Why the Black Caps could beat Australia

For 20 years, Australian cricket fans have greeted each summer with enthusiasm. This was born from the knowledge that, like Mark Cosgrove at the airport doughnut store, the national team would devour anything put in front of them.

The 2011-12 Australian international summer of cricket (as Channel 9 would put it) officially kicks off today, with the first Test between Australia and New Zealand in Brisbane.

For the first time in a generation the summer begins with no one really being sure how the Australian team will perform.

In case anyone needs reminding, last summer England visited these shores and used the Australian cricket team to wipe several unsanitary floors.

It was smelly, it was icky, but it must be said that before that series most home fans genuinely believed Australia would defeat England.

Although those thoughts appear optimistic in hindsight, the optimism was based on sound assumption. Not least of which was the fact that England hadn’t won a series in Australia since 1987.

Also, unlike 2005, Australia were unlucky to lose the 2009 Ashes in England. Considering they had bounced back so well in the last Ashes on Australian soil – a monumental 5-0 whitewash just 18 months removed from the classic 2005 series – the home conditions were anticipated to swing the series in Australia’s favour once more.

In the end, just like Australia’s bowling, the swing happened in Australia’s favour in Perth but nowhere else.

The start to this summer feels different. There is still belief that Australia will win, but it’s the kind of baseless optimism idiots like me have when going to see an action movie sequel even though the first film was riddled with plot holes and Jason Statham.

There is a new coach in Mickey Arthur, the experienced players are mostly out of form, others are still finding their feet at the highest level, and there could be as many as four debutants.

Definitively predicting how anyone will perform is like predicting how Kanye West will behave at an awards ceremony.

Mitigating this concern is the fact that New Zealand have not won a Test in Australia since 1985, never mind a series, and have won just four of their past 28 Tests against all opposition.

More worrying for the Black Caps is that Australia have a lot of potential talent. In fact, there is enough potential talent in most state teams to fill two and a half sides to the level of the New Zealand cricket team.

So it’s lucky that the Black Caps will be facing a state-level quality bowling attack.

Like every other cricket/action movie-loving idiot out there, I believe Australia will beat New Zealand. However, potential alone doesn’t determine sporting contests, and the Black Caps beating the Australia is certainly possible.

With that in mind, there are several reasons why New Zealand could beat Australia in their two-Test ‘series’ (and set up a loooooooong summer of Aussie cricket bashing).

First, New Zealand are prepared. To use a footy analogy, this is New Zealand’s grand final. For Australia, this is more like round eight against the second-bottom side when you have a few niggling injuries.

Both sides have prepared accordingly. New Zealand meticulously planning under respected coach John Wright, and Australia only announcing their new coach a week before the match.

Second, Australia are vulnerable. Despite solid performances for one and a half Tests against South Africa, injuries mean up to four debutants could receive their baggy green today.

It’s almost like the dark days of World Series Cricket again, and in case anyone needs a history lesson, that didn’t work out too well for the board-endorsed national side back then.

Third, New Zealand possesses explosive batsmen. Any one of Jesse Ryder, Brendon McCullum, or Ross Taylor can take the game by the scruff of the neck. If one of them gets going, a match can quickly turn in New Zealand’s favour.

It also must be said after a rough start to his career off the field, Ryder appears to be getting his act together. This means that the odds for him being involved in an off-field alcohol-related incident while on tour are now 2-1 rather than evens.

Fourth, Daniel Vettori. Pure and simple.

Vettori’s left-arm orthodox spin isn’t the type of bowling that is going to mow through a side’s batting order like Muttiah Muralitharan on a uncovered pitch, but he is the best spinner in this series.

That might not be saying much but Vettori bowls with precision and guile. Free from captaincy duties he can concentrate on his bowling and I expect him to thrive.

Is it possible that a skinny blonde nerd might be the difference between the two sides? It’s as good a guess as any.