By next Tuesday the mystery that is the state of Australian cricket will either take a step towards being solved or plunge back into the mire alongside Phillip Hughes’ plummeting batting average.
Fittingly, the step towards solving this mystery will play out in Colombo.
Although there will be no interrogation of suspects (Don Argus would make a great Columbo), the evidence as to the state of the national cricket side will be laid out for all to assess.
How Michael Clarke’s side handles the pressure of closing out the series will provide a small peek into the future.
Through door number one is a future of strong performances, mental toughness, Test victories, sunshine and lollipops that eventually leads to Australian cricket fans forgetting about the 2010-11 Ashes as if it were that one time they got embarrassingly drunk at the work Christmas party.
Door number two is the gateway to hell – In all its Argus Report glory.
Given their Test performances over the last couple of years, at the start of the series Australia would have happily taken a one-all series result (not that they would admit it as hoping for draws is for sissies).
However, having thoroughly outplayed Sri Lanka in the first two Tests they would surely feel aggrieved if they were to come home with anything other than a series victory.
Through the series so far the Australian batsmen have shown tremendous patience and skill, the bowlers have hunted as a pack, Michael Clarke’s captaincy has been refreshingly attacking, and their fielding has been world-class for the first time in several years.
Having won the first Test, during the second Test in Kandy an incisive team bowling performance in the first innings combined with a fantastic stand between Mike Hussey and Shaun Marsh put Australia in a winning position.
Unfortunately the combination of tropical weather and the Sri Lankan batsmen finally figuring out that when they are wearing white they aren’t playing Twenty20 conspired against the Australians. The match ended in the most English of results – a rain-affected draw.
Despite the less than desirable result there were certainly several performances of note for Australia.
Among them, Mike Hussey is starting to make everyone think he might be a robot the way he keeps churning out runs. Additionally, Shaun Marsh’s excellent ton on debut will help to silence the doubters (me included) that believed he doesn’t have the temperament for the longer form of the game.
Interestingly, Marsh’s innings of 141 meant that after just one Test he has a higher Test score than his Dad did in 50 Tests. Geoff’s best ever score was 138.
No doubt Shaun will forever remind Geoff of that. In fact, Geoff’s epitaph will probably read: “Here lays Geoff Marsh. Not as good as his son.”
With the series now shifting to Colombo for the third Test, it must be noted that Sri Lanka have an impressive recent record in their country’s largest city.
Sri Lanka haven’t lost a Test match at the Sinhalese Sports Club (SSC) ground since they last played Australia there in March 2004. Since then they have won six of the 10 played at the ground. Three of their last four wins at the ground have been by an innings (South Africa, Bangladesh and India).
It’s not a record that alludes to the ground being a fortress for the Lankans, especially on their current form, butit certainly indicates that they won’t be pushovers.
Historically, early in the match the pitch in Colombo has flatter than Will Smith’s flattop in The Fresh Prince of of Bel Air. There have been several 600+ first innings scores.
With Tillakaratne Dilshan’s side having rediscovered their batting mojo during the second innings in Kandy, the Sri Lankan captain will be hoping to bat first and let his talented batting line-up go to work.
Later the pitch generally starts turning round corners and the spinners have played their part in the results. And although Sri Lanka’s main man was Murali for many of those victories, it wasn’t only him. They will be confident if they can get Australia batting on the fifth day.
Australia has two selection dilemmas.
Michael Clarke has used the power of numbers to realise that four doesn’t go into three. The first blood on Clarke’s hands in his life as a selector will be that of Marsh, Ricky Ponting, Usman Khawaja or Phil Hughes.
Ponting looks likely to come straight back in after returning home to attend the birth of his child and Marsh surely can’t be dropped after making a hundred on debut.
Hughes looks the likely man to miss out. For his sake he hopefully has the good sense to not announce it on Twitter before the selectors are able to like he did in the Ashes of 2009.
In the bowling department, Ryan Harris looks likely to miss out with a slight hamstring tear. The Queensland quick must have smashed a mirror or two (or three, or four) in the last seven years given his run with injuries.
That or he could just have the body of an 80-year old woman with a degenerative bone disease. Either way it’s stopping him from playing cricket consistently.
Peter Siddle is in the box seat to replace Harris given his experience at Test level.
The weather could possibly play a part again with a chance of thunderstorms forecast for the first three days. An “English” result looks on the cards once more.
Although I’m sure Australia will want to win the match, I doubt they’ll be particularly disappointed if a draw is how it pans out.
I believe Australia deserve to win the series. Over the next five days we’ll see if they believe they do too.
Sri Lanka versus Australia
Third Test – September 16 – September 20 2011
Sinhalese Sports Club Ground, Colombo. Sri Lanka
Sri Lankan Team (from): Tillakaratne Dilshan (capt), Shaminda Eranga, Rangana Herath, Mahela Jayawardene, Prasanna Jayawardene (wk), Suraj Randiv, Suranga Lakmal, Angelo Mathews, Ajantha Mendis, Tharanga Paranavitana, Dhammika Prasad, Seekkuge Prasanna, Thilan Samaraweera, Kumar Sangakkara, Lahiru Thirimanne, Chanaka Welegedara.
Australian Team (from): Michael Clarke (capt), Michael Beer, Trent Copeland, Brad Haddin (wk), Ryan Harris, Phillip Hughes, Michael Hussey, Mitchell Johnson, Usman Khawaja, Nathan Lyon, Shaun Marsh, James Pattinson, Ricky Ponting, Peter Siddle, David Warner, Shane Watson.
Lolly
Guest
On tour, Clarke and Nielsen have made the 'drop Khawaja' decision while speaking with others. But it is their call overall. I hope you've put that Hughes as wickie suggesiton in as a joke. Someone on another blog suggested letting him open in one day cricket for Aus so that he gets used to international bowlers as if test matches somehow aren't enough for that? How he does mesmerise his fans.
Mathew
Guest
The communication between the selectors and the players is very poor as it is, CJ. If the selectors choose to do this, then the chances are (with Andrew Hilditch in the NSP), the players will not even know that there is a rotation policy and will be scratching their heads as to why they are dropped every third match. Alternatively, you could simply drop Mitchell Johnson. I am not sure what good he is doing with the ball in recent times. If you do this, then you can go into the third test with 8 batsmen and 3 bowlers: Trent Copeland, Nathan Lyon and Peter Siddle but this is pretty risky because the attack lacks experience. Johnson gives you experience. Phillip Hughes was a former wicketkeeper. We could drop Brad Haddin and let Hughes keep wicket. If he does this, then he will be one of the best batsmen who keeps wicket but I am not sure whether Hughes would like to do this especially since his spot in the team is not cemented yet. Also, his wicketkeeping skills might be rusty.
jamesb
Guest
i fear for Australia if Siddle replaces harris. With Siddle and Johnson in the same side, Australian bowling attacks tend to struggle more often than prosper. Its either one or the other, not both. Such a shame about Harris. He is starting to remind me of Bruce Ried. Then again maybe Harris should look at how his preparing for every game., Eg, Watson was injury prone as well. But he changed his training habits with less gym work and now Watson (touch wood), doesn't get injured that often. If anything, if rain does play a part in the third test, then its justice because rain did save Sri Lanka in the second test. Australia has been the better side for roughly 90% orf the series so far. Then again, the third test could be the test in which Trent Copeland might make a name for himself. Lets hope so.
Lee McDonald
Roar Guru
Good question CJ. I suppose the reluctance around rotating batsmen is the belief that it can mess with their form. Though surprisingly, no such worries seem to exist for bowlers. But with so much cricket these days (these three Test matches have been back-to-back-to-back) it could be something for the selectors look at.
CJ
Guest
Why not keep both? You can never have too many batsmen; and there's no point letting guys rot at home only to call them up to a big game with no Test form. Unless you're dominating the opposition, I don't see any problem with having a middle-order rotation (four or five bats through three/four spots, keeping openers fixed and assuming the captain stays). Same thing for bowlers; have a four-five man pace rotation (necessary anyway with Harris breaking down).
Lee McDonald
Roar Guru
All good points Matthew. I agree that turning the selection of the national side into a a merry-go-round is undesirable, but I think sometimes we can all tend to forget that even the great teams of the past changed slightly series-to-series (and sometimes match-to-match). Marsh wasn't knocking down the door when he got his chance last week. But he did take his chance with two hands. I don't think dropping guys after they make hundreds is the right message to be sending. The selectors have backed Hughes for now and Khawaja will get another chance in the not too distant future.
Mathew
Guest
I also should point out that while Khawaja hit a century on tour, Hughes hit 76 which isn't as good as a century but still means he is in some sort of form. And really 26 runs shouldn't decide a selection even though Khawaja retired out when he was on 101 (and could've possibly made more runs).
Mathew
Guest
Yes, Khawaja has been dropped but I am very disappointed with this decision. Shaun Marsh played one great innings and gets into the test team. If Marsh fails in the third test (twice, for example), what do you do? Bring back Khawaja? Cricket Australia needs to stick with a group of young players; dropping players after they do nothing wrong only hurts their confidence and turns Australia selection into a merry-go-round. You certainly have a point that Hughes has not scored many runs in his recent innings. However, I think he shouldn't have been selected in the first place during the Ashes 2010/11 because he was out of form at that point in time. You've got to feel for Hughes; when he is in form, he is dropped and when he is out of form he is retained. The selectors have messed with Hughes too much; I think it's time to give him 10 test matches to see what he's capable of. If he performs, then this is great for Australian cricket. He is in very good form (with Australia A and NSW) and now is the best time to see what he is capable of. The point is that Hughes' first class batting average is miles ahead of most in Australian cricket. If he's not scoring runs at international level, then how can you expect people like callum ferguson to do so when their average is in the mid 30's? Of course, there are exceptions, e.g., Michael Clarke averaged in the mid 30's in FC cricket before he was selected. But we has 22 years old at the time whereas Shaun Marsh is nearly 30 and averages 38 ish. If you're perfoming when you're young, then it can only bode well for the future. Also, you don't knock around Dale Steyn and Morne Morkel (and Jacques Kallis) without serious talent. If Hughes isn't performing for a long time, then there will be pressure and rightly so. But we need to give him time. Steve Waugh averaged less than 30 with the bat in his first 30 test matches (a long time) and now is regarded as a test batting legend. Hughes also has time on his side, he is 22, and averaging above 50 in first class cricket, which for me is good enough to have an extended run in the side. His technique isn't conventional but it's working for him which is what ultimately matters.
Lee McDonald
Roar Guru
Hughes is simply an eye player (though certainly a very good eye). His technique has already been exposed on several occasions in his short Test career. He is averaging just 18 runs an innings in his last 5 Tests. Khawaja's technique looks a lot more solid, he has already hit a ton on this tour (in the warm-up match) and has done nothing wrong so far on tour. I'm all for consistency of selection, but sometimes that has to give way to form and felt Marsh deserves to hold his spot. In saying that, it appears you have got your wish Matthew. Australia have announced their side and Khawaja has been dropped with Marsh to drop down to the number 6 spot.
Mathew
Guest
I think axing Phillip Hughes would be the silliest decision Australia cricket could make. The reason for axing Simon Katich was that they wanted to "bed down" the opening combination of "Shane Watson and Phillip Hughes" for the 2013 Ashes series. If you axe Hughes two tests after you have said that, then your selection policies look all the more ridiculous. I think you need to give Phillip Hughes an extended run in the test team. Could you please explain what Usman Khawaja has done that gives him the edge in selection over Phillip Hughes? Khawaja has scored less runs than Hughes in his last two tests and moreoever Hughes has scored more first class runs in his last 10 first class innings than any (I repeat, any) batsmen in world cricket. Also, Shaun Marsh scored 141 on debut but tough luck to him; one innings is not and should not be enough to break into the team. If it is, then this says a lot about the lack of team stability in Australian cricket. In the words of Steve Waugh, you need to pick a group of young players and stick with them through thick and thin. Hughes and Khawaja need at least until the end of the India test series in January, 2012 to cement their positions in the test batting line-up. Neither of them is horrendously out of form to warrant being axed after two test matches. A consistent selection policy entails dropping players only if they are out of form. The only exceptions would be when there are so many players knocking down the test selection door that it is impossible to ignore. However, other than Shaun Marsh, no-one is knocking down the test selection door for batting (except David Hussey, Mark Cosgrove, Phil Jacques, Chris Rogers etc. but these players will be ignored by the Australian selectors for some ridiculous reason). I really do hope that Hughes is backed to perform. The kid has serious talent and has scored twin centuries in only his second test match. Also, he is 22 years old. Please give him an extended run in the test team; he will perform. His first class batting average exceeds by miles the batting averages of every other player in Australian cricket except for Ricky Ponting (and even Ponting's batting average in first class cricket is not more than 3-4 runs higher than Hughes'). Mathew