The ultimate 2011 AFL Grand Final preview

Steve Johnson of Geelong laughs as he celebrates a goal ahead of Alan Toovey of Collingwood during the AFL Round 24 match between the Collingwood Magpies and the Geelong Cats at the MCG, Melbourne. Slattery Images

Well, the biggest game of the AFL season is now only one day away. Collingwood and Geelong, two worthy opponents, are set to clash to decide who will be this year’s premiership team.

But can Collingwood really go back to back and send off Mick Malthouse with one last premiership?

Can Geelong really win their third flag in five years and make Chris Scott a premiership coach in his first season?

On the eve of the 2011 AFL Grand Final it’s time to answer these questions, one key factor at a time.

Factor 1: Form

On paper, form is one gigantic plus in Geelong’s favour. Since thumping the Pies to the tune of 96 points in Round 24, they impressively disposed of Hawthorn and were able to cruise through to the Grand Final last week against West Coast.

Collingwood, in contrast, just haven’t been as convincing. They had to work hard for their finals win over the Eagles in week one and nearly got knocked out entirely by the Hawks last week.

But the argument goes both ways. It could be said Collingwood found their mojo last week.

They were 21 points down in the third quarter against a very good Hawthorn outfit and then, suddenly, everything changed – there had to be a reason, and it’s not like the Hawks significantly dropped off.

You could say it was the Pies rising to the occasion and rediscovering the football that had gotten them to where they were. Likewise, you could also say the Cats playing on cruise control last week wouldn’t have given them a healthy preparation for the intensity that awaits them in the Grand Final.

If all that has sent your mind in a million different directions, here’s the solution to get you thinking straight: throw the form guide out the window.

Advantage: Neither

Factor 2: Match fitness and injuries

Just because you are named in the teams on Thursday afternoon, doesn’t mean: A) you are actually going to play, nor B) you are actually 100 per cent fit.

Dr Peter Larkins, footy’s resident medical expert, days ago rated Darren Jolly a 20 per cent chance to play.

“With groin injuries normally we’re talking about how many weeks they’re going to be (before they play again) not how many days they are,” he said.

All this makes it hard to see – even if he does indeed play – a similar Jolly to the one so dominant this time last year. And that means finals specialist Brad Ottens could very well have a field day for the Cats, à la the 2007 preliminary final.

Key defender Ben Reid, who also has had groin problems, has been rated a better chance to play than Jolly all week. However, if his game this week resembles his game last week, it could spell trouble given it would leave just Chris Tarrant as a qualified match-up for the big bodies of Tom Hawkins and James Podsiadly.

So basically, a lot is riding on these two players. The consequences of Jolly and Reid missing – or worse, missing in action – are massive.

Then there’s Geelong’s Steve Johnson.

He’ll be put through his paces today to prove his fitness but whatever happens, it’s hard to see him delving too deep into that famous bag of tricks given the incident we witnessed only six days ago.

However, a forward-midfielder is easier to replace than a key defender or ruckman. When you also factor in the Pies’ niggling concerns – like Nick Maxwell’s ribs and thumb, and Ben Johnson’s calf – then remember how Chris Scott has re-wrote the textbook on managing players to peak come finals, things quickly swing Geelong’s favour.

Advantage: Geelong

Factor 3: Game plans and coaching

The Collingwood game plan has been broken apart in the past month and a bit, while the Geelong game plan has gained a new edge in the past month and a bit. That, at least, is the feeling you get reading some analysis this week. It might hold some merit, too.

In 2010, the Pies never once lost the time spent in forward half statistic. This year, in Rounds 1-23, only once were they beaten.

Yet in their past three games, the ball has spent more time in the opposition’s forward half every game. That included the Round 24 game, where the ball spent a whopping 19 minutes 57 seconds more time in the Cats’ forward half.

The Pies’ game plan relies, at least partially, on forcing turnovers in the forward half to create scoring opportunities, so this is an important change of events.

Geelong, meanwhile, have recently adopted more of a long kicking approach to the game.

“The most notable change came in round 24 when Geelong had 67 effective long kicks (to a teammate or leading to a stoppage) in the 96-point victory over Collingwood. That was a season high for any team,” Paul Daffey of AFL.com.au writes.

“Then the Cats had 76 effective long kicks in the qualifying final against Hawthorn and 75 in the preliminary final against West Coast.”

These numbers reflect what we were already suspecting: Geelong are kicking the ball long inside 50 to their tall timber (Hawkins, Podsiadly, Trent West, Ottens) to set up either a mark or an opportunity for their smalls (Mathew Stokes, Allen Christensen, Travis Varcoe) to create something.

So far, it’s worked a treat.

On the coaching front, it must be pointed out that you’d back Malthouse and his experience to produce a game-changing Grand Final move more than you would the rookie Scott. So there’s a slight advantage to the Pies there, however overall that rookie has done exceptionally well to put the Cats where they are in now.

Advantage: Geelong

Factor 4: Geelong forwards v Collingwood defenders

Reid’s fitness makes this one a bit tricky, but if he’s good enough to do a decent job of containing one of the Cats’ key forwards, this one goes in the Pies’ favour.

Maybe if Daniel Menzel was still around or Stevie J had a flawless preliminary final it would be different. But the Pies do have a quality group of defenders.

Reid was, after all, an All Australian this year. Tarrant has likewise had a massive year. Both have ensured the season-ending injury to Nathan Brown didn’t have an overly noticeable impact.

Hawkins has looked good in recent finals, but it’s hard to see him kicking more than two goals. Podsiadly could do some damage, but the expected wet conditions most likely won’t favour him.

The intriguing sub-plot in this area of the ground will be Leon Davis. Can he finally put his Grand Final demons to bed? Surely, it’s time for Neon Leon to shine.

Advantage: Collingwood

Factor 5: Collingwood forwards v Geelong defenders

Travis Cloke has been a star of the competition this season. 66 goals, All Australian selection and a double-digit vote tally on Brownlow night have been testament to that.

However, Harry Taylor seems to always get the better of him. Ever since their first encounter (won convincingly by Cloke) the Pie forward’s haul against the Cats has been only seven goals from seven games – with only one of those goals from when Taylor was his opponent.

It’s one of the key match-ups of this game, but if the biggest factor in Cloke’s favour is a big season, well, pretty sure we can use that same argument with “15 goals conceded” Taylor.

Assuming the Cloke domino falls, from there Geelong should win. Matthew Scarlett and Corey Enright have both had All Australian years and are great at what they do. The rest of the back line have been good enough to keep Darren Milburn out of the side.

Advantage: Geelong

Factor 6: Midfield

Sure, on one side you’ve got Joel Selwood, Jimmy Bartel, James Kelly, Joel Corey and more … but on the other you’ve got Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury, Luke Ball, Dale Thomas and more again.

The two midfields are on the surface difficult to split, but you get the sense Swan and Pendlebury are the best two players out of the aforementioned eight. With Ball literally in match-winning form and Thomas always capable of something special, the Pies do appear to hold an edge.

On The Footy Show last night, Nick Dal Santo gave the Pies’ midfield unit his tick of approval on the basis that they still use their rotations well and have plenty of options to throw into the middle of the ground.

Plus, as I’ve been saying ad nauseam for the past month, Geelong were the second-worst clearance team of the home and away season. Now, surely that’s got to count for something.

Advantage: Collingwood

Factor 7: Ruck

As discussed under the match fitness and injury sub-heading, this is one area where it’s not hard to see Geelong winning. Ottens performs in finals and with Jolly most likely restricted, it’s an obvious worry for the Pies.

Throw in the form of the back-ups – West is looking sharper than Leigh Brown – and this is one way territory for the Cats.

Advantage: Geelong

The final result

For those keeping score at home, that’s four factors in favour of the Cats, two for the Pies and one factor that really should’ve been left out of this whole exercise. And arguably the biggest factor – match fitness and injuries – is in the Cats’ favour, too.

My tip? Geelong by 25.