Luke Hodge of Hawthorn flies for a mark during the AFL Round 15 match between the Geelong Cats and the Hawthorn Hawks at the MCG, Melbourne. Slattery Media
Four games, four genuinely exciting and intriguing September match-ups. That’s what footy fans have to look forward to this weekend.
Geelong v Hawthorn
Here we have two teams with a lot of recent history. Following the 2008 Grand Final, Geelong players involved in the loss made a pact never to lose to Hawthorn again. So far, they’ve stayed true to that pact.
However, almost every single game has been a close call. The win-loss record of the past three years may disagree, but these are two very evenly matched teams.
Where they can be set apart on this occasion is the fact both teams played very different games last weekend.
The Cats played the minor premiers Collingwood. The Hawks played the wooden spooners Gold Coast. The Cats applied constant pressure to bring down their opponents. The Hawks rested a host of senior players in preparation for finals.
Make no mistake, Hawthorn will be fresh tonight. Don’t think the week off will make them rusty, because they achieved the rare feat this year of winning both their games the week after having a bye. Only West Coast and St Kilda did the same.
Chris Scott would argue his resting of players throughout the year has ensure his players will be fresh too, but the toll – or lack of toll, in Hawthorn’s case – from last week should be a factor.
They key players? Luke Hodge’s worst two games of 2011 both came against Geelong (12 disposals in Round 5 and 15 in Round 12). He’ll need to have a bigger output tonight.
For the Cats, James Podsiadly booted six in the last meeting of the two teams. He can’t go quiet tonight. Just like Josh Gibson can’t let him go nuts again.
Up the other end, the Tom Longergan-Lance Franklin duel is perhaps the most interesting match-up of the game. Containing Buddy to just two goals would be considered a success. Any more and the Cats might be in trouble.
Expect another close call, but Geelong should just make it over the line.
Tip: Geelong by 4
Collingwood v West Coast
There are two schools of thought about how West Coast would’ve reacted watching Collingwood get thumped by Geelong last week. The first is that weaknesses of the Pies had been exposed and the game executed by the Cats could also be done by the Eagles.
The second is that the result was the worst thing that could’ve happened, for no club wants to take on the best club in the land a week after being embarrassed to the tune of 96 points.
The truth is probably somewhere in between. After all, the issue of Darren Jolly’s knee is surely going to play to the Eagles’ advantage, with Dean Cox and Nick Naitanui contesting the ruck.
But last Friday night’s game meant more to one team than it did the other, so only so much can be taken from it.
The Eagles have won seven games in a row and have had a fantastic home and away season. Their wins over Geelong and Carlton at Etihad show they’ll take advantage of any side that doesn’t bring their A-game. That includes the Pies.
Will that happen, though?
The Pies welcome back Nick Maxwell, Leon Davis and Heath Shaw. They’ll be back to their normal selves this week. They may be troubled at some stage, but it’s hard to see Collingwood not finding a way to win this one.
Tip: Collingwood by 35
St Kilda v Sydney
Much like Geelong-Hawthorn, this match-up has been responsible for an unusually high number of close games in recent years. Saturday night’s clash should follow the trend.
St Kilda have had a ripping second half to the year, having won eight of their last ten. Also, their record at Etihad Stadium is impressive, having won seven of their last eight at the ground.
Sydney have came into the finals series with some last-minute form that has to be respected. Three weeks ago, after losing to Richmond, it looked like their season was cooked. The response has been a win over the Saints, a win over the Cats at Skilled Stadium and a comfortable victory over the Lions last weekend.
Adam Goodes needs to be stopped, he can’t be allowed to put in yet another BOG performance. The influence of Shane Mumford also needs to be contained, especially with Michael Gardiner not lining up for the Saints.
For the Saints, the most important player is probably Brendan Goddard. He’ll need to stand up and have a big night.
Nick Riewoldt also has the ability to influence proceedings, but his biggest haul against a top eight team this year is three – and the last time that happened was in Round 8 against Hawthorn.
The home ground advantage does help the Saints, but the recent form of the Swans – and individuals such as Goodes and Mumford – is hard to ignore.
Sydney by 8
Carlton v Essendon
Two intense rivals. A coach with his future arguably on the line. A full MCG. There’s plenty of reasons to tune into this one.
For all that, though, six weeks ago Carlton beat Essendon by 74 points. In the two weeks before their bye last week, the Bombers lost to West Coast by 57 points and had a lucky escape against Port Adelaide, winning by only seven.
The Blues had a down week last week, so you could argue their recent form ain’t so great either, but it’s fair to say they had one eye on this week against St Kilda. They’ll be a much different outfit on Sunday.
The form guide isn’t the only thing splitting these two teams. There’s an obvious quality gap when you compare the two midfields in Carlton’s favour. That would have to be overcome if the Bombers are to be successful.
Michael Hurley looms as a key man for Essendon. In fact, with Matthew Kreuzer not making it into the team and question marks over Michael Jamison, all of Essendon’s talls will play an important role.
Eddie Betts, who had eight goals last time these teams met, is one of the keys for Carlton.
Last week was an aberration for the Blues, they should have what it takes to get over the Bombers on Sunday.
Carlton by 24
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