Will A-League crowds grow any more?

They have played their trump card with Kewell and Emerton in the year before the TV rights are due - timing is everything but you cant do it every year. The NRL has done the same thing with their TV rights - they have maximised the numbers TV watching (blockbusters guaranteed on FTA, NSW/Qld targeted game every friday night, no competing games) before a new TV deal and now they are talking about a full year schedule in the future (until the last few rounds) which means some stinker games on friday nights. TV execs will understand they have maxed out this season (NRL and soccer) and it may not continue. News Ltd papers are rubbishing Lowys assertion that the 2022 WC bid is not over yet.

dinoweb. From 1969 to 1974 I managed a team that used Perry Park as their home ground so I am well versed in how many people the ground was capable of catering for,albeit a lot of double -headers were programmed thus expanding the take in the bars and food stalls which were run by the QSF. When the ground opened the seated area in front of the club held 1800, 2000 if you squeezed hard.At each end of the ground there was a "hill" that could accommodate around 500 seated on the grass. The area opposite the stand was not elevated at any point so did not attract spectators.When Glasgow Rangers came to town a temporary stand was built in this flat area and from memory I think the crowd that day was around 8000. So for Brisbane City to claim they ever had 6200 at an NSL match is definitely "tongue in cheek" I think you misunderstood my analysis taking out MH and GCU. This was only done so that a proper comparison could be done with earlier HAL figures ie 2004-2007 when the league had 8 teams. Your second last paragraph cites some very interesting data, data which I too have been watching and I suspect the NRL are watching too. "Get the right expansion teams". Now there is a simple statement with a thousand debates raging over it. We have a league just now that, like it or not, is totally dominated by one team that has in it's make up nine players with extensive overseas experience. Taking that factor alone where are we going to find 2 or 4 clubs (100 players) who can compete ,not with the rest,but with today's Brisbane Roar. Easier said than done Dinoweb. Enjoyed your discussion. jb

j binnie, yes I am very aware that many of the stats on crowd figures were dodgy, but as you say it really was meant more "tounge in cheek", not that the stats are deliberately skewed by me in any way. The website you mentioned is where I got the numbers from, and they certainly need to be taken with a grain of salt, though even given all of the above I think they do provide a reasonable approximation. I actually used to go to NSL games in at Perry Park in the late 1980's and would turn up late because after about the first 20mins the gate keepers would abandon their post and more often than not you got in for free. I would dispute that Perry Park can not regularly hold 4.7k. Having been there myself many times it doesn't seem like an unrealistic figure to me. I do disagree though that you need to take MH and GCU out of any figures analysis. We have to go with what we've got, and the competing interests aren't really going to make those types of allowances. Personally, what I find most interesting is that in 1983, the NRL reached a low of 6969 patrons per match and 1.2m for the year, but have been able to grow that in the space of 28 years to over 16k and 3.2m. Given that the HAL has about 12.5k to date this year and had 1.4m total patrons last year, I'm very encouraged that there is enough critical mass of supporters for the league to continue to grow and expand in the future to become a genuine main stream football code in Australia. Get the right expansion teams in, there by increasing the total matches per season, and the numbers really would start to become competitve with the NRL.

Dinoweb - Just to back up what I have said above type in National Soccer League and go the site headed The Australian National Soccer League --- Full results and lineups National Soccer League 1977 -2004. It gives you every game played and you will note with just a little more than cynicism that many many crowd figures given end in 000 or 500 or 250 but seldom a realistic figure in thousands hundreds tens and ones.Remember the controls on sales at the gate were not as highly computerised as they are today so this practice could go on unchecked in most cases JB ps You will get a shock when you see some of the figures given compared to what we read about in these columns. Cheers.

Dinoweb - An interesting contribution but I have to point out a few "tongue in cheek" figures in your analysis. Brisbane teams in the NSL had to play their home games at Perry Park from 1977 to 1979 and, having been involved in that ground since it opened in 1967, I doubt if it could hold 4.7k on an "average" weekend so don't know from where you sourced your figures but I think they may have been exaggerated somewhat,not an uncommon practice in those days.When they moved to Richlands & Spencer Park the capacities of those grounds were still well below the figures quoted. Coming back to present times we have an average attendance at HAL games after 8 weeks of 499,118 at 40 games which equals 12,478/game, but it has to be remembered that 8 of the clubs are "carrying" two "expansionist "clubs who have ,or are, struggling to build a fan base. If these 2 clubs total gates were deducted from the total above it shows the 8 "established" clubs have pulled 462,823 to 33 games giving them an average of 14,025. That is the figure you would have to use when comparing any other HAL season with this Hal season to date.Hope this interests you jb.

I think people always underestimated the impact of the WC bid would have on the A-league. Everybody was saying the A-league was all doom and gloom because it was so neglected, not only because of zero spend on marketing, but no time on planning or energy was spent on the league. A lot of non-football people wanted it to fail. This season the league has recontinued it's growth, which I call natural progression. Season 3 was the peak in terms of crowds, because of the Germany WC 2006 which was huge for the game. Those figures couldn't be sustained. But the numbers in season 4, after that massive high, are probably the most realistic numbers to look at. Which is I think is where were at today. Even moving forward, this league should be averaging between 11-14k, anymore is very ambitious, any less would be disastrous. We need to be realistic, were the 3rd/4th biggest league in the country, in a country of 22M, with a ridiculously low media following. News outlets around the country very rarely even mention the league, and if they do it's a 5 second mention at the end of the sports bulletin. A disgrace, and a reminder of the sporting landscape we live in. This is what is holding us back, the media. If we had some A-league on FTA, in any shape or form, and had half decent FTA media and newspaper coverage, Australia-wide (Foxtel dont count, as only 20-25% of the population have access to it) our crowds and our league would grow massively. This will happen over time, but if we could get a FTA station to take a punt on our game, it would explode. Our game gets 10k average crowds (a roundabouts figure, over the 7 years), with only a 25% reach of the Australian population, because our league is stuck on Foxtel. As a comparison the NRL averages around 16-17k per game, while having mass marketing, blanket coverage on all media, with Fox and FTA coverage. With more media and some FTA exposure we could easily better those figures. That would be the goal, but at the moment, we should be happy with where were at this season.

Bearing in mind too that the NSL in 1977 was a brand new competition with all the associated excitement compared to season 7 of the A league. Perhaps a more apt comparison would be between the 1983 season of the NSL compared to the current season of the A league. But your point at the end is too true. Or as Homer Simpson said. "Facts? Facts can be used to prove anything."

Yes, it will grow, and prosper. I am loving it.

Stats can be twisted to mean anything you want. Looking at the A-League in isolation does not represent the true state of the sport. The following are all regular season stats and do not include finals matches. The NSL kicked off in 1977 with 182 games averaging 3.9k people per match for a total of 700k for the season. The current HAL season is averaging 12.5k for 40 games and at that rate will hit about 1,684k for the regular season. In 1977 Adelaide had 2 teams with a combined average of 13k attendance, Brisbane 2 with 9.4k, Melbourne 4 with 15.3k and Sydney 5 with 14.5k. Extra teams (and spectators) in the HAL have come from Perth, Newcastle, Central Coast, Gold Coast, and Wellington while Canberra has dropped out. Total support in Adelaide and Sydney then has declined in the past 34 years, Brisbane increased marginally, and Melbourne more than doubled. Given the general increas in population in that time, I would have expected better results. Just in contrast, the NRL has gone from average crowds of 9k in 1977 with 1.2m in attendance at 132 games, to 16.3k average in 192 games and 3.1m total attendance. Average attendance for Football then is up 320% while RL is only up 180%. Total attendance has increased 240% and 260% respectively The NRL in 1977 was of course a purely Sydney based competition, so given that they now include Brisbane, Melbourne, and Auckland as well as Townsville, Gold Coast, Newcastle, and Canberra, their increase in total attendance is far less impressive than that of Soccer. So what does it all mean? Stuffed if I know. Pick a stat or comparison that proves your point and go for it. The stat I like most is that Marconi were the biggest Sydney club with just on 4k attendance, yet people want to bring the Sydney NSL clubs back into the competition, and think they will be more successfull than SFC! Go figure.

In addition, to see more teams playing more games against European/South American/Asian clubs would be fantastic. We have no way to gauge where our A-league stands on a global stage as a competition if we aren't competing against other clubs outside our little sphere. This would increase our global reputation, especially if our teams perform well and will increase the likelihood of bringing over some more quality players. We annually compete against some Asian teams in the ACL, but most of the previous seasons the teams representing our league are not the form teams. Hopefully the Roar can remedy this this season. I, as a Brisbane Roar fan, would rather see the Roar focus all their energy on winning the ACL trophy than trying to compete for the A-league title. The lift in reputation for Australian football would be extremely helpful.

Maybe crowds will dip in medium term, but if they are already up, as long as they don't drop back below the starting point it's all good. Most people go to a game to watch the home team play, unless travelling to support their team. Attendance at matches is automatic for some such as hard core fans, while for other fans it can be dependent on results/form, weather, other events, work commitments, cost - these factors fluctuate, sometimes even members aren't able to attend every game. I would think that generally, if you're a member you're more likely to attend games than if you're a non-member - so this is an important part of boosting crowds. Would be interesting to see figures for crowds per capita, ie crowd as % of resident population, the more people living in a city than more scope that city has for higher crowds even if you consider that some of that population simply have no interest in attending matches at all. Sydney should have higher crowds given their population - part of their problem is competition with League, there's a perception for some people that there's not room for both - they support their team from whatever sport by going to games & that's it. Now that the A-League is starting after NRL is over (assuming this will be the case again in future seasons), how to get NRL fans (some with very limited knowledge or interest in soccer/football) to be willing to go to A-League matches is a key area - advertising is key. I think there could be more advertising, on FTA TV for example for A-league in general and games. For Melbourne, it's AFL vs Soccer/Football, though Melbourne already has large crowds (Victory at least) - I think their high membership base is a key factor for this - I was in Melbourne when the two Melbourne teams played each other earlier this season, I'm a Newcastle fan but thought it'd be good to see the Melbourne derby while I happened to be there, I was surprised at the cost of a GA ticket for non-members, around $27 & thought no wonder they get such big crowds, it's far cheaper to be a member and once you're a member you're more likely to go to the games. Awareness is an issue, I've received many comments from people, who've seen me wearing supporter gear, saying they didn't know there was a game on, with the impression that had they known they would've went. End rant

It is my opinion that should the standard of play, refereeing and general administration increase to a level that can compare to our other main sports then the crowds will flock. If the other teams could lift their play to the level of Brisbane Roar and compete year-in year-out in the Asian Champions League then attendance figures would increase. People want to pay for quality. When good teams play, crowds turn up and bad teams play to empty stadiums.

Could the January transfer window provide the opportunity to bring in a big name player on a guest stint to create some buzz about the game? Long-term, the TV deal must include some component of Free-to-Air games. I'm not saying all games, but one or two. This is the only way to life the profile of the game in the long-run.

Its a simple equation lets not make it complicated. Crowds are directly related to on field performance & reasonable ticket prices. Without going over the whole Roar story again I have seen a clear example being a fan of the club & watching 95% of home matches from day one. You cant serve fans crap & expect them to pay through the nose. In this country(& many others around the world due to extensive TV coverage)we've been served the best of the best. We are therefore governed by a world view of our sport & the size of the countries population. Given that its taken Japan 16 years or so to get back to the origonal average 19,000 of the first season I think we will do well to get above season ones average(about 11000 from memory) in season 7. Personally given the above factors if this league can consistently average from 13-15000 in the future this will be a realistic figure given its long term position on the world football table. Whilst more publicity is welcome it is not a panacea,standard of football & entertainment value is the holy grail that keeps fans coming back. If you dont believe that then ask the question did we have more publicity in season 3. If there was I didnt see it,yet the A-league averaged 14,700 & my club the Roar averaged close to 17,000. So then enough publicity for the comp to get to these levels. In fact the reverse was true the comp wasnt up to the publicity & you saw the decline into season 6 even though football was actually improving.

I have read there are numerous types of sports followers from the Hard core rusted on code warrior to the very casual ... O if everyone is going and everyone will be there.... and all those levels in between ... I read somewhere I think there are six levels of supporter.. Football like Union relies very much on its hard core rusted on.... the AFL & NRL also have their hard core ... but they get many more of the casual watchers and the chance to turn the casual watcher into a hard core.... This is something neither baseball or basketball have in enough numbers to maintain or build from... Much of this has to do with general media coverage ... outside Australia look for an AFL article ... or for AFL coverage... It is a real chicken and egg .... without A there is no B ... but if you are B .... how can you get the A to start.. TC is spot on when he talks about having to continue to re build the base .. and the more casual the watcher the easier they wonder away... the traditional bandwagon fan... [see Sydney crowds] ... Back to our chicken and egg... Football if it is too make the next big step needs more media space ... crowds are very important in terms of revenue at the gate and merchandise sales... they also increase viewing patterns... The pages of free media space given to say Football in Europe, South America, Africa, the Middle East, many parts of Asia... also ensure other sports will struggle to get anything other than nitch status... To grow Football needs extra media space... the changing digital world is making this process easier ... however the next media deal is essential ... Football needs to make a major Australian media player push and support football.. In summary the crowds can improve but major improvement and the taking the next step to have the A-League considered a major product of its own needs a big hitter media backer... did I hear 10....

You'd hope that the people who went for the record game would have seen enough in the 4-0 win to come back. Then again you also would have thought the same thing about the 50K+ who went to the GF

It should be all about slow, sustainable growth. Anytime the average crowd for a sports league jumps considerably it's usually because of a novelty/sideshow and its effect wears off very quickly. That's not always a bad thing as some people will stick around once the novelty fades but a drop will happen in the middle of the season (most sporting competitions for any sport face smaller crowds mid-season anyway.) The A-League has followed a similar path to the MLS so far. It started OK, then had a big jump for season 2-3 before the novelty wore off ds dropped but after 5-6 seasons they started to slowly rise. Hopefully the A-League can continue to follow the trend.

Hopefully you're right, but how do we know those people who cam to see 'the record broken' will be back to watch 'the roar'?

I agree Cattery, its hard to maintain that level of support and requires dedication and hard work EVERY season. An example is with the Roar memberships this year, while we did more than double the previous years memberships its going to take an even bigger effort to increase this figure next season, and so on for future seasons. Same goes for the FFA and its marketing of future seasons. At the very least, we cannot see the FFA drop the ball again such as they did when concentrating on the world cup. Lets hope they don't lose sight of the A-league with the upcoming Asian Cup on home soil.

The hype of the Roar dying down? We have seen an increase in Roar home crowds since the season has gone on!