AFL destined to become Australia's NFL

Australian Rules Football is considered by many of its followers to be the national sport of Australia. Currently, however, this could not be further from the truth.

Cricket is the only game we as Australians can truly call national. Personally I will never see Australian Rules as our national game and nor do I care, despite it being my favourite sport. The Australian landscape is diverse in its nature, similar to another sports-mad nation in the USA.

Just look at the sheer number of sports played across all walks of life. It’s amazing. But in most countries, there is one sport that is undisputedly numero uno.

If we firstly take a look around the world, this pattern holds true. Let’s start with association football, the beautiful game.

I love this sport, it is magnificent to watch at the highest level, much more so than Australian Rules. It dominates all sports in Europe, nothing even comes close. Throughout Africa, the Middle East, South American, and large parts of Asia, it is the same.

Where football is not the biggest sport, then it is something more specific. Japan has sumo wrestling, Korea taekwondo, Afghanistan has polo, Canada ice hockey, India and Pakistan cricket, Cuba baseball, and China… um… table tennis?

There is no doubt AFL is the 800-pound gorilla in the Australian sporting landscape, but I don’t believe it has reached cult status like these sports have reached in their respective countries.

Many will argue Australian Rules won’t be able to achieve this status because it will never have an international presence. I agree with its limited presence, but I don’t believe that will stop it becoming as big as another sport that it is similar to, NFL.

Despite baseball being the national game of America (much like cricket is to Australia), NFL to most Americans is the biggest sport in the USA, culminating in the Super Bowl which is far and away the largest sporting event each year.

Despite this, gridiron has zero international presence. Not one country can I think of takes this game remotely seriously, yet NFL players are some of the highest-paid and most revered athletes around the world. Why? Because the US market is so large, they don’t need to be big outside their own country.

One of my favourite quotes, “bigger means boss”, derives from the Okavango Delta in Africa. It is true in wildlife hierarchy and holds just as true in any sporting landscape.

It is also no secret that Australian parliamentarians are in favour of population growth over the next 50 years. So much so the latest census data predicts the Australian population will reach 35-40 million by 2050. Who knows what the population will be in 100 years.

The time is ripe, then, for Australia’s biggest sport to start bulldozing every other sport in the Australian landscape. AFL does have three other football codes that stand in the way of complete domination.

Let’s start with soccer. Its major strength is junior participation, in which its numbers annihilate the AFL’s. That’s where the pros end, unfortunately. Despite this junior participation, soccer will always be a mass failure at the upper level for one reason.

Australians will not tolerate second-rate sport. While of course it’s by default, AFL is the best Australian Rules competition in the world. NRL is the best rugby league competition in the world. Super Rugby is the best rugby union competition in the world.

Rugby league’s main strength lies in the fact it is simple. Five tackles, kick, five tackles, kick. If anyone has tried explaining the rules of AFL, especially holding the ball, the newcomer would be tearing their hair out in confusion.

League is simple, but in my opinion mothers don’t want their kids playing the game, which is one of the reasons junior participation rates have not grown at the same rate as soccer and AFL.

It also has poor management at the top, continually focusing on New South Wales and Queensland with no clear vision for a truly national presence. It promotes products which alienate the masses it is trying to attract, not realising this will hurt the game long term.

League also has a lot of natural predators. It’s considered by many as the poor cousin to union internationally, despite being bigger nationally. Union is seen as a more elitist sport, drawing the biggest names. Due to its greater international presence it can command more money and draw even the best league players.

This code is likely to put up some resistance in the next five years, but eventually it will succumb to its fate as a punching bag for the AFL, along with being a good recruiting ground for raw talent.

Finally rugby union. Internationally it is big. Not football big, but in Europe it is much bigger than you would think here in Australia. I worked for the Munster rugby club in Ireland and it has grown tenfold in the past 10 years.

The growth rate is amazing and I see this game continuing to grow in Europe. As a result of this I see more and more great players from Super Rugby teams leaving for the greater financial reward which the Heineken Cup can provide.

Union also has the same problems as league, with more head injuries resulting in more mums hating the game for their kids. Junior participation rates are falling and this great game is in real trouble at the grassroots level.

Not good for the Wallabies going forward. It will always be a niche sport here in Australia, but have a prominent place due to its elitism.

AFL sits nicely between all these codes. It is a contact sport, but not to the same extent. It has no natural predators, as players are extremely unlikely to defect to other codes or competitions. Expansion for the AFL has a double effect, for it is essentially a wrecking ball for the other codes in their own heartland.

Take the AFL’s expansion on the Gold Coast. Already we have seen Gold Coast United go under. After just one year of the Suns being in the competition, The Titans are also in huge financial trouble, while the Suns somehow made a profit. Not only are they expanding, they are taking market share from their rivals.

The same can’t be said about expansion into AFL heartland. At the very best other codes can carve out a niche, but it will not have any effect on the AFL clubs in these areas. AFL can feel confident it has an extremely solid base to launch its assault on the rest of the nation.

Based on history and the above logic, the AFL’s destiny is to become the NFL of Australia. It is poised to do so, but only time will tell if it does.