Sunday’s UFC 136 will see UFC lightweight champion, Frankie Edgar and the undefeated, Gray Maynard duke it out for the third time. The score currently sits as 1-0 in Maynard’s favour after their epic January bout went to a five round draw.
The two have made up a substantial part of each other’s careers with Maynard giving Edgar his first and only loss to date while, come Sunday night, Edgar will have made up one quarter of Maynard’s total record.
Monuments be damned though, the real question here is: how will the fight actually play out come Sunday?
It always seems to be the case with Mixed Martial Arts trilogies that what seems to be an extremely close third fight actually turns out to be a blow out that we should have seen coming
When Quinton “Rampage” Jackson met Wanderlei Silva in the final chapter of their trilogy in 2008, there was a heap of support behind “The Axe Murderer” because of him being 2-0 and the perceived mental effect this would have on Rampage.
As it turned out, Rampage KO’d Silva in just over three minutes and made clear what we should have all seen in the first place. He had simply evolved more since their first meetings.
The squared ledger between Chuck Liddell and Randy Couture was enough for many to back ‘The Natural’ in their third bout in 2006. Of course, Liddell just picked up where he left off in their second bout and KO’d the legend in the second round.
So is there an obvious line of reasoning for a winner behind the third Edgar/Maynard bout that is being overlooked?
If you were to go off simply their first bout and the first round of their second it would be the size of Maynard.
As one of the biggest and strongest lightweights in the UFC, Maynard holds a strength advantage over most men, let alone Edgar who is one of the division’s smallest fighters.
That showed clearly in their first fight as Edgar was rag-dolled by Maynard and lost a clear unanimous decision. Then in the first round of their January clash, Maynard translated that size into a power advantage that completely hammered Edgar for the opening five minutes.
But if you were to look at the last four rounds of their UFC 125 battle, it was the speed and striking of Edgar that looked to be the difference.
Once Edgar got into his groove and learned to avoid Maynard’s booming left hand he was able to bamboozle his bigger opponent with his lightning fast movement.
Such was the speed advantage that Edgar was even able to use it to takedown Maynard, which is something that barely anyone has been able to do throughout Maynard’s career.
So which line of reasoning is more, for lack of a better word, reasonable?
While Maynard’s power has fight ending potential his wrestling, which he used to dominate Edgar the first time around, has almost been negated by Edgar’s evolved speed game.
The perfect example of Edgar using this newfound style to stave off bigger wrestlers was his decision win over former champion, Sean Sherk in 2009. Unable to grab a hold of Edgar, Sherk was forced to eat Edgar’s combinations for the whole fight.
Maynard showed in those last four rounds against Edgar and in his fight with Nate Diaz that he doesn’t react well when things don’t go his way. This is one instance where a fighter’s nickname (“The Bully”) actually represents his fighting style.
It’s this reason why I am leaning in favour of an Edgar decision win to make it 1-1-1. But while I think the styles match-up in Edgar’s favour I definitely don’t think it is to the level of the other trilogy examples I mentioned above.
Maynard’s power is always a game-changer and there’s no telling how he used that January experience to adapt his strength and wrestling to suit Edgar’s attack.
While I may favour Edgar over Maynard it’s that debate over speed versus power that always splits fans and experts alike.
Which is exactly what you want out of a trilogy fight.
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