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As we venture deeper into the second week of the US Open, the Big Four – Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Murray – once again dominate our predictions and deserve their favouritism to take out the men’s title.
It would take a brave soul to stake any more than a throwaway wager on any of the rest of the field. Yet, there’s something amiss. Is Federer truly a threat? Is this the first Grand Slam 2003 that Federer is not one of the clear favourites?
We know Federer is on the decline. As supporters, we can no longer speak with the same confidence about him going into a match. We can no longer simply assume victory when he takes on players outside the top five.
Roger has won 46 matches and lost 11 in 2011; he is winning around 80 percent of the time. A loss in the quarter-final against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, would drop him below 80 percent, something unseen since the 2002 season.
This would move Murray ever so close to the No. 3 ranking, given that Federer would have failed to defend his US semi-final ranking points of last year and that Murray has already defended the points gained from his third round exit.
We have come to accept that Federer is no longer a surety when it comes to Grand Slam semis. The Murray elevation is inevitable; It may almost be time to accept that the Big Four is down to a Big Three.
The first two quarter-finals have been decided and are as follows:
Quarter Final 1 – Novak Djokovic versus Janko Tipsarevic
Tipsarevic will take some confidence going into this match given his recent good form at the Rogers Cup in Canada where he overcame Fernando Verdasco and Thomas Berdych.
With wins over Juan Carlos Ferrero, Philipp Petzschner and again over Berdych (by retirement), he has done all that has been asked of him this tournament.
Djokovic heads into this match without having dropped a set in the tournament, having wiped the floor with Nikolay Davydenko and Alexandr Dolgopolov in his last two rounds.
It’s unlikely that Djokovic will show any mercy to his fellow Serbian. We can expect he will march into the semis comfortably.
Quarter Final 2 – Roger Federer versus Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
This is Federer’s final. A win over Djokovic in the semis is almost certainly beyond him. Despite Federer’s success at Roland Garros this year, Novak is superior at the baseline in stroke play and in terms of movement.
The speed of the hard court won’t allow Roger to compete in longer rallies.
A semi-final for Roger is a realistic goal for the tournament, and who better to stand in his way that his most recent nemesis?
They have met four times this year, with two wins apiece. Tsonga has however won their last two meetings, at Wimbledon and more recently on hard court at the Rogers Cup. Both these matches have gone the distance, with Tsonga proving too strong in the final set.
Tsonga has the game to hurt Federer and this will get him into the match. It’s his physicality which will win him the contest. Tsonga is relentless and provided he can stay focused, he will outlast Federer and win in four or five sets.
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