Melbourne Cup 2011: Live updates, results and blog

We’ll have live Melbourne Cup updates throughout the day, including tips, winners and all the results from the action at Flemington. Join us with a preview of all the runners and look at the Cup action – and don’t forget, the 2011 Melbourne Cup will start at 3pm (AEST).

This year’s Cup features more international runners than ever, with only three Australian bred horses in the final field.

View full race placings of Melbourne Cup 2011 here.

International raiders will be looking to claim back to back Cups for the first time ever – with the race the world’s richest 3200m handicap now stopping more than just Australia with horses from France, Germany, the USA, and the UK.

Being the largest international field in history, it is difficult to compare form because many of these runners will be racing in Australia for the first time.

Their form overseas is excellent – hence their arrival – but a lack of running here provide little information regarding their weaknesses and dislikes.

Following a chilly week in Melbourne with scattered showers, the track was rated dead on Derby Day and possible showers will keep the track the same with the possibility of downgrade to slow.

Let’s take a look at each of the runners.

1. Americain
Deservedly favourite entering the race he won last year, the biggest problem will be carrying top weight. Loaded with 3.5kg more than his victory last year, top weight has not won the Melbourne Cup since 1941. Distance is no issue and barrier 15 will provide the same midfield position Gerald Mosse sat him at last year.

Claiming the Mooney Valley Cup in emphatic fashion with top weight has been the only run since arriving back in Australia so nothing has changed in Americain’s preparation. It must be noted though that Americain won over 3000m four times in the year before last years Melbourne Cup victory. He has run 3000m three times this year with sixth his highest place.

2. Jukebox Jury
Backing up a three length (3L) victory in the Group 2 Prix Kergolay to win the Group 1 Irish St Leger two months ago, this Irish import has drawn perfectly from barrier 6. Distance will not be a problem for this 6yo who won at 3000 and 2816m in his last two starts but the biggest concern is whether he will be able to run for the first time in Australia.

St Leger winners usually make the trip over for the Melbourne Cup but only Vintage Crop has been able to run the double. We frequently see Irish horses in this race take the lead early with a quick tempo before burning out around the Flemington bend.

Jukebox Jury won his last two races from the lead and the windy conditions expected will further disrupt this horse that will be racing in Australia for the first time.

3. Dunaden
If there is a horse to jockey for favouritism pre-race, it will be Dunaden. Bolting home in the Geelong Cup with the most impressive of staying performances, the French could quinella this race. Carrying considerably less weight than his Geelong Cup win, Dunaden made a name for himself in Europe at distances winning seven wins beyond 2000m.

Beating home Bendigo Cup winner Tanby and Melbourne Cup second placegetter Bauer in the Geelong Cup, Dunaden possesses the same turn of foot we saw from Americain in last years Geelong and Melbourne Cups. He looses in-form jockey Craig Williams but should still be there at the end.

4. Drunken Sailor
Balloted 25th in the order of entry to just miss out on a run last year, this 7yo has travelled plenty over the past 12 months with runs in Dubai and England to great success. He loves to stay, with the shortest of his wins being 2200m. Running on steadily in the Caulfield Cup to finish seventh, Dwayne Dunn continued improving his position around the bend suggesting there is further improvement with a longer straight on offer.

He holds form against Jukebox Jury at equal weights in England, but Drunken Sailor’s form from his previous Australian campaign suggests he dislikes Australian turf and is unable to reproduce the turn of foot he showcases overseas.

5. Glass Harmonium
Winning the Mackinnon Stakes in emphatic fashion leading from the front, history proves the Mackinnon to be a poor form guide. His dominance in the Mackinnon creates reservations as to whether he still has enough left in the tank after winning with 59kg on board. He drops back 5kg here and will be forced to work early if he is to run from the front as he prefers.

This has been a busy campaign already and it should not surprise if Glass Harmonium runs his race too early by pushing over from barrier 23 and is last past the post.

6. Managhar
Luca Cumani’s leading stayer has not won since 2009 but his performance in the Caulfield Cup turns that statistic into insignificance. Ridden softly by Damien Oliver all the way at Caulfield, this horse relaxes beautifully and does not give up. Having run seventh in this race last year, distance will not be an issue and he looks in better condition this year than last.

He doesn’t necessarily have the turn of foot past Cup winner’s posses but he does not slow down and will fight all the way to the finish. Although lacking acceleration, an early fast tempo, as expected to be bought upon by Jukebox Jury will favor Managhar who can come over the top at the end.

7. Unusual Suspect
The only American import in the field and the oldest runner at 8yo. He has had two terrible runs in Melbourne since running tenth the Cranbourne Cup before producing a powerful run in the Caulfield Cup to run sixth where he looked dead and buried after a mile.

No 8yo has won the Melbourne Cup since 1938 and you would suspect the horses that beat him home in the Caulfield Cup will safely beat him home again.

8. Fox Hunt
Arriving with stablemate Jukebox Jury from England, Fox Hunt is a wet weather specialist and stands to gain the most from a morning downpour. Past European tactics have involved running stablemates together, controlling the pace and forcing wide runners to provide cover. As leaders, Fox Hunt and Jukebox Jury will do this with ease under their regular jockey’s.

Carrying excellent staying form throughout the racing season alongside several other international raiders in the cup, Fox Hunt could be the surprise packet if he gets cover throughout from his stablemate to be amongst the places.

9. Lucas Cranach
Producing the most impressive performance in the Caulfield Cup to come from the back of the field to finish fifth, this German import looks to be at peak fitness. Having gotten his first Australian run out of the way, doubts have been removed as to whether he can reproduce his German staying ability.

He has won four from seven starts over 2400m including one first up win from three attempts. His racing style suits the tempo of past Melbourne Cups and responsiveness to Corey Brown will see him thrive on the long straight. Had the Caulfield Cup been extended in distance, Lucas Cranach would have won. There is an 800m increase on offer here.

10. Mourayan – SCRATCHED
A consistent stayer when raced in Australia, his second placing in the Mackinnon stakes was very casual. He is trained to run 3200m and has form over Niwot, especially at Flemington. Capable of running in all conditions, a wet track will grease the hooves in favor of this Lloyd Williams runner that will appreciate a 5.5kg weight reduction from his impressive Mackinnon Stakes run.

UPDATE: Mourayan has been a late scratching – Racing Victoria vets inspected the galloper this morning and deemed it unfit to run

11. Precedence
Trained by the Cups king, this Zabeel gelding is bred and trained to run specifically for this race. Precedence looked in all sorts with disappointing runs in the Turnbull Stakes, Caulfield Cup, and Mackinnon Stakes placing no higher than ninth.

The only factor going in favour of this horse is his ability to stay the distance. Although assisted with the lightest weight carried in over a year, his preparation gives no reason to believe he will improve with a reduction of weight and is just in the field to give Bart Cummings’ other runner a better chance.

12. Red Cadeaux
Running third in the Irish St Leger, Ed Dunlop has chosen well his first ever runner in the Melbourne Cup. The distance is no concern for this English import but he has never run outside of Europe. In practice gallops at the Weribee quarantine centre, he looked the most impressive of all the imports and will enjoy a damp track hoping to be rated Dead/Slow.

13. Hawk Island
Outclassed in the Caulfield Cup, he has not had another run since. His autumn form has gone missing and at 7 years old, his best looks to be behind him. Having never run well beyond 2400m, there are just too many queries over his staying capability to consider him a serious threat.

14. Illo
The best chance for Cups king Bart Cummings, this German import impressed running third to Americain in the Mooney Valley Cup. Continuing his 2000m form first up in Australia similar to Lucas Cranach suggests the tracks in Australia and Germany are not dissimilar.

Despite being a 6yo stallion, Illo looks undernourished and is the skinniest runner in the field. With a slender frame and Jim Cassidy on board, Illo can run with Americain if they find themselves midfield together. Cassidy won Melbourne Cups in 1983 and 1997. Today is 2011. See a pattern?

15. Lost in the Moment
The first of the Godolphin imports seeking the first Melbourne Cup for The Sheik, Lost in the Moment has been good but not great. Having run behind Modun many times, his form suggests he is more a travelling companion than winning chance.

16. Modun
The better performing Godolphin raider, Modun has placed amongst several respected international stayers. After running forth in the Ebor behind Moyenne Corniche, Modun won the Group 3 September Stakes beating Harris Tweed who ran fifth in this race last year.

It is unclear whether he will handle the Flemington track but if the horses he has placed around all have, he is the best chance of delivering the Sheik his first Melbourne Cup but still an outsider.

17. At First Sight
Running second in the Bendigo Cup behind stablemate Tanby, At First Sight carried top weight to forge to the line from the back of the field. His racing style has been similar in all starts this preparation and a reduction in weight plays favorably.

The Bendigo Cup is as equal a form guide as the Geelong Cup and At First Sight’s last start was near identical to Dunaden’s at Geelong. Lightly raced with only four starts since competing as a Colt, Lloyd Williams has specifically targeted the 2011/12 Melbourne Cups with At First Sight for several years. Overcoming a logjam of traffic will be a tough ask for Steven King, but the width of Flemington should see navy blue stream down the outside to be a serious contender.

18. Moyenne Corniche
Gliding home down the centre of the track in the Herbert Power Stakes, Moyenne Corniche joined the list of import raiders to impress first up in Australia. Falling short by just over a length, he will run more comfortably with the additional distance on offer in the Cup after winning the Ebor over 2800m two starts back.

He will sit off the pace, back of midfield, and will come with the final wave of runners. Only problem is there are horses with better acceleration that will be in the same bunch. If he can stalk Lucas Cranach around the bend, he will be right in the thick of it.

19. Saptapadi
Despite offering little confidence with poor runs in the Herbert Power and Caulfield Cup, the Ellison stable has been steadfast in their naming of Saptipadi as the stable’s best Cup chance. Brian Ellison raised concerns over the riding of Saptipadi in his last starts and has elected Chris Symons to replace Mark Zahra.

Symons, a harder rider than Zahra, will go to the front early from barrier 22 but a win would be completely out of left field.

20. Shamrocker
Priced a long shot, she had terrible form leading into the VRC Oaks last spring to run second over 2500m. Her preparation for the Melbourne Cup has been equally bad but she is a Flemington specialist who thrives on a wet track.

Even with less weight than her Group 1 wins and her excellent staying pedigree, the poor form and the widest barrier (24) rule her out this year as she still looks to be recovering from her arduous program as a filly.

21. The Verminator
Winners of the Metropolitan have generally been legitimate Cup chances but The Verminator’s run in the Mackinnon was a concern for connections. Stepping down in weight under handicap conditions gives him a chance to finish within 10L of the winner.

22. Tullamore
Pulled out of the Lexus the night before to ensure he is as fresh as possible; running second to Americain in the Mooney Valley Cup is a huge bonus. This Savabeel gelding gets a 5kg reduction while Americain carries the same weight and goes in favorite.

With unmatched staying form over the Autumn, he is fully in stride after running third in the Caulfield Cup and at five years old, he will have 3200m in him. If you’re giving Americain a chance, you should give Tullamore one too.

23. Niwot
Lightly raced throughout his seven year career, John Hawkes has taken his time preparing Niwot as a Melbourne Cup runner and dividends were fancifully paid on Derby Day with a striking win from eight lengths back around the bend to win the Lexus.

As the only winner for the day to make a clear beeline for the rails, Niwot continued to excel on the softer ground near the rail. The ground remains soft with drizzle in the lead to Tuesday and a wet track will suit Niwot perfectly and since there has been little change in the weather since Saturday. Expect this lightweight to continue tradition of backing up a Lexus win with a good Cup run.

24. Older Than Time
If there be a horse in the race to make up the numbers, it be Older Than Time. With a terrible performance in the Lexus Stakes, not only can this mare not stay amongst classy horses, she is taking up a starting gate ahead of fan-favourite Bauer. It’s perplexing to think why Gai Waterhouse did not scratch Older Than Time after her performance on Saturday and her name is a reflection on when she will pass the post.

My Top Seven
1. Lucas Cranach
2. Dunaden
3. At First Sight
4. Americain
5. Niwot
6. Fox Hunt
7. Tullamore

Got a hot tip or a question? Join our live blog throughout the day in the lead up to the big race as we look for some winners and enjoy the festivities.

WINNER OF THE MELBOURNE CUP: Dunaden

Placings:
1. Dunaden
2. Red Cadeaux
3. Lucas Cranach

View full race placings of Melbourne Cup 2011 here.