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The Japanese Football Association will rue the day they decided to organise a friendly against Iceland, and will also rue Japan’s convincing 3-1 win three days ago.
Sound unlikely?
The draw for the fourth round of Asian Football Confederation World Cup qualifying will be conducted in Kuala Lumpur next Friday on March 9. The FIFA World Cup Organising Committee for Brazil 2014 announced recently that the mechanism used to seed the teams will be the March 7 FIFA Rankings.
Football Federation Australia has become increasingly aware of the significance of FIFA Rankings. The higher the ranking, the better the seeding for World Cup qualifying. Australia is comfortably ranked at the top of the Asian Football Confederation. It was mathematically impossible for them to fall to third in Asia and fall out of Pot 1 for next week’s draw. This was not the case for Japan.
Friendly games are weighted the lightest with the FIFA Ranking mechanism.
The eight best ranking scores per game for a calendar year are taken into consideration and then a weighted average per year is accumulated to determine a team’s score.
For instance, Australia increased their average from 832 to 868 by earning 715 match points by defeating Saudi Arabia in a World Cup qualifier. World Cup qualifier points are only surpassed by the World Cup Finals points and Continental Finals points in their ranking weighting.
As friendly games are weighted poorly, even in victory, the FFA was correct in choosing not to schedule an unnecessary game for the Socceroos. This stance was sensible in light of the national team’s ranking falling after a friendly victory over Malaysia last year.
Japan’s defeat of Iceland earned them 270.63 ranking points. Their surprise 1-0 loss to Uzbekistan in Nagoya overnight earned Japan 0 points. In total, the Japanese total ranking score will fall from 762 to 740.
Korea Republic defeated Uzbekistan last week in a friendly (317 points), and overnight defeated Kuwait in a World Cup qualifier (703 points), thereby increasing their total average from 714 to 751.
This will result in Korea Republic moving to the number two ranking in Asia, ahead of Japan.
The Japan Football Association is renowned for its foresight and intricate planning – their 100 year plan for football in Japan is a blueprint that the FFA should follow wholeheartedly.
However, not a single paid employee of the JFA realised that any result in a friendly against Iceland combined with an overnight Japanese defeat and Korean victory would result in Korea jumping Japan in the rankings. The omission is simply inexcusable.
The JFA, through scheduling a poorly thought-out friendly and by underestimating the importance of their game against Uzbekistan, have ensured that Korea Republic, and not Japan, will join Australia in Pot 1 of Asian qualifying next Friday.
The resulting effect is a potentially tougher draw on the road to Brazil. A 50/50 shot of drawing nemesis Australia again from Pot 1, and a 50/50 shot of drawing the most successful and only undefeated team of the third round, Uzbekistan.
Where only the top two teams progress directly to Brazil, the JFA will indeed rue the day they beat Iceland.
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