Western Sydney is the latest location to be verified by the AFL as a new expansion market. But where will the AFL go next?
And what will the implications mean for the current competition. Below is a breakdown of the top 20 cities in Australia that have/don’t have AFL teams sorted by population:
1. Sydney, NSW – 4.5 million – two AFL teams.
2. Melbourne, VIC – 4 million -nine AFL teams
3. Brisbane, QLD – 2 million – one AFL team.
4. Perth, WA – 1.7 million – two AFL teams.
5. Adelaide, SA – 1.2 million – two AFL teams.
6. Gold Coast, QLD – 600k – one AFL team.
7. Newcastle, NSW – 500k – zero AFL teams.
8. Canberra, ACT – 400k – zero AFL teams.
9. Wollongong, NSW – 300k – zero AFL teams.
10. Sunshine Coast, QLD – 250k – zero AFL teams.
11. Hobart, TAS – 215k – zero AFL teams.
12. Geelong, VIC – 180k – one AFL team.
13. Townsville, QLD – 170k – zero AFL teams.
14. Cairns, QLD – 150k – zero AFL teams.
15. Toowoomba, QLD – 130k – zero AFL teams.
16. Darwin, NT – 120k – zero AFL teams.
17. Launceston, TAS – 105k – zero AFL teams.
18. Albury, VIC/NSW – 105k – zero AFL teams.
19. Ballarat, VIC – 96k – zero AFL teams.
20. Bendigo, VIC – 92k – zero AFL teams.
By looking at those statistics you can dissect that the AFL has a presence in the top six populated regions of Australia, which is an impressive feat for a competition run solely in Victoria 30 years ago.
Purely looking at those statistics also suggests the AFL’s next move should be either into North Queensland or Central NSW, with the possibility of NSW clubs sharing games in Canberra.
The point of interest that should be taken from these statistics is whether Tasmania deserves an AFL team of their own and why.
North Melbourne has agreed to play two of their eleven homes in 2012 at Bellerive Oval in Hobart for the sole reason of financial gain. Sadly for Tasmanian footy fans, this story is all too familiar across Australia as the ‘travelling Kangaroos’ have attempted this before in Sydney, Canberra and the Gold Coast with none resulting in relocation.
A positive to take from North Melbourne playing Hobart is the simple fact that following North’s departure from Sydney and the Gold Coast, both cities gained AFL teams within five years of the Kangaroos leaving.
This is where it starts to get tricky for North Melbourne; if Tasmania are granted an AFL license sometime in the near future where does North continue to gain money? The Demons have set themselves up in Darwin while Richmond have the monopoly over North Queensland.
Do the Kangaroos move back to Canberra? Do they attempt to set up a presence in central NSW? You would think the Giants and the Swans would have first preference over those areas anyway.
The simple fact of the matter is Melbourne is not strong enough to justify nine teams in a national competition and the sooner Victorian clubs realise this, the sooner they can avoid a Fitzroy situation where the club is virtually non-existent now.
Bellerive Oval is where North Melbourne will play home games for the next few years, and a quick assessment of the grounds will show it is not a extremely impressive venue. Bellerive only seats 16,000 people at the moment, which is no where near enough to justify an AFL being based there.
It would seem an AFL minimum seating capacity for a team based in said city would be 25,000 with both Metricon (Gold Coast) and Skoda (Greater Western Sydney) Stadiums holding that amount respectively. From this information we can set a benchmark of events that must occur to ensure Tasmania get a team.
The people behind the Tasmanian bid must secure funding for an upgrade to either York Park or Bellerive Oval, the team will almost certainly have to spend one year in the VFL before joining the AFL and will probably need to sign up at least 15,000 members before round 1 of their first season.
Teams in Cairns, Darwin, Canberra and Newcastle to follow after the introduction of a Tasmanian team.
Weekes
Guest
Promotion/Relegation for two leagues could be steadily introduced over ten - fifteen years and would work well and could even help solve financial problems with some clubs. Two leagues of 12 with all clubs in a league playing the other twice home/away. That is 22 rounds. Then he grand final winner of the lower league replaces he lowest placed club in the higher division eliminating the throwing of matches for draft picks. You would split the draft pool into two separate pools; A and B. The better players would be in pool A. Then simultaneous drafts would take place so that the lowest clubs in each league would get the best picks as in the present system with the Premiership picking from pool A and the first division from pool B. Most importantly the licence fee would be cheaper for the second division which would help out newer or smaller clubs or those with financial problems. Also the AFL could relegate a club unable to make the higher licence payment instead of the last place club and has the option of using relegation as a penalty for severe breach of the rules. (Essendon would probably have received that penalty). It could work if instituted carefully over time. Start off with a separate league of smaller sides, perhaps a mixture of new clubs and ex-state sides. Then after five or so years take the current AFL clubs with the worst financial problems and place them in the league so that they profit over the decrease in their licence. Then after several years link the leagues.
Lachlan
Roar Guru
In a true national competition, you cannot have 10 teams in 1 state and 8 other teams, 2 from each state. 3 or 4 maximum in the one city. By 2030: AFL: 16 teams Adelaide Port Adelaide West Coast Fremantle Sydney GWS Giants Gold Coast Brisbane Tasmania Northern Territory Mandurah/Rockingham Cairns/Towsnville Melbourne Wildcats (Richmond/Melbourne/North Melbourne) West Melbourne (Western Bulldogs/Collingwood) Victorian Team (Hawthorn/St.Kilda/Essendon/Carlton) Geelong 2 conferences, change every year (1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 9th, 11th, 13th, 15th & 2nd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 10th, 12th, 14th, 16th). play everyone from your conference twice and everyone from other conference once = 22 rounds. Foxtel Cup = 32 teams SANFL/WAFL = 16 teams VFL/TFL = 16 teams NSW/ACTFL/QFL/NTFL = 16 teams NAB Cup knockout competition, once you lose play off against another team. State of Origin = 8 teams (Victoria, South Australia, Western Australia, Northern Territory, New South Wales/ACT, Queensland, Tasmania, International) Played 2 weeks after Grand Final over 3 weeks. 2 Divisions, 4 teams each. the best 4 teams all vs each other, the worst 4 teams vs each other and the best team of the 2nd division and the worst team of the 1st division switch each year. International Cup includes Australian-AIS Academy team, then eventually All-Australian team.
Hodge is God
Guest
Richmond to Tassie? Richmond is practically the most supported club in Australia. It'll be North to Tassie. So, this is my prediction for the AFL expansion by 2030: North will have relocated to Tassie Bulldogs and the Dees to have merged A new Northern team (Cairns/Darwin) A third WA team A Newcastle team GWS to have moved to Canberra
RAL1981Adelaide
Guest
What I like to see happen over 15 to 20 years would be a mix of three things. 1st, two new expansion teams, one in New Zealand and maybe one in New Castle 2nd relocate Melbourne teams other city's, here are the following idea's: North Melbourne to Canberra. Western Bulldogs to WA Richmond to Tassie St Kilda to Cains Hawthorn to Darwin 3rd Have two conference's, one will be called Australian Football Union(AFU), the other will be the Australian Football Confederation(AFC). The conference will look like this after the addition of the new teams and the team moved from Melbourne: AFC Conference: Adelaide Sydney Westcoast Brisbane Cains Canberra Geelong Melbourne New Zealand New Castle AFU Conference: Port Adelaide Greater Western Sydney Fremantle Gold Coast Darwin Western Bulldog Tassie Collingwood Carlton Essondon Still have 22 rounds so that would allow each teams to play each other twice but also have two "rivalry rounds" and they would work something like this: Adelaide V Port Adelaide Greater Western Sydney V Sydney Westcoast V Fremantle Gold Coast V Brisbane Cains V Darwin Western Bulldog V Canberra Geelong V New Zealand Collingwood V Melborne Carlton V Essondon New Castle V Gelong
boltonguy
Roar Rookie
I lke it but I dont think that cities like mandurah would be able to compete in sheer numbers of support when you compare it to the market of perth and such. I think that yes it would work but it would have to be a town love affair with the team. and I think a team in Bendigo is much more viable then a team in Albry-Wodonga.
boltonguy
Roar Rookie
No, this is soewhat offensive. It is our game. If they really want a team then they can start up thier own national competition. We need to stop giving them teams in our leagues. The Warriors play Rugby League, one of there favourite sports, so why would there not be enough support for there own national rugby league equivalent, and they shouldn't be allowed to sing there national anthem if one of their teams makes the final as it is not the kiwi national team playing, a few of them are even Australian. I dont mind that they have teams in our leagues like the warriors and the pheniox but this is our sacred sport as to say. Australian based teams must be a priority.
Lachlan
Roar Guru
We should have the best teams in each state, in senior level, compete in a knockout competition. Which should be completely different to the foxtel cup. Consisting of only the best teams, from, for example, in nsw, black diamond. Sydney AFL, etc
Fitzy
Guest
Looing at the population figures and the potential for expansion seems clear, newcastle and canberra (close to what could be considered AFL hartland in nsw) with a team to relocate to tas. CC I know has always had good junior comp as far back as 30 yrs ago, used to play school sides in state knockout, just dont know if the potential reach is enough and wouldn't it cut into Swans followers. I think AFL needs to keep momentum going not as quick as GC and GWS but not as long as 15 - 16 yrs. Should offer 10 - 15 mil for 1st club to relocate to Tas with 2-3 mil extra per season over 5 yrs and special building fund for team to relocate within 5 years(2017). Then new expansion team 2019 and 2021. Don't look at NZ until we do serious work there for at least 10 years, i.e. Pre-season matches, footy clinics and matches for premiership points at least 4 per year and improve local juniors. Most prob 20 yrs away. RL is looking at expansion 2015 with a relocation in 2017 we really take away their publicity, because they move so slowly on anything their next expansion will be 10 yrs after. They will not really expand into new areas anyway as they have stated central QLD and a phenoix like Perth reds. AFL has to lock down NSW, 4 teams is ideal with 4 regions.
Republican
Guest
Canberra's population is already approx 400k. Combine this with the surrounding region much of which is footy heartland, you have around 600K plus on the vine and ripe for the picking.
kiwidave
Guest
4.4 million, most of whom couldn't tell you how many players there are in an AFL team.
josh
Guest
Tasmania will be the next franchise, its inevitable and it will be a state team because thats just logical compared to a hobart fc for example but the 2nd and last to round out a 20 team comp should really be considered in new zealnd, its 6.5 million heaps of expats, loads of cricket ground suitable for upgrades, both goverments would surely get behind it and it really wont take long for a solid support to dominaqte the country and create a us v aussies attitude.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Pete Have there been lots of failures in trying to expand? In 115 seasons, only one club has disappeared completely from the competition, and that was University in 1915, a victim of WWI, althought realistically, a University club was unlikely to ever survive long into the professional era. Fitzroy and the Bears were forced to merge, and that's it.
Pete from adelaide
Guest
Over the years the AFL has had lots of failures in trying to expand the competition. The thing about failure is that, yes it hurts, but you learn. The establishment of Gold Coast and GWS has been very successful in building the Clubs, Stadiums and Player Lists. Of course we all now wait to see if those teams are able to establish themselves over time and become successful. I beleive the AFL would be comfortable in sayng " We now have a template to enable us to establish a team at any location of our choosing". If I was the AFL CEO I would definately be eyeing NZ and the Newcasltle/Central Coast.
Travis
Guest
One option I'm surprised no clubs have even considered is playing games in gippsland, of the Large towns in the Latrobe valley I can see a club playing there getting good attendances & increasing supporter base without having to travel too far.
voodoo people
Guest
In terms of TV rights, sponsorship and related revenue (ie the things that matter to sports administrators), yes.
stabpass
Guest
Townsville and Cairns are about 4 hours apart ??, the AFL would be looking at Cairns, but Townsville is a die hard league town, much in the same mould as Newcastle. A team spread across Darwin and Cairns sounds a bit like to much hard work, and spreading yourself to thin. A NEAFL team from Cairns sounds like a formaility ATM though.
clipper
Guest
good analogy, The Cattery! Do you think they could ever have a 'top end' side that would include Darwin and far north QLD, or would that just be too difficult. If you combined those areas there would be quite a large population, but Darwin or Cairns seperately might be too small at present. At least no one yet has been silly enough to speculate about PNG!
The Cattery
Roar Guru
It's an interesting point, one I've never thought about, that the AFL, and/or clubs and bodies associated with the AFL, run AFL9s competitions - and the money stays within the Australian Football community, as opposed to things like indoor games, where the money goes to entrepreneurs for private profit.
Lachlan
Roar Guru
Cairns and Townsville's populations combined would be close to 350,000. Newcastle's and CentralCoast popluations combined is between 600,000 and 650,000.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
You might be right about Newcastle, but there's plenty of support for aussie rules in Cairns, a game this year got over 10k, and they are scheduling another next season and for the next few seasons. The city is still too small to support a team, but if the population doubles in the next 20 years, you are starting to talk about a population zone not too dissimilar from Geelong's. Also, we have to remember that in 25 years, we have gone from a 12 team VFL to an 18 team AFL, so it's not entirely out of the question that the next 25 years might bring some further change and expansion (albeit, a bit more measured). If, for example, in 25 years we have teams in tassie, Darwin, Canberra, Cairns, and even in Albury-Wodonga and/or Ballarat, the bergers of Newcastle would quite rightly be wondering whether it's time that they too had a team in Australia's premier football competition.