ellis Trophy will also be sidelined.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
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