As the football season proper looms ever closer, it’s time to put my neck on the chopping block and make a few predictions for the year ahead.
Rather than go with the blindingly obvious or highly likely (Collingwood for the flag, GWS for the wooden spoon) I’ve decided to compile a list of predictions that require going out on a limb.
I think they have a sound basis, but if none of these predictions look likely by mid-season, expect the link to this article to be permanently removed to restore some of my credibility.
Here goes!
Buddy Franklin to win the Brownlow
Sooner or later the drought for non-midfielders winning the AFL’s most prestigious individual honour will break, and if any player is capable of tearing Charlie away from those ball-hogs in the centre of the ground, it’s Hawthorn superstar Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin.
Franklin has the ability to turn a match with his freakish skills, and his eye-catching play has seen him poll more Brownlow votes than most other key forwards in the AFL’s highest individual honour. Last year Buddy polled twenty votes, including four best on grounds, and four two-vote matches. When Franklin plays well, he tends to play very well, and he gets noticed by the umpires.
In the Hawks first pre-season hit-out Franklin got a run through the middle of the ground, and if this trend continues for the rest of the year, it will only increase his chances of winning the Brownlow.
I just hope that Buddy doesn’t spoil my prediction by getting rubbed out, as he is prone to doing. If Franklin can hold his best form for much of the year, get the occasional run through the middle of the ground, and avoid having his name penned in the umpire’s book for a tribunal appearance, he could just take out the big one this year.
Fremantle to make the top four
Ross Lyon is a seriously good coach. While his emphasis on defensive game-plans might be the AFL coaching equivalent of a sleeping pill, it gets results. This time last year a lot was expected of the Dockers, but they were cruelled by injuries for much of the season. I expect last year’s result was an aberration, and that season 2012 will see the Dockers surge back up the AFL ladder.
Aaron Sandilands is one of the best two ruckmen in the competition and will continue to give his midfielders first look at the ball. Matthew Pavlich remains under-rated by virtue of playing for the Purple Haze and not on the eastern seaboard. Nathan Fyfe is an emerging star, and Michael Barlow, when fit, is a ball magnet if ever there was one.
The Dockers were luckless last season, but if they get a better run with injuries this year, expect the club to surge into contention for a top-four berth this year.
Adelaide Crows to make the top eight
I’ve just got a sneaking suspicion about the Crows. Of the five rookie coaches this year, Brenton Sanderson is as well equipped as any of them to achieve success in his first year at the helm. Sanderson has been an assistant at Geelong the past four years, and has spent time under premiership coaches Mark Thompson and Brad Scott.
There’s no doubt that the Crows have been poor the past two seasons, but it wasn’t that long ago that they were a white-hot and fast finishing side that missed out on a preliminary finals berth in 2009 by less than a kick. Significantly, six of the seven players who topped the side’s best and fairest that year are still at the club.
The Crows have the softest of draws this year, facing likely cellar dwellers Gold Coast, GWS and Port Adelaide twice each. The Crows will fancy notching up six wins from these encounters alone.
After Neil Craig fell on his sword late last year, Taylor Walker proved he is a player on the rise by booting eighteen goals in his final six matches. If the Walker and Tippett forward-line pairing can find some form, it will worry opposition defences.
Throw in Porplyzia up forward, and Thompson, Dangerfield and Sloane through the midfield, and the Crows are a good chance of getting a taste of September football for the first time in three years.
Collingwood to miss the top four
This is a big call, but not beyond the realm of possibility. Favourite sons returning to coach the club they played for are a bit of a death or glory proposition. For every Paul Roos or John Worsfold who brings premiership success, there is a Michael Voss or Kevin Bartlett who struggles as a coach.
You’d think that Collingwood would have learned from their appointment of Tony Shaw as coach in 1996, but apparently not.
I think the Magpies will start strongly as expected, win around seven or eight of their first ten matches, then gradually fall away after that and miss out on a top-four spot. I look forward to special comments man Mick Malthouse gloating wildly that it would never have happened under his reign if my prediction proves true. Cue the black and white army getting restless and turning on their favourite son Buckley when the Magpies go out of the finals in straight sets this year
Neither a St Kilda Schoolgirl nor Brendan Fevola will occupy the back (or front) pages
This one’s as much a plea as a prediction. After several drama-filled years, I’d be very happy for both to have a year out of the spotlight.
Short of Fev mastering alchemy or Kim Duthie joining the board of BHP, I don’t want to hear or have the need to write about either of them this year.
You can follow Michael on Twitter @MichaelFilosi
Dale Tralongo
Guest
Strummer Jones - funny, I thought you were a swans supporter.
amazonfan
Guest
"I clearly demonstrate that you dont read your posts before posting them." You have demonstrated no such thing, except in your mind. I never said all ultra-talented players were inconsistent, which you seem to conveniently overlook. If you were defending a client facing the death penalty, your client would be on death row before you can finish crowing about your fictitious victory. "You have now called me immature ,aggressive,sarcastic and suggested that my arguments have no merit." I call it as I see it. "When i suggest to you that many greats of the game have not got near the Brownlow you ridicule me and take note where have i used inflammatory language against you." The only person who has been ridiculing the other is you. You just hate it that not only do I reveal your arguments to be of little merit, but that I also reveal that you don't know much about the history of the game. Your tell me to get my facts straight about Cazaly, but you clearly don't know the first thing about his career. Furthermore, not only do you get caught up in side-issues, but you don't tackle the central issue of whether umpires resent these players or not. You have not presented any evidence at all. None, zero, zilch. But then, you have no evidence, so you attempt to deflect it by becoming aggressive and sarcastic, bringing up side issues, ignore most of my points, and nonsensically attempt to tell me that I don't read my posts, when it's obvious you don't read any posts at all! "If you only want to read opinions similiar to yours reply to your own posts ." I can say the same thing to you. I fact, I did. Bye Bye.
brendan
Guest
I clearly demonstrate that you dont read your posts before posting them.You have now called me immature ,aggressive,sarcastic and suggested that my arguments have no merit.You took one point out of my initial post to suit yourselve and vehemently challenged me upon it.When i suggest to you that many greats of the game have not got near the Brownlow you ridicule me and take note where have i used inflammatory language against you.If you only want to read opinions similiar to yours reply to your own posts .
amazonfan
Roar Guru
What are you on about? Other than proving that you have no arguments, you don't read what I write, you have an in incredibly immature way of exiting discussions, and it's a waste of time talking to you. Bye Bye.
brendan
Guest
As i said you should read what you write before you post iquote verbatim"" AS i said ultra talented players are OFTEN not particularly talented!!!! "" What are you on about .Bye Bye.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
Oh, god. You are telling me that I should read what I write before I reply? Not only did you not read what I wrote, but you have no right to make such a comment. As it is, I said ultra talented players are OFTEN not particularly talented!!!! Just like with the Cazaly thing, you love making hypocritical accusations. As for me not liking other opinions and attacking you, you couldn't come up with something original? Seeing as I accused you of it first. It's interesting that you mention past grievances as my past grievences all relate to you either not accepting other people's opinions, being aggressive & sarcastic, or attempting to rewrite history (you accused me once of a hypocricy which was a revision of history). As for the Brownlow, plenty of champions have won, and if you think the reason certain other champions haven't is because the umpires resent them, then we truly have nothing to discuss with one another.
Daniel S
Guest
As a big hawker I would love for Buddy to win a brown low . Of all the current key forwards he is most likely, but alas, he is prone to being suspended, often for soft things. However Hodge and Mitchell are going to cause havoc this year
Strummer Jones
Guest
Saw the photo at the beginning of the article. I thought you were predicting Ted Richards to win the Brownlow. I am someone disappointed. However, my 5 fearless predictions are: 1. Ted Richards to win the Brownlow 2. Swans to win Flag 3. Swans to finish top 4 4. Swans to finish top 8 5. Swans to finish higher than 9th and my "super 6th selection (SSS) is 6. Swans to play in the Grand Final p.s I hope Carlton can do this one year as I am a Blues supporter you know.
brendan
Guest
You need to read what you write before you reply.1 ultra talented players are not particularly consistent.You also said it is absurd if not offensive to label the umpires the way i have.It is you that doesnt like other opinions .You responded to this entry by me and attacked me once again -now i am sarcastic - because of past grievances.i dont care if you respond or dont too many champions of the game have not won Brownlows forit too be circumstantial.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Club memberships as at Sunday 3 March: Club Members Collingwood 53,000 West Coast 50,149 Hawthorn 49,721 Adelaide 41,910 Essendon 40,746 Richmond 37,257 Carlton 35,302 Geelong 32,216 Port Adelaide 28,378 St Kilda 27,349 Melbourne 25,618 North Melbourne 24,057 Western Bulldogs 22,580 Sydney 21,812 Brisbane 15,433 Gold Coast 10,000 GWS 6,209 Fremantle N/A GWS numbers are still lowish, but they have increased by 1,800 over last two weeks, so should reach 8k+ by first home game. They are hoping to break the attendance record for a debut team, set by Adelaide in 1991 at 44k - it's possible, but will probably fall short: http://www.smh.com.au/afl/afl-news/not-such-giant-numbers-but-gws-like-membership-figures-20120305-1uedu.html
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Lethal raised the bar at winning the hard ball and geez the opposiiton used to go after him, but they could never stop him.
Pope Paul VII
Guest
Leigh had a bit of a problem with the fairness bit. Brutal times though.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
"Cazaly really made his name at Sth Melbourne where he played inthe mid twenties" He played the overwhelming majority of his career pre-Brownlow. "so get your facts right before you accuse others" Get over yourself. I never accused you of anything, I simply didn't think that Cazaly was relevant. You really don't like people disagreeing with you do you? You act so aggressive (and often sarcastically) whenever someone disagrees with you. I'm sick of it, and I doubt that I'll be responding to you again. Oh, and before you tell me to get my facts straight, why don't you? You need to research his career. I also find it interesting (and predictable) that you would focus on some side-issue about Cazaly, instead of commenting on the main issue "In 1993 Gary Ablett senior averaged over seven goals a game including four times kicking over ten goals per game yet didnt even finish top three." He also failed to win Geelong's Best and Fairest. "Leigh Matthews is another great,some claim the best of all time,yet he never got near the Brownlow either." I believe we were talking about ridiculously talented players. Anyway, plenty of great players have won the Brownlow.
brendan
Guest
Cazaly really made his name at Sth Melbourne where he played inthe mid twenties -the brownlow first held in 1924 so get your facts right before you accuse others.In 1993 Gary Ablett senior averaged over seven goals a game including four times kicking over ten goals per game yet didnt even finish top three.Leigh Matthews is another great,some claim the best of all time,yet he never got near the Brownlow either.
Lachlan
Roar Guru
Buddy - Will not win the Brownlow. Doesn't get as much footy as the midfielders and umpires fail to recognise forwards, backs or midfielders. Fremantle - This is a real and genuine possibility, if not this year definetly next year, even win the flag next year, is bold but a good chance. Adelaide - Total agree. They have the players, the coaching staff and a good draw, they win make the 8. Collingwood - Will not miss the top four and if they do they'll still manage to verse Hawthorn in the Grand Final. Fevola - Schoolgirl shouldn't Fev could have a slight chance. The fact that OMFL clubs are paying him to verse them away, is enough and the fact that New Norfolk from Tasmania (not even the TSL) are paying to play one game for them.
amazonfan
Roar Guru
I never said every ultra talented player was inconsistent. I said they often are (such as Buddy) and I stand by that. Anyway, it was just one reason I stated. Oh, not only is it debatable that EJ was ridiculously talented (although he was of course one of the absolute greatest players of all time) but Cazaly was pre-Brownlow. I also listed two ulta-talented players who have won the Brownlow. Regardless, my point is that it is completely absurd, not to mention offensive, to state that these players never won a Brownlow because umpires resent ridiculously talented players.
brendan
Guest
Ted Whitten , Alex Jesalenko and from times past Roy Cazaly no Brownlows.All inconsistent were they?
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
I think most football followers would love to see a non-midfielder win the Brownlow some time soon. It has truly become the 'midfielders medal.' Franklin is a star, and is the most likely player who does not get a regular run through the midfield to win Charlie. I hope that the umpires place more emphasis on the efforts of forwards and backlines when they give votes, rather than just the men in the middle of the ground.
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
It is true that the Crows have been talked up the previous two pre-seasons on the back of five straight finals performances under former coach Neil Craig prior to season 2010. I think the club has the talent to make the top eight this year, maybe even a little better. If the side has a third poor season in a row in 2012, then it will be a lot harder to make that argument ahead of the 2013 season.
Michael Filosi
Roar Guru
Agree, can't see any of Saints, Bombers of Bulldogs to make the top eight this year.