The betting market has Collingwood as premiership favourites. Expert opinion, however, is saying something else. Terry Wallace has suggested the Pies’ lack of depth, already highlighted in the NAB Cup, will cost them the flag.
Who would have thought depth was going to be a problem after they won the competition in 2010? I predicted a Collingwood empire after they demolished the formidable Geelong side in that year’s preliminary final. I just couldn’t see anyone challenging them in the near future.
Their key players were experienced and still relatively young. Mick Malthouse’s famed rotation policy was one of the main reasons his side had become a dominant force.
Young players were regularly rotated between the VFL and senior sides to ensure broad AFL experience within the squad. And regular members of the senior side were rarely kept in the same positions so each could become a jack of all trades on game day.
It was silly of me to make such a forecast, of course. Malthouse said himself that so much happens in a grand final that it feels like a lifetime. A whole season, then, might as well be an eternity.
The club lost their second and third most experienced players: the important all-rounder Leigh Brown (246 games) and the half-back excitement machine Leon Davis (225). Brent Macaffer and Andrew Krakouer have both suffered season-ending injuries.
The loss of Krakouer, the continued poor form of Didak, and the failure of Jarryd Blair to kick on from his fairytale 2010 debut season will also seriously affect their strike power in front of goal.
They looked the goods last year but were ultimately found wanting against Geelong. That is nothing to be ashamed of, but do they have any improvement in them?
Their grand final conquerors have lost the vastly experienced Cameron Ling, Brad Ottens, Cameron Mooney, and Darren Milburn. But the last two weren’t considered good enough for the grand final anyway, and their gun youngsters Tom Hawkins, Allen Christensen, Trent West, and Daniel Menzel are on the rise.
Terry Wallace, not unexpectedly, has anointed his old team Hawthorn as premiership favourites. With the class of some of their players and the amazing depth (the bottom eleven have played 768 games between them) that is difficult to argue with.
Listening to Malthouse’s 2011 pre-game grand final speech on the Channel Seven documentary Two Hours That Last A Lifetime, it became clear that the coach of the minor premiers suspected the task of winning the premiership was beyond his playing group: “This is going to take one of the greatest efforts of all time. Because they (Geelong) are a good side.”
Is it realistic then to think Collingwood, with a weakened list, can reassert themselves and present a challenge to the undoubtedly classier Geelong and Hawthorn outfits? What about the talented up-and-comers in West Coast and Adelaide?
There are distractions as well. Ignoring his team’s unceremonious eviction from the NAB Cup, Nathan Buckley has not had a real chance to present his coaching credentials. However, with an experienced and successful man like Rodney Eade as his ‘football and coaching strategist’, many are wondering if Buckley is actually the coach.
Then there’s Malthouse, already proving to be an annoying presence as a media commentator with his veiled criticism of the club’s handling of the Krakouer affair. He did say he thought Collingwood would win the premiership, but who knows if that was a true view, an act of encouragement, or an attempt to put pressure on Buckley?
On a positive note for the club, Eade has downplayed his own influence, claiming Buckley has already placed his imprint on the side. Perhaps the club will be revitalised by the new coach, just as Geelong were last season.
Malthouse had done so well with unexceptional lists by strictly adhering to structures. He was a paternal leader, meaning the players often felt like they were playing for him rather than the team. The agonised look on poor Chris Dawes’ face immediately after the grand final when he thought he had let his father figure down was awful to watch.
From all accounts the young coach is more old school than his predecessor – reducing the role of high performance manager and scientist David Buttifant, keeping the players out on the track longer and focusing less on structure and more on ball skills.
This seems a positive response to the seemingly never-ending challenge posed by Geelong.
Chris Scott is a contemporary to his players but he is also thoughtful and wise. Collingwood are hoping Buckley will be the same to his group, and bring the club a premiership.
I’m tempted to say he won’t, but I’m done making forecasts.
Veni, Vedi, Sherrin Calcitravi
Guest
Incorrect, by end of regular season having beaten Geelong by 30 points Collingwood was very much favourite.
Veni, Vedi, Sherrin Calcitravi
Guest
Sorry Ptato22 I completely disagree. In all the pressure talk of 2010, neither St Kilda or Geelong had a 20 page 'can they win it or not' publication in the age before the prelim.. while StK and Geelong started odds on with most wondering if a 'no-name Collingwood would make finals'.. come the pointy end of the season (ie round 19 onwards), Collingwood was being touted as favourite by most commentators.
Rob McLean
Guest
Ptato - Collingwood is always under pressure. We must win. Our supporters demand it and the opposition supporters are waiting for us to fall down. There is never a chance to concentrate on 'just winning'. That's what comes from being a BIG club, the same goes for Essendon and Carlton.
Luke
Guest
The philosophy of football is not what I am talking about. Yes philosophically if you walk unto the field you are fit. But that is an idea. If you don't believe that Reid was injured then you are the only person I have spoken to that thinks that. My point is not that anyway - my point is that Hawkins' performance has been exaggerated by some people (interesting not too many Geelong supporters I know - mostly media types)
brendan
Guest
Mickey Tarrant was on Johnson who kicked four if Reid had of been put on him Geelong would have won by more.Malthouse took the gamble on unfit players (he had no choice as there was no-one else ) and lost.I am a Geelong supporter but realise that when it matterred Collingwood had bad luck and even what appeared misfortune for us ie Podsiadly injury turned out to be a plus as Bartel and others exposed Maxwell's lack of pace .
ptato22
Guest
That's my whole point, Richard. Because St Kilda and Geelong dominated all that year, nobody in the press was talking up the Pies as The Team - thereby giving them that freedom to simply concentrate on winning. As for Collingwood haters, I didn't grow up here and have no feelings for them one way or another. Loved Malthouse and wanted him to go to St Kilda. Just offering my opinion, mate...
Richard
Roar Guru
The relative lack of pressure on that Collingwood side in 2010? Are you kidding. Geelong and St Kilda dominated the competition in 2010 for almost the entire season, and you think there was no pressure? The 'Pies 2010 win couldn't be because they were a great team which peaked at the right time with, praise the lord, a full list could it? Probably not. To some people Collingwood are no good as a team even when they win big. Very myopic and mean spirited of them I must say. You're not one of those are you? We know all about those people. After all - It's Us Against Them. ;-)
Ads
Guest
Window is way open. Geez they have a young team still on the rise. Rubbish article
Paul
Guest
I support Melbourne Victory and Collingwood. I have just watched one of my teams stumble through a forgettable season due to inexperienced coaches. I do not want to have another 6 months of this in the other code. That is all.
mickey
Guest
But it did happen Luke, no excuses in a GF and like I said why they didn't move Tarrant onto him I'll never know. I'm not a Geelong supporter
ptato22
Guest
Eade is being low-key of course because he surely is tired of the pressure of having to produce a winner. That's Buckley's problem now and Eade would be wise to stay far from the limelight as the pressure will mount as the weeks pass. Another good article Andrew. I think another reason for the super success of 2010 is the relative lack of pressure on that Collingwood side. Year after year, it's often the pressure to perform that can send a team out of the finals. I think St. Kilda, for all the talk about playing styles etc, lost their grand final appearances due to an inability to suck up the pressure and play at their highest level. Collingwood won't even make the grand final this year.
Richard
Roar Guru
Don't know whether you were at the "G" when Geelong trounced Collingwood in Round 24. Poor performance by the boys, but Reid played an almighty game that day. He was everywhere on that back line all day and without him, well, who knows. When fit, last year, he was a champion.
Luke
Guest
But that would not be what happened Mickey. A journo quoted Reid as saying he could not push off his right leg after half time. I am not saying Hawkins wont still be a gun. I am saying after being awful for four years a couple of good games does not make you good. If you are a Geelong supporter you already know what I am talking about. I live in geelong west I am very aware of the concern surrounding Hawkins
mickey
Guest
"Both teams played a stellar game, but either could have won and both were worthy. " No both played a stellar 3 qtrs one rose to the occasion , one didn't. As for Reid it could be he played CHB on a team that basically dominated 90% of the competition for the season and when he was left one out was exposed on the biggest stage - why they didn't move Tarrant on to Hawkins will be one for the ages...
brendan
Guest
Richard, Hawkins might be like Think Big -didnt win a race between Melbourne cup victories- his best game for Geelong the 2011 G/F his second best the 2009 G/F.
Richard
Roar Guru
Yes I agree. Suddenly Hawkins is running riot on the forward line and there's Reidy hobbling along after him, a shadow of the player he had been all year. That was the turning point in the match for me and, in the end, the difference in the GF. Both teams played a stellar game, but either could have won and both were worthy. Like I said,new season and it's time we made Geelong pay and show up Hawkins' true ability.
Luke
Guest
I can't help but think that much of the opinion in that article comes from reading media reports, not from watching games. Blair in his second season in the AFL was very good from where I was sitting. Didak struggled badly after an interupted preseason. Dawes was fantastic until he was injured. And I am sick of hearing about how Hawkins after being one of the biggest draft busts of recent years plays a couple of good games in important games and suddenly he is miraculously a great player. He was close to the VFL at times last year and playing one good quarter against Reid on one leg hardly makes you a star. Christenson Menzel and Duncan were great! But that just proves Premiers have young players step up; see Blair, Sidebottom and Beams from 2010. At the end of the day all of your predictions may be correct - but I can't help but feel something else guides your pen - like so many others you plain don't like Collingwood and you don't want to imagine a world where they do well.
Rob McLean
Guest
I never thought Collingwood were going to win last year's GF. We'd done it tough in the final month and a half and looked a shadow of the side that had dominated the competition earlier. Injuries and the form concerns over Didak meant we had many more question marks than a classy side in Geelong. And when the first three quarters were as tight a tussle as they were, the final quarter was always going to be a struggle for us. I look forward to this year with expectations of being around the mark. I have continued concerns about our second ruck options, particularly if Jolly goes down. As we saw last season Cameron Wood has a lot to improve upon. Leigh Brown is not highly rated but he gave a second ruck option when Jolly was resting. His throw everything attitude was very important to us. Hopefully we can see someone fill that role.
Andrew Sutherland
Roar Guru
Tommy, I know everyone said that about Geelong. I did too... but that was Geelong. You're right to mention their great midfield and one key forward but that goes without saying for an excellent side. Malthouse explained that his teams' success (including the less talented ones of '02 & '03) were based on structure - that players can come and go but structure is all.
Andrew Sutherland
Roar Guru
Cattery, brilliant wasn't it? Wonderful to be allowed in like that.