New Zealand’s Conrad Smith, left, is chased down by Manu Samoa’s Filipo Levi in the International rugby test at Yarrow Stadium, New Plymouth, New Zealand, Wednesday, Sept. 3, 2008. AP Photo/NZPA, Ross Setford
The All Blacks will win the 2011 Rugby World Cup and win it well. The reason? Look no further than outside-centre Conrad Smith.
It really has been unlucky number 13 for the last three All Black World Cup Campaigns. Outside-centre has never been filled by a full timer.
Selection disasters, injury and rotation of the number 13 position have been a fundamental to the All Blacks World Cup struggles. Let’s take a look:
World Cup 1999
Alama Ieremia was the recognised outside-centre in 1999. He played every test in the number 13 jersey for the All Blacks prior to the World Cup, enjoying two wins over South Africa, a win and a loss against Australia, and wins against Samoa, France and New Zealand ‘A’.
Two things stand out; Ieremia was trialled against New Zealand ‘A’ and he performed, his selection in the following matches confirms that. Secondly, a 28 – 7 loss to the Wallabies appears to have opened the can of worms.
This was the final match going into the World Cup. Ieremia was successful all year but New Zealand had Christian Cullen, Jeff Wilson, Tana Umaga and Jonah Lomu to fill the back three.
John Hart couldn’t help himself and the loss seemed to give him the justification he needed. Christian Cullen, one of the most devastating full backs of all time, was shifted to number 13 for the World Cup.
We all know what happened after that. Richard Dourthe played outside-centre for the French that day, he also scored a try.
World Cup 2003
Tana Umaga shifted from the wing in 2000 and had well and truly established himself as the All Blacks outside-centre by 2003.
(I hear those of you thinking, well hang on this move appears to be the same as the one with Cullen. Yes it is, and yes it worked this time. But, it wasn’t trialled during a World Cup!).
Umaga went down in the All Blacks opening World Cup game against Italy in the 23rd minute. He played no further part in that World Cup.
We all remember what happened in the semi final, a wonderful intercept and the tactical genius of Eddie Jones sent the All Blacks packing. Few remember that the Leon Macdonald started at 13 for the All Blacks in that game.
It was clear that ‘King Carlos’ was having a ball during the World Cup, but unfortunately for him, he couldn’t flick pass the ball over the black dot.
The All Blacks needed a full time goal kicker and with Umaga out, John Mitchell thought he could solve two problems at once, Leon Macdonald to start at outside centre. Carlos couldn’t be relied upon.
Ignoring the obvious fact that Leon Macdonald has no ability to play 13, the above reasoning seemed okay.
We now know that Tana Umaga was fit for the semi final, John Mitchell has since acknowledged this. He did, however, still choose to leave him out.
Daniel Carter started three out of the four pool matches at inside centre for the All Blacks. He was the goalkicker in each game.
I acknowledge that Aaron Mauger was the preferred option, but Carter had proven his worth starting at number 12 in the pool matches and in several matches prior to the World Cup.
This would have solved the goal kicking problem far more effectively. How John Mitchell must wish he started Daniel Carter at 12 and Tana at 13 on that day!
World Cup 2007
In 2007 the All Blacks shuffled between Isaia Toeava and Luke McAlister in the outside-centre position prior to the World Cup. Neither was convincing.
During the 2006 Tri Nations, Mils Muliaina started at number 13. He also started at 13 during one of the end-of -year tour matches against France on the 18 November, 2006.
Mils had established himself that year as perfectly capable of holding down the outside centre position for the All Blacks. Yet, he didn’t start another game in that position until September 8 2007, the start of the World Cup against Italy.
Yes, that meant earlier that year during the Tri Nations, he started at fullback or on the wing. He didn’t play at outside-centre again until the quarter final against France and that was the end of another World Cup campaign.
Conrad Smith is an underrated force in the All Blacks backline. With so much focus on Nonu vs Sonny Bill, Cowen vs Weepu, Dagg vs Muliaina and ‘Every Winger’ vs ‘Every Winger’, we forget that Smith is as certain a pick as Carter or McCaw.
There’s no doubt he lacks spark, but someone in the team is needed to steady the ship and take the right option.
Does the below description provided by allblacks.com of Joe Stanley (All Blacks outside centre at the 1987 World Cup) sound familiar? This has to be a good omen.
“All his teammates rate him as the best centre of their time. He didn’t have a sprinter’s pace or a ram-rod fend but he did have rugby vision and the ability to do the right thing at the right time, every time.”
The same cannot be said about the outside-centres at the last 3 World Cups.
Sprigs
Guest
Percy will be too busy pointing at the porcelain. What about Wally the water wallah? He is the key to victory.
Justin K2
Guest
Now lets get serious now. When the grind is on it all comes down to the orange pealer! Its all about how you peal and deliver those oranges to the boys. My pick for most influential person in the world cup tournament will be Percy the orange pealer! There you go you heard it from me first!!
Johnno
Guest
Exactly but the point that fast pose poses that john mitchell should of played a 21 yr old dan carter over a in his prim 28 yr old calros spencer at 5/8 is nonsense. No cache in world rugby would of done that. And aron maguer was ahead of DC to then, maguer was a good player to. Leon mcdonald was a very good player to. ANd john mitchell was head coach would of seen all the backs at raining he made the call not deans who was an assistant. And Tana umaga was not match fit had all sorts of injury problems, but he pay of been able to play he was certainly filthy about not playing but he blamed john mitchell not Deans. Mcdonald was crusader to, this is at the time when robbie deans lived and breathed crusader land like no one else on the planet. Coaching the wallabies would not of entered his radar.
Jerry
Guest
Carter had played S12 & test rugby as a 12 at that stage too - he didn't transition to 10 till 2004.
Moaman
Guest
very good points Johnno
Johnno
Guest
fast pose lets put this into context. Dan carter wa sonly 21 at the time no one knew he would be the great player he was today. Carlos Spencer, was in great form that year and during the RWC he was the star 5/8 that year in world rugby. And Aoran Mauger was highly rated at I/C to seen as better than DC as an inside. And Tana usage was not totally match fit either. AND IT WAS JOHN'S MITCHELLS TEAM AND HE MADE THE TEAM Descions on tactics and selection not robbie DEANS AS YOU POINTED OUT. So i think you are not focusing on who Dan carter the player was then a young man 20 or 21 , and not focusing not he situation at the time eg Carlos spencer and aorn maguer were all ahead of him. Any coach in world rugby would of put spencer at 5/8 in 2003 ahead of Dan Carter. And tana wasn't totally match fit either, so some perpsective is needed, and Deans was not head coach either as your rightly pointed put, he was backs coach but John mitchell had final say not team selections and he would of got a chance to watch all the backs ingraining before he had final say. And Leon Mcdonald could sure play he was an awesome player rated very highly in NZ, he was a big guy and very skilled.
fastpoose
Guest
Just remember it wasn't John Mitchell who put Leon MacDonald at centre (shocking decision), and kept Carter and Umaga on the sidelines (2003 WC), it was....wait for it, ROBBIE DEANS, the failed All Black backline coach of WC 2003. I don't think many aussies know this point...
Turnover
Roar Guru
Cinematic, do not forget that Japan are the the Pacific Nations Cup holders, having beat Tonga 2 months ago. I am sure Tonga had a weakened team then but personally, I wouldn't be classing them as much of a contest.
Turnover
Roar Guru
cinemtaic, I agree completely. This is not an indication that SBW is likely to step into the XV, nor is a test for him to prove himself. The AB's are playing Tonga. Anyone who starts at 13 against them will benefit greatly from a plethora of front foot ball. It would be hard for SBW to come out of this game not looking good. Henry would know that... Conrad is being rested. Plain and Simple. Fantasy Land Stuff... had me laughing there! MR01 Kahui would always be my pick as cover for Smith. But Kahui is a very strong chance of taking on the wing spot full time for the world cup. He needs to get some game time. Its funny how Kahui receives a lot of support given his little experience (I realise that's due to injuries)
MR01
Guest
Agree
MR01
Guest
Why would you play Nonu at centre instead of Kahui (who's more likely to get the gig if Smith is injured) - curious.
MR01
Guest
& such a great player.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Seems to me like they're still messing around the side and don't know what their best backline is. God help us if they have different backlines in mind for different opponents/matches.
cinematic
Guest
Sure I think they know that. I also think they don't care. I am surprised they have decided to persist with rotation however.
Bob
Guest
If Henry and co. do mix and match like they did last WC with the same result- they will need to be asking Gillard for asylum. You don't think they know that?
cinematic
Guest
Heh. Very good.
cinematic
Guest
Forced by public pressure? You must be kidding. Tonga and France are the only real contests for the AB's in their pool. It makes sense to give the fringe guys a run against Tonga as Japan etc will be complete no-contests. The finals team will play France.
cinematic
Guest
Because Dagg has played one international in the last year. Mils has played several. SBW has hardly played over the last few months. Smith has had plenty of games. Nonu/SBW is a combo they've used in the past. To suggest Nonu/Smith may have been ousted for SBW/Nonu is fantasy land stuff.
Bob
Guest
Seems like the whole back 3 gets refreshed every match. If this three go well (which they probably will given the opposition) surely they will be forced by public pressure not to keep changing. Notice how Carter is never part of the 'rotation" sorry 'freshening up'.
Moaman
Guest
They have said the "backbone" will play every game......now usually Mils would be regarded as part of the spinal column but now he is being pressured by the latest young gunslinger to hit town.....clearly they are happy to "rotate" 4-5 players per match to keep some blokes fresh,some on their toes,some interested. I don't read any more into it than that---and I will await the team that plays France before I am confident that I have an inkling of what the 3 Wise ones are thinking.Just heard on News that the Selectors said Mils has "been having a flat patch" !! I'd say he will get his 99th v Japan and we will see from there.