As we venture deeper into the second week of the US Open, the Big Four – Djokovic, Nadal, Federer, Murray – once again dominate our predictions and deserve their favouritism to take out the men’s title.
It would take a brave soul to stake any more than a throwaway wager on any of the rest of the field. Yet, there’s something amiss. Is Federer truly a threat? Is this the first Grand Slam 2003 that Federer is not one of the clear favourites?
We know Federer is on the decline. As supporters, we can no longer speak with the same confidence about him going into a match. We can no longer simply assume victory when he takes on players outside the top five.
Roger has won 46 matches and lost 11 in 2011; he is winning around 80 percent of the time. A loss in the quarter-final against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, would drop him below 80 percent, something unseen since the 2002 season.
This would move Murray ever so close to the No. 3 ranking, given that Federer would have failed to defend his US semi-final ranking points of last year and that Murray has already defended the points gained from his third round exit.
We have come to accept that Federer is no longer a surety when it comes to Grand Slam semis. The Murray elevation is inevitable; It may almost be time to accept that the Big Four is down to a Big Three.
The first two quarter-finals have been decided and are as follows:
Quarter Final 1 – Novak Djokovic versus Janko Tipsarevic
Tipsarevic will take some confidence going into this match given his recent good form at the Rogers Cup in Canada where he overcame Fernando Verdasco and Thomas Berdych.
With wins over Juan Carlos Ferrero, Philipp Petzschner and again over Berdych (by retirement), he has done all that has been asked of him this tournament.
Djokovic heads into this match without having dropped a set in the tournament, having wiped the floor with Nikolay Davydenko and Alexandr Dolgopolov in his last two rounds.
It’s unlikely that Djokovic will show any mercy to his fellow Serbian. We can expect he will march into the semis comfortably.
Quarter Final 2 – Roger Federer versus Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
This is Federer’s final. A win over Djokovic in the semis is almost certainly beyond him. Despite Federer’s success at Roland Garros this year, Novak is superior at the baseline in stroke play and in terms of movement.
The speed of the hard court won’t allow Roger to compete in longer rallies.
A semi-final for Roger is a realistic goal for the tournament, and who better to stand in his way that his most recent nemesis?
They have met four times this year, with two wins apiece. Tsonga has however won their last two meetings, at Wimbledon and more recently on hard court at the Rogers Cup. Both these matches have gone the distance, with Tsonga proving too strong in the final set.
Tsonga has the game to hurt Federer and this will get him into the match. It’s his physicality which will win him the contest. Tsonga is relentless and provided he can stay focused, he will outlast Federer and win in four or five sets.
Kane
Guest
Well he can and he has, even bageled him on it once. What you should be saying is Nadal can't beat Federer indoors
Rory
Guest
True...but, you know...move on people, nothing to see there.
violet
Guest
Hi Turnover. Having watched the federer-tsonga quarterfinal, don't you just feel like hiding in a hole somewhere?
M1tch
Roar Guru
Because he cant beat Nadal on clay
Rory
Guest
People have been trying to write Federer off since 2007. Why is that?
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Well, there you go. Federer didn't play his best tennis, but Tsonga couldn't get his service game like he did at Wimbledon and couldn't uncork the big winners.
jon sof
Guest
I am not sure who this reporter is, but this article if not serious… obviously, Federer is not the same player he once was 4 -5 years ago but he still better than Andy Murray. big 3 instead of big 4??? Maybe if you take Murray out and not Federer. I am a huge Nadal fan but you cannot dismiss Roger like that. I hope Nadal will reach fed one day, but as for now, Federer is still by far the best. Not only the 16 GS, I am talking about consistency, the ability to stay healthy, the fact that on an average day,. he still better than 95% of the players out there. Federer will win today vs Tsonga and I think he can take Djokovic. I agree that djokovic has a better chance to win but to say that federer has nothing to show against him? Give me a break. I was in Paris on june 3, 2011 when Federer won his semi…. That happened only 3 months ago. Talk to me tomorrow after the Q final…. Federer will win in 4 or 5 sets. Vamos Rafa!!
amazonfan
Roar Guru
I agree with the article. While Federer is the far better player from a historical perspective, Djokovic is the world's best player by a long way, and so I think a 'a win over Djokovic in the semis is almost certainly beyond him.'
ohtani's jacket
Guest
I like Tsonga as a player, but his victories over Federer this year have been about as meaningful as Berdych's run against Federer last year. If Federer's decline were as marked as people say he wouldn't have extended his quarterfinal streak. On tour he's only won one title all season, but his form in Grand Slams has been strong. Name me one other multilple time Grand Slam champion that's played so well after their last Grand Slam victory.
G
Guest
Great article Turnover. I disagree that Tsonga will overcome Feds, but you raise some good points, so we'll have to agree to disagree. I'd also like to say that despite being a massive tennis fan, a fan is all I am and far from an expert. I am however, both a fan AND an expert on spelling. So, Chris, a word of advice, if you are going to rubbish an article perhaps consider a bit more carefully writing about Hitler and the Nazis when describing Federer's and Fish's comparisons. Unless, you were looking for the word 'facet', in which case I apologise for the miscommunication. My pick is for Federer to beat Tsonga and Turnover to beat Chris in becoming a sports journo.
clipper
Guest
Chris, is the assumption that the Swiss hid much of the Nazis wealth what makes Federer better than Fish in all fascists of the game?
sledgeandhammer
Guest
Completely agree with Clipper, on his day Tsonga can beat anyone as he did at Wimbledon. Turnover, none of the top players are 'slow', particularly not the top 10, and especially not Federer, Nadal, Djokovic or Murray, these guys are amazing athletes. At the moment Federer is coping a lot of heat, largely based on his age. Reminds me Pointing and Steve Waugh being told to retire based on a number, not actual performance. But I reckon a lot of guys on the pro tour would love to have Federer's 2011 record, or 3 ranking.
clipper
Guest
Tsonga is a player who can beat anyone on his day (like Safin) and had that day at Wimbledon. Federer couldn't carry on at his dizzy heights forever, although perhaps he has raised the others games, so that it looks like his game has declined.
Turnover
Roar Guru
Djokovic has evolved from a defensive base liner this year into a far more attacking player, this is the reason for his success. This is what will beat Federer. Federer's 42 winners against Monaco included his 14 aces. Let's compare this to Djokovic's second round match against Carlos Berlocq (good for comparison due to nature of the scorelines), where he made 31 winners of which 5 were aces. In terms of non service winners, their stats are virtually the same (Feds 28 winners vs Djok 26 winners). IMHO, Federer is looking slow. The power and movement of Tsonga and Djokovic (which I have justified above), regardless of the nature of these hard courts, will still be to much for Federer. I am happy for you to disagree though! Thanks for your commentary.
knockon
Guest
Just to follow up my point regarding the court speed. Federer has pointed out the court this year is slow, which means guys like Joker can run down every ball. This doesn't suit Federer whose shots have huge penetration, which is why he hits so many out and out winners per match (42 versus Juan Monaco). Guys like Joker and Nadal wear players down, strangle them out of the match, they don't blast them off the court.
knockon
Guest
I disagree with this analysis. No one is playing better at the US open this year than Federer. Federer was also fantastic at Wimbledon in my view and was unlucky to encounter Tsonga, who was on fire in the last 3 sets. Tsonga can beat any player on his day, and at Wimbledon it was his day - every big shot he went for he got, there were not many drawn out rally's it was serve, winner. Against Djockovic suddenly Tsonga lost his consistency and those same big shots were going out. Federer also played amazing tennis at the French open, and the final against Nadal was very close. Federer to me is not on the decline, rather we Djockovic is on the rise - 24 seems to be the age most players peak these days, and further proof of this is the Serb's recent record against Nadal. You are also wrong in claiming the speed of the court will benefit Tsonga, a fast court will in fact benefit Federer, which is why he has openly complained that this year's US open surface is too slow, and partly why he did so well at Rolland Garros which had super fast balls this year. I read somewhere that Federer is the iron fist in a velvet glove, he is a tough competitor who has never retired hurt. Federer is as fit and strong as ever and endurance will not be an issue. He may lose, but it will take a great performance to beat him.
Turnover
Roar Guru
Hi Chris, Well done on deducing that Federer is better than Fish. That must have been a tough conclusion to reach. You must really know your tennis. Fish has had a stellar couple of months though , including a victory over Nadal and a three set loss to Djokovic in the final in Canada. That was a good win by Tsonga, regardless of your point above regarding Federer. I agree that Federer will need to come into the net, it appears you are supporting my point by raising this. Federer will not be able to to sustain the attack of Tsonga, let alone Djokovic, from the back of the court. It will be to fast. He will not be able to compete in rallies of any real length, is perhaps what I should have said. Therefore, something different, such as an all out net assault, is needed. If Federer was a true Big Four player, such a change up would not be necessary. In response to your 'Lol Ummm"..... You obviously have great faith in Roger. That's great. I stand by my point, I think he will lose to Tsonga, but if gets through, he won't touch Novak.
Chris
Guest
Rookie article. "The speed of the hard court won’t allow Roger to compete in longer rallies." - Thats why you can end the points quick... when fish came to the net against Tsonga he ended the point.. Federer is better than Fish in all fascists of the game. "A win over Djokovic in the semis is almost certainly beyond him" - LOL.. ummmm...