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Who will rise in AFL's season 2012?

1st February, 2012
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Expert
1st February, 2012
19
1651 Reads

Since the advent of 16 teams in the AFL in 1995, every year bar two has seen a team rise from outside the eight to the top four. This year, who is it likely to be?

With five new coaches at the helm this season (not including Kevin Sheedy at GWS), it is worth noting that on eight occasions during the above period, such a rise has occurred in a coach’s first full season in charge.

The two instances of no extreme change in the top four occurred in 2009-10, before last year’s bolt from the blue by West Coast, which only John Worsfold and his Eagles might claim they saw coming. Even they might be bluffing.

In an era where teams seem to be either climbing through the premiership window and ‘contending’, or getting out the tools and ‘rebuilding’, we are in a period of increased stability at the top of the table.

With sixteen top-four spots available in the last four years, fifteen have been occupied by just five teams – Geelong, Collingwood, St Kilda, the Western Bulldogs and Hawthorn.

Considering the era of stability as described above, I believe that this year will see the ladder broken into three distinct groups similar to last season – the haves, the have-nots, and the in-betweeners.

The first group will contain last year’s top five: Collingwood, Hawthorn, Carlton, Geelong, and West Coast, who for various reasons I expect to at least maintain their status, or only slightly diminish their returns.

The second group consists of those in the lower reaches who have little reason to expect a significant rise: GWS, Port Adelaide, and Gold Coast as the true battlers, and the Western Bulldogs and Brisbane as slightly better sides, but not by much.

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So this leaves us with the group that I am most interested in from a season 2012 perspective – St Kilda, Sydney, Fremantle, Essendon, North Melbourne, Richmond, Melbourne, and Adelaide. I don’t believe any of these teams are premiership contenders, but supporters of these clubs are entitled to think that if everything goes right they could finish top six.

Similarly, if things go wrong, a position in the bottom half dozen wouldn’t be out of the question.

Considering that the vast gap in quality between the top and middle tier is the same as between the middle and bottom, I believe that the draw is the critical element in analysing where improvement in positions is going to come from.

It’s all about avoiding a return meeting with the powerful, premiership-driven predators up the top, feasting upon a double helping of plump, ripe-for-the-picking carcasses down the bottom, and having as few interstate trips as possible to meet those on the same level of the food chain.

Based on the above conclusion, I believe the two teams we should expect to see significantly rise are Adelaide (up seven spots to seventh), and North Melbourne (three spots to sixth).

The Crows get to meet the three lowest-ranked teams twice each, and with the exception of Geelong, play the other four predators only once apiece.

First time coach (another bonus) Brenton Sanderson has a good crop of rising youngsters with which to work, all of whom can be expected to find a new level if they remain injury free. Andy Otten, Daniel Talia, David Mackay, and the Brodies Smith and Martin all have the capacity to be above average footballers and can be expected to be get their chance to stiffen and deepen the defence and midfield.

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Rory Sloane should continue to improve and seems to have a big-game temperament, Kurt Tippett is overdue to put it all together, while the joker in the pack is of course Taylor Walker, who should finally be unleashed to fulfil the enormous talent at his disposal.

If the exciting key forward is the joker, then the ace in the hole is Patrick Dangerfield. Seemingly possessing all the tools for greatness, a return of 17 touches a match and kicking 23 goals after playing the full 22 games is quite simply not enough from his fourth year in the system.

Consider Richmond’s similarly built mid-forward Dustin Martin, who averaged 22 disposals and snared 33 goals in only his second year – this is a player whose achievements Dangerfield should be looking to match and then exceed.

While I don’t expect North’s rise to be as dramatic, it will be no less significant if they can come from outside of the eight to secure a home final. They play the five stragglers in the first nine rounds to build momentum, and I fully expect them to be 7-5 after the final bye round, which is round 13.

Only playing the top five once each this year is a huge boon, and while the loss of best and fairest winner Daniel Wells in the early part of the season will be felt, he should be running into peak fitness during North’s tougher second half of the season, and will be a welcome addition to a growing midfield.

The Kangaroos have three important elite players in Andrew Swallow, Todd Goldstein and Drew Petrie that the Crows don’t, as well as an even bunch of emerging midfielders, led by the hard-headed Jack Ziebell and complemented by Leigh Adams, Keiran Harper and Sam Wright, who can importantly average a goal a game when pushing forward.

Is it crazy to be predicting finalists and ladder positions two weeks before we even see a ball kicked in anger in the pre-season competition? Of course it is, but we love our football, and that’s where the fun lies!

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Later in the week my AFL preview will be Who Will Fall. And next week, the all-important question of Who Will Win.

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