Most of the time when rugby league experts try to guess each team’s ladder position at the beginning of the year they end up looking like amateurs. Given my amateur footy status I am happy to have a crack.
I have tried to hide my bias in regards my club and the clubs I hate (see if you can guess which ones are which).
Given the closeness of the competition year after year, trying to predict the ladder is foolishly optimistic. It is probably the same foolish optimism some clubs have when they say they’re genuine competition contenders at the start of the year.
Anyway, here goes:
1. Storm
The ‘big three’ of Smith, Slater and Cronk still make up the spine of the Storm. Combined with the return of Ryan Hoffman and Craig Bellamy’s apparent ability to turn an OK forward pack into metre gaining and tackling machines, I’d think another strong year is on the way for the Storm.
2. Tigers
If Benji is at his dancing best, leading the Tigers around the park along with Robbie Farah, I’d suspect another good year for them too. They’ve picked up a very good forward in Adam Blair, and held on to Tim Moltzen to add to their good mix of speed, size, experience and skill.
3. Bulldogs
I’m not exactly sure what it is that makes me think the Bulldogs will have a bumper year, but I’m tipping a big one for the Dogs. Maybe it is the major coup of signing Des Hasler.
I think his direction could get them sparking, especially if Trent Hodkinson fires underneath him again. Maybe it’s because they’ve recently moved into their fantastic new HQ and training facilities back to their spiritual home at Belmore. Maybe it is the Ben Barba factor, which surely can’t hurt their chances.
4. Broncos
I dare say everyone will be writing the Broncos off with no Locky but they still have a very strong looking outfit. A lot probably does depend on Peter Wallace and how well he can lead them around the park.
However they have negated some of the loss of experience with the resigning of Petero Civoniceva. Add to that other damaging forwards like Sam Thaiday, Ben Hannant and young gun Matt Gillett.
Then throw into the cocktail some very dangerous backs like Gerard Beale, Dane Gagai, Josh Hoffman, Justin Hodges and Jharal Yow Yeh and garnish it with a team that appears to respond really well to their coach and surely they’ll win more games than lose.
5. Knights
Can Wayne do it again? Everyone really thought winning a premiership with the Dragons was the icing on the cake to his already stellar coaching career, but can the man put some more icing on that cake with the Knights?
He has ‘trimmed the fat’ off their roster so to speak and brought in (with the help of a certain billionaire) the likes of perennial tag-along Darius Boyd, Kade Snowden and favourite son Danny Buderus. Everything suggests the Knights should have a good year.
6. Sea Eagles
We’re into the 15th season of the NRL, and no team has won back-to-back premierships and I can’t see Manly becoming the first to do so. It seems to be such a tough ask in such a tight competition. Losing Des Hasler is the obvious big loss, but they’ve also lost a little depth in the outside backs with William Hopate leaving and the ever reliable Michael Robertson off to the UK.
The Sea Eagles obviously still have a lot of talent, speed, experience, size and power all across the park with the Stewart brothers, Matt Ballin, Anthony Watmough, Jamie Lyon and Darcy Lussick. A lot rides on whether young gun Daly Cherry-Evans can avoid the dreaded second year syndrome and form a 2011 style combination with good mate Kieran Foran.
7. Cowboys
The Cowboys were right in contention for a top-four spot in the middle of last year but failed to come home with a wet sail, winning only three of their last 10 games. The late season fadeout was largely to do with the knee injury to Johnathan Thurston.
For the Cowboys, everything hinges on Thurston’s form and availability. But that’s nothing new for the North Queenslanders.
8. Raiders
Regularly named as wooden spoon favourites, last year they almost picked up the spoon when punters thought they could possibly push for the top four. Canberra Stadium on a cold winter’s night is often a dreaded road trip and now with the pressure off and barring injury they could sneak into the eight again. This depends on whether their top guns Dugan, Campese and Shillington have a good year. Shaun Berrigan is also a handy buy for the Green Machine.
9. Rabbitohs
I hear nothing but wraps on Michael Maguire but I can’t see him really turning the Bunnies into a powerhouse in 2012. Mind you in 2011 they were dealt some cruel blows with major injuries to key forwards early in the year. However I wouldn’t be surprised if they scraped into the top eight.
10. Titans
Winning the dreaded spoon for the first time after two good years, the Titans have tried to recruit big with the additions of Jamal Idris, Nate Myles and Phil Graham. With Luke Bailey, Greg Bird and Scott Prince still hanging around the Titans will be on the resurgence and I wouldn’t be too surprised if they snuck in the eight too – but I have them just missing out.
11. Dragons
Wayne Bennett the saviour is gone, and it’s time to see what the post Bennett Dragons are made of. I’d be surprised if they can have yet another strong year, being competitive for long periods of time is very tough in the NRL and with a brand new coach I think the Dragons may suffer from a bit of inconsistency. There is, however, still plenty of class players around and only time will tell.
12.Warriors
Recent history has told us that clubs who make fairytale runs to the grand final struggle the following year. Parramatta struggled in 2010 and the Roosters didn’t set the world alight last year. Losing Ivan Clearly will do more harm than good despite Brian McLennan’s impressive Super League record. However, with the majority of their squad looking fairly similar to 2011, I could be very wrong.
13. Roosters
I can’t see a lot changing for the Roosters in 2012. Braith Anasta will enjoy moving back to his preferred spot, but they’re going to have to find someone to make up for the work that Nate Myles got through in attack and defence. If my predictions are correct and the tri-colours do struggle, I’d say Brian Smith might be on the unemployment roster before 2013 rolls around.
14. Eels
Teams rarely finish in the same position they finished in the season before, but part of me can’t see much changing for the Eels in 2012. However another part of me can’t see how the Sandow-Hayne combination could go. If it works there could be a new driver of the ‘Hayne Train’. But I have played it safe and stuck them where they came last year, and if so I’d think Stephen Kearney could be under big pressure.
15. Sharks
I can’t see Shane Flanagan bringing the Sharks their first premiership in 2012 despite Paul Gallen tackling anything that moves not wearing a sky-blue jersey along with taking hit ups like a bull.
It’s almost as if I should be predicting how Todd Carney will go in 2012.Will Paul Gallen teach him how to curb his wild ways? We saw him play out of his skin at the Roosters when everyone thought it was his last chance after a long series of misdemeanours at the Raiders. Now, he has another last chance after another series of misdemeanours and the rugby league world is wondering how many last chances should one bloke get?
Whether he fires for the Sharks or has a series of benders and ends up in a gutter while Danny Weidler pokes him with a stick and asks him to comment on his current health status – your guess is as good as mine. Nevertheless, it will surely be entertaining and have the journos talking all year.
16. Panthers
2011 wasn’t a great year for the Panthers and barring Ivan Cleary doing something brilliant with his new troops I think they’re a big chance of finishing on the bottom for what would be the second time in five years. There will be a great weight on the shoulders of Luke Lewis with the departure of Petero Civoniceva.
They also lack depth in the forwards and halves and I can’t see their classy outside backs of Jennings, Coote and Gordon getting the space and ball they need. While ‘Gus’ Gould is rumoured to be working feverishly to turn the Panthers into a powerhouse, I’m sure his plans are more long term and could take a few years to kick in.
Twitter @LukeBonco
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