Upon the calling of the name of the 96th selection at the 2011 AFL Draft, Graeme Allen will have dutifully completed his unprecedented and disproportionate part in the annual raid of the nations elite junior footballers.
With the ink still drying on their final high school exams, young tyros will fly in from Perth, the Gold Coast and everywhere in between.
We don’t yet love them, loathe them or even know them. Yet come Thursday, in a transformed auditorium somewhere in the rugby league heartland of Western Sydney, we will.
And then, in the harshest oddity of this increasingly public process, the ‘average’ player will not last to see the opening bounce of the 2015 season.
In 2009, the AFLPA released statistics that revealed the average life span of an AFL footballer to be less than four years. Whilst the emphasis clubs now place on player welfare and professionalism has the Players Association convinced this figure will markedly increase, the reality is inescapable.
Footballers don’t get drafted, play for a decade and retire to the riches and rewards their careers apparently warranted.
To draw a simple conclusion to a decidedly complicated scenario would be to suggest that if, on average, a draftee only remains in the AFL system for a period of 4-5 years then it would be negligent on the part of recruiters to select an 18 year old not physically, or mentally capable of affecting games for a period that outlasts their average ‘lifespan’?
This proposition openly discredits the trusted practices of AFL recruitment. And it is wrong in doing so.
In a competition shaped by equalisation mechanisms, top-end draft picks are priceless commodities designed to be used on elite players who can, and more than likely will play at a competitive level for a period far exceeding the average.
But once the undeniable talents are safely tucked away, what then?
At some point during Thursdays call, recruiters will pause, ponder, converse with their co-conspirators and then ask for additional time so as to attempt to perfect this imperfect art.
They will debate whether Waylon Manson, a freakishly talented West Australian, will amount to anything but an enormous waste of time and energy. Some will question Mitch Griggs’ speed and force themselves to query his place in the modern game.
Invariably, all will be forced to reconcile with the same daunting truth. How can we be sure, confident at least, that these kids will become successful at a mans game? How do we know that the hundreds of thousands of dollars spent on their post-draft years will be justified?
No amount of tests, interviews or dinner dates can predict the future. That much is certain. So why try? Why tediously deliberate over hypotheticals when a logical, and empirically sound alternative exists?
In 2009, and even more so in 2010, clubs were conspicuously willing to accept the fallacy of drafting ’10 year players’ and instead select players who were willing – and most importantly – immediately able. It began in earnest with Michael Barlow (23 years old at the time of drafting) and James Podsiadly (28) and continued with Nick Duigan (27), Paul Puopolo (22), Ian Callinan (28) all debuting in the 2011 season.
For Duigan, a psychologist from Adelaide, it took 10 years before he felt physically and mentally comfortable with himself as a footballer. In return for their diligent and open-minded approach, Carlton will receive four to five years of surety, leadership and maturity. Surely that’s a good deal for a club on the precipice.
Jonathan Patton, Stephen Coniglio and Dom Tyson – all 18 year olds – will be the first three names called by GWS on Thursday. And rightly so. But as recruiters labour to fill their lists – a task made more arduous by GWS’ monopoly of an already shallow talent pool – due consideration must be given to the perils of picking kids.
It is, after all, a mans game. Mistakes are costly.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
It's a grand final mate, the Bombers were smoking hot at the time, one loss for the season, the Dees were lucky to be there - they were always on a hiding to nothing.
Michael Rapson
Guest
well, I hope Sheedy's youth are treated the same way on the field as he treated Melbourne's youth in the 2000 grand final. Other teams may want to look at a replay of that match and note how Sheedy deals with young players in the opposition and then apply the same tactics to his young players at GWS.
Jaceman
Guest
I dont think many 19-20 year olds are ready for the NFL - the sheer brutality means they need highly intense coaching/training at a good college for 4 years - the quality position players sometimes dont get a start till 3 years of pro training ie 25 years of age..
Jaceman
Guest
Does that mean 2GB will have the Saturday morning AFL show again next year - I note the AFL radio rights gave Swans/GWS finals games to 2UE (Fairfax) and miraculously the AFL coverage in the Fairfax Herald improves from that very day (Articles about Buckey and Collingwood??). Perhaps the independent media enquiry could look at this sort of activity...
Australian Rules
Guest
This is the dream long term. Looks absolutely fantastic...how could the public not be exicted by such a great facility? Build it and...
Australian Rules
Guest
Yes and I think those rules are a good thing. My point was that promising highschool athletes still have a few years of development to prove whether they can crack the top leagues. And it's hardly slave labour, or some murky moral issue, as you're implying. I have friends who play in the college system for all kinds of sports...it's an unbelievably charmed life. They learn their craft, have fantastic facilities around them, receive good coaching, have legions of fans...and once they've proven themselves and enter the top leagues, they get millions. I think that's a better system...rather than paying a 19y.o. Tom Scully $1M per year after his 2nd year of AFL. Believe me, American college athletes are suffering under no duress. If they say they are, they just whinging.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Then they changed the rules so they had to wait a year after high school and be 19. Because while its perfectly fine to pay college basketball *coaches* tens of millions, and 18 year old basketballer getting paid is just plain wrong.
TW
Guest
Yep they are trying various methods to get the message out - Cannot say they are not having a go.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Well - I'm pumped after watching the video and listening to Alan Jones - where do I sign up?!
BigAl
Guest
I believe LeBron James went straight from high school to the NBA.
TW
Guest
The Giants have just released this flythrough of the proposed facilities at their Skoda Stadium. The voice over is Alan Jones - Sydney radio shock jock. Also of Rugby Union fame. Link--- http://www.gwsgiants.com.au/experience-skoda-stadium/
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Mmmm a forward line of Patton and Folau. Two gorillas. Mmmmmmm. tasty.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Needless to say, that includes likely number one selection: Jonathon Patton.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
There was an article in the Age today, about the Victorian U12 rep team from 2005. Smashed everyone by more than 10 goals, and 11 of the 22 players are either already on AFL lists or are likely to go as high picks tomorrow night - which is a pretty good hit rate from such a young age group.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Dan J-B, That might be true, but it also means they build a team that is good enough to get to finals, but not win them. And thats why teams will still pick unproven 18 year olds.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Australian Rules, "In the U.S, players invariably progress to pro-sport after 3 years or so of college sport". Well, first of all, thats enforced by NFL and NBA rules, not because its what the teams and players want to do. Remember,young athletes dont deserve to be paid.
Australian Rules
Guest
Clearly, even with all of the scouting data, physiological testing and speculation that the clubs engage in, identifying a player that will become a lasting feature of the club is very difficult to do when they are 17 years old. One of the things that necessitates the lottery of the draft is the fact that there is no college system in Australia. In the U.S, players invariably progress to pro-sport after 3 years or so of college sport (at about 21y.o), meaning they are physically and mentally more mature and have more chance of making the leap to the top grade. Only kids who are freakish physical specimens (like LeBron James) are drafted straight out of highschool at age 18. Australia doesn't have the population, resources or culture of college sports to try and replicate such a system, so it is a moot point. Nonetheless, the college system in America makes for a fascinating 'apprenticeship' for pro-athletes to compete in huge stadiums, with massive followings and broad media coverage before they get to the Big Dance. The Draft lottery is probably as good as we can get.
Dan J-B
Roar Rookie
Sydneys draft strategy reflected, as much as anything, its place within a rugby dominated market. Paul Roos always maintained that Sydney could not afford to be uncompetative and as a result never 'bottomed out'.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Really good article, plenty to mull over there. There are so many variables - at the end of the day, the clubs are all involved in a game of trying to know what you don't know. Some brilliant under-age players will fail to develop; some have very little improvement left in them at age 19; others go through a major improvement spurt at age 22; some will just never have the mental toughness to make it; others have the mental toughness in spades, but can't kick a footy; etc. etc. If that weren't bad enough, you are balancing all that with the order of the picks, who is available and meeting certian needs of the club, such that it becomes a gamble. For instance, you desperately need a 3rd choice ruckman, your first pick is at 15, but the best ruckman remaining in the pool, might last till 33 - do you waste your top pick on the ruckman, or go for the next best available player? (who happens to be 175cm extractor). Tough decisions. But the recruitment staff earn their money as you enter round 3 and beyond. We know from experience, right up to pick 90, there will be smokies here who will become 10 year players - most will not, as the article correctly points out. If in rounds 3, 4 and 5, you can nab 3 blokes who all go on to play 100 games, you have done very, very well. I love the draft.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
This theory has actually been tested by the Sydney Swans. They consistently trade draft picks for mature or semi-mature players, and they have a good, solid list that is capable of getting them to the bottom end of the top eight most years. Regrettably, this doesnt get you a list that is capable of consistently beating the teams like Collingwood, Carlton or St Kildas that bounce up and down the ladder picking boom-or-bust picks.