With the 2012 rugby league season nearly upon us, it’s time once again to channel my inner Nostradamus and announce five fearless predictions.
Coming off a steady if unspectacular two out of five correct predictions last season, I’m hopeful of improving the strike rate in 2012.
Betting slip, please.
One: New Zealand Warriors won’t make the finals.
This prediction isn’t as stupid as it sounds, and is based on a little bit of research and history.
In 2009, the Parramatta Eels went on a fairytale run at the backend of the season, and made it all the way to the grand final. The following year, in 2010, the Sydney Roosters had a similar Cinderella run before it came to an abrupt end at the hands of the St George Illawarra Dragons.
In each of the following years, both teams struggled mightily and failed to make the finals.
The problem with over-achieving is that the high expectations it sets for the future can be unrealistically high. And I fear that may be the case with last year’s grand finalists.
The Warriors certainly have a lot of talent, led by the exciting Shaun Johnson, but I have a feeling that they may just come crashing back to earth in 2012. With a thud.
Two: Todd Carney will have a trouble-free season.
Of all the predictions I’ve made, this would easily be the one with the longest odds.
The NRL’s perennial bad boy has as a rap sheet as long as the Nullarbor, and there are many people not just expecting him to mess up again, but hoping for it.
Carney is a wonderful football talent, and he’s not a bad kid. But some things just don’t mix. Pitbull and hearing is one example. Carney and alcohol is another. Some people just don’t seem to be able to handle booze and Carney certainly falls into that category.
From reports, he’s not completely off the booze, but he has kept out of trouble so far at his new club. And if the Sharks’ trial game against Manly is any indication, Carney is set to return to his 2010 form.
Despite being told ‘this is your last chance’ about 250 times, it may have finally sunk in for Carney, and I expect a big season from him. It’s no coincidence whatsoever that I also expect a trouble-free season from him.
Three: North Queensland Cowboys will make the grand final.
Should they be able to overcome a few injury issues, the Cowboys will give the 2012 premiership a real shake.
Led by a rejuvenated Johnathan Thurston, the go-forward of Matt Scott, and the brilliance of Matt Bowen, the North Queensland outfit returned to finals football last year. And I believe they can go even further this season.
While in the past they have relied too heavily on one or two individuals, the Cowboys have quietly put together a squad that has a lot of depth.
Tariq Sims, Aston Sims and Dallas Johnson add plenty of starch to the forward pack, supporting Scott. The recruitment of Robert Lui and the return from injury of Brent Tate will add to the team’s firepower and options.
Their defence can still be weak at times, but if they can shore up that element of their game, and stay injury free, I predict they’ll still be playing on October the first.
Four: Kurt Gidley will win the Dally M.
While the signings of super coach Wayne Bennett and ‘tag-along’ fullback Darius Boyd have prompted most of the headlines regarding the Newcastle Knights, it’s easy to forget that the club already had a solid playing squad before those two arrived.
Throw in the return of favourite son and former captain Danny Buderus, along with the signings of representative prop Kade Snowden and the enigmatic centre Timana Tahu, and big things are expected from the Novocastrians in 2012.
Gidley, after many seasons of paying the price for his own versatility, is confirmed as the five-eight and will partner Jarrod Mullen in the halves, in what might be the New South Wales pairing come Origin time.
Gidley is excited to start the season knowing exactly where he’ll be playing, and a quick look at the recent winners of the Dally M indicates that players who play in a winning side, and have their hands on the ball a lot, usually poll well. As such, you can expect Gidley to be right among the leaders come Dally M time.
Five: Penrith Panthers will win the wooden spoon.
Love him or hate him, you have to give credit to Phil Gould for one thing: he knows his rugby league. One of the shrewdest and most intelligent minds in the game, ‘Gus’ will eventually turn the Panthers into a force to be reckoned with in the NRL.
However, it won’t be this year.
Despite the credentials of Gould and those of his protégé Ivan Clearly, the Panthers simply don’t have the cattle to compete with the rest of the NRL.
While the backline contains many exciting players, including Michael Jennings, Sandor Earl, Michael Gordon and Lachlan Coote, there remain many questions marks over the consistency, health and attitude of the group.
Halves Travis Burns and Luke Walsh are solid first graders, but neither is a top-class half.
Up front, the loss of Petero Civoniceva will be badly felt. And while the inspirational Luke Lewis remains, the overall roster simply lacks the class and experience of every other in the competition.
I think it will be a long year for the men from the foot of the mountains.
You can follow Ryan on Twitter @RyanOak
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
'Compete' and 'beat' are two totally different things. Queensland outclass NSW in almost every position. I certainly know who I'd prefer as halves combination between Hornby/Soward and Thurston/Cronk. Cam Smith, Inglis, Slater, Scott, Thaiday, Boyd, and the list goes on. Does NSW have talent? Yes. But Queensland has more. It's that simple.
Charles
Guest
I disagree on that Ryan! NSW do have the players and the talent to compete with QLD! It is a matter of choosing the right players and sticking with them. When you have a coach making silly choices such as choosing Dugan over Hayne for fullback, it is any wonder why we do not so well! No one should be an automatic choice but if in form those with the experinece, should be heavily favoured. NSW have been choosing the potential players for far too long and the experiment has failed. Players like Hindmarsh should be heavily considered, even if he goes in the front row, if we do not have enough players up front Hornby is one of most under estimated players in the game, he is very reliable, especially under pressure He will make Soward's game that much better!
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Thank you for the kind words! At this time of year, every NSW Origin spot is pretty much up for grabs. Whilst Soward handled himself well in Origin in 2011, he's far from an automatic selection, especially considering the way he tapered off toward the end of last season. I'm not sure if I would call Stuart's coaching woeful. Yes, he hyped up the players, but only because he had to find an advantage that had nothing to do with talent - because on talent only, NSW aren't worthy of being on the same field as Queensland.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Brave eclipz! Very brave!
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Mark, I'll definitely throw in the occasional rant and rave for 2012. I can't help myself! Yes, the Raiders prediction was horrible, in hindsight.
Charles
Guest
Love your analysis of Rugby League in general Ryan, you have good look on the game! However, I must disagree on your comment about Ricky Stuart, who in my opinion has been woeful, as a coach for NSW He makes many mistakes in selection of players, poor tactics and puts in too much hype, leaving players flat to play the game! In regards to the competition this year I like the look of St George in personal, but not sure of the coach's ability to get the best out of them. If he can get the two halves, in Soward and Hornby to run riot, they will be hard to beat! Overall, I always respect your views! PS. If the two halves Soward & Hornby play well this year, they should be in for NSW Origin! They need to run to the line a lot more more though!
eclipz
Guest
The Storm will make the top 5 - even with all their new recruits. Just remember I said it, ok.
Mark Young
Roar Guru
Ryan I want you to commit to a lot more Rants and Raves this year! I really got into them 2011 BTW how much of a genius does your 2011 article make you look when the first thing you read is "Roosters will not make the finals"!! (And then you see your prediction that the Raiders would be in the GF) But it is important to be bold.. That is why my prediction is that Wayne Bennett will not be the coach of the Knights by the Grand Final. Look at the chaos Palmer is inflicting on GC United, now amp that up by three for what Tinkler is going to do to the Knights. Wayne won't stick around for that sort of hassle.
B.A Sports
You're right "Dud" was harsh. I think i was just feeling to lazy to think of a more appropriate word to describe him. I don't think we have had any coaches yet who have shown that success in the Super League will translate into success in the NRL, so I really don't read much into his success in the UK. He did have a good result in the Tri-nations back in 07 or when ever it was but i think outside tha tournament his win-loss was about 3-9. So not great. And the fact that he has been snooping around for an NRL job for about 5 or 6 yeards and no one has been interested, make me think that he will struggle to get the best out of a team over 8 months of a year. But that said, I think the Warriors have enough talent to overcome a decline in leadership and direction they will be getting.
Davo
Guest
@Ryan Occonel I couldnt agree with you more on everything you said. Although I honeslty believe that JT will win the DM this year if not injured. Todd Carney will be in trouble again. But Most I agree with :)
Queensland's game is rugby league
Guest
I can see the Cowboys winning it this year, but it all depends on the fitness and form of Thurston, Bowen, Payne, Scott, Tate and Fai Fai Loa. Bowen scored a wonderful try in the All-Stars game.Whoever said he's showing his age doesn't know what they're talking about. Thurston is still the best ball-player in the world. He has good options in the second row and centres to work with. Just a matter of keeping them on the field. Cowboys fell away in 2011 after THurston's injury in SOO 3. Were all over the Sea Eagles until Manly used foul tactics around the play-the-ball to slow the game down and took out Corey Paterson with an illegal tackle. Cowboys lost some one else to an injury around the point that Manly started dominating the ruck, but I cannot remember who it was. I'm convinced the referee allowed Manly to slow down the play-the-ball during the second half. Cowboys were dudded during the Souths game by a one-sided ref too. That hurt their finals campaign.
Aidan
Roar Pro
Robert Lui was recruited? Well done to the NQ back office. Other than that most of your predictions have merit..... Except for Gidley winning the Dally M that has about as much chance as the sharks winning the premiership.
Ryan O'Connell
Expert
Jason, I was actually going to throw in a prediction about the State of Origin series, but for mine, it's pretty straight forward. I simply can't see Queensland losing. Whilst Ricky Stuart did a fantastic job with the Blues last year, and had them super competitive, the simply fact is that the Maroons are more talented, right across the park. If both teams play to their full potential, Queensland wins. I think it's that simple. Now NSW might ambush/surprise them for one game, but in a three match series, the better side normally wins. Especially when that 'better' side is Queensland, who never take State of Origin for granted and are therefore rarely, if ever, complacent - which is a lesser sides only hope. Maroons to make it 7 in a row. And yes, I'm a passionate New South Welshmen, so that hurts.
Jason Cave
Guest
Ryan, what's your thoughts re this year's State of Origin series-will this, finally, be NSW's year after being the bridemaids to Queensland for 6 years; or will the Maroons make it series win no.7?
Knight4life
Guest
1. I think warriors will finish about 6th 2. Agreed I think he will have a great year 3. Cowboys in for a massive year, great pack and thurston is magic! Not sure about GF but up there for sure 4. I hope you get this one right go Gids! 5. Titans will run stone motherless last unless Greg bird plays 5/8 he's there only hope! My tip: Melbourne still the team to beat, you could put dame Edna outside slater, cronk and smith and they would still win! -- Comment left via The Roar's iPhone app. Download The Roar's iPhone App in the App Store here.
apaway
Guest
For the Titans sake, I hope not!
Maroon Blood
Guest
Does this site have an annual "No S**t Sherlock" award?? If so, I nominate Damo as an early front runner for the award for his Broncos comment. Should have been an investigative journalist I reckon ;-)
Go warriors
Guest
B.A Sports how can you call the warriors new coach a dud. I think you are being a bit harsh there. Brian Mclennan in 3 years took Leeds to 3 finals winning 2 of them. He has coached the Kiwis to winning the tri nations in his first year beating Australia twice in the one year. Something which has not being done for a very long time. He deserves his chance.
Luke
Guest
I think you're onto something there...
rl
Guest
Pretty good predictions - perhaps throw in "Clive Palmer tries to buy the Titans"?