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Expansion is a hot topic here on the Roar. Indeed, expansion in the NRL is a hot topic in the pubs and clubs across the country.
Everyone is an expert (yours truly included) about exactly where the NRL should expand to next and why they would be foolish and indeed financially suicidal not to follow our advice.
However, in the real world expansion is not that easy. It does not matter what the Central Coast Bears supporters might make you believe.
Let’s look at some history, shall we?
The first half of the century saw the formation of and evolution of the Sydney Rugby League competition (direct ancestor of today’s NRL). We’ll ignore the first 20 years because this was the establishment period.
From 1930 onward, however there is a distinct pattern emerging.
In the 1930s, there was one club added to the competition – Canterbury. They were successful and have since established themselves as one of the most prominent clubs.
The next round of expansion occurred after the second World War. The flurry of expansion led to the foundation of two clubs in the 20 years after the war. They were Manly and Parramatta.
Again, both clubs established themselves and after surviving some lean years (remember Parramatta waited almost thirty years for their first Premiereship!) turned into rugby league powerhouses.
Both these clubs were added to the competition in 1947.
Jump forward another twenty years to the next round of expansion. In 1967, (presumably they were waiting until St George had finished winning all the Premiereships?) Cronulla and Penrith were added to the competition.
Again both clubs were given time to establish themselves and they both built a fairly solid fan base.
Jump forward another fifteen years to 1982. The first non-Sydney teams were added. The Canberra Raiders and the Illawarra Steelers join the comp.
The Raiders established themselves very quickly (winning a Premiereship within the first seven years was incredibly fast by their standards). Illawarra would eventually merge with St George – so maybe half-successful.
So, in half a century we have six clubs being added to the competition – and five and a half of them establish themselves and put down deep roots and traditions within the sporting community. Not a bad record.
However, starting in 1988, it appears that all hell broke loose.
Look at these numbers.
In 1988, three clubs joined the competition; Brisbane Broncos, Newcastle Knights and Gold Coast.
In 1995, (just seven short years later) four clubs joined the competition; North Queensland Cowboys, Auckland Warriors, Western Reds and South Queensland Crushers.
In 1997, two more clubs; Adelaide Rams and Hunter Mariners (yes, I am aware there was something called Super League).
In 1998 the Melbourne Storm joined.
So in ten years we had ten new clubs. That’s more than in the 50 previous years.
So let’s have a look at how successful these clubs were:
The Broncos, Knights and Storm have all become powerhouses of Rugby League. The Cowboys and Warriors have tethered on the edge of collapse a couple of times, but have survived.
However, the Gold Coast, the Western Reds, the South Queensland Crushers, the Adelaide Rams and the Hunter Mariners have all folded up and gone home.
So we are left with a 50 per cent success rate.
Now if you were in business (and let’s be honest – the NRL is a business), which expansion model would you follow? The one with a ninety percent success rate or the one with the fifty percent success rate?
In the ten years since, sanity has again returned. Only one club has been added to the competition and (not withstanding this year’s on field results) has been quite successful so far.
However, the push in the media and on this site for massive expansion as soon as the Independent Commission is up and running (and how I’d hate to be on the commission – it seems as though if they’re not turning water into wine and walking on water within the first week they’ll be labelled a failure too!) is a dangerous one.
The rugby league community has been down this road before.
And the scary part is that some of the clubs being thrust forward as contenders for expansion now look almost exactly like the failures of the yesteryear.
Second Brisbane team? – Check – South Queenslander Crushers
Perth Team? – Check – Western Reds
Central Coast Team? – North Sydney Eagles/ Hunter Mariners (okay Newcastle isn’t exactly central coast, but it’s close)
Adelaide Rams? – Are you mental?
There is one ray of hope. It took the failure of one Gold Coast team in the 1990s to get a successful one up and running the 2000s. So maybe there is a chance.
So let’s hope that when the expansion does happen, it takes place slowly and methodically to ensure that it’s done right.
The lessons are fairly obvious.
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