Greater Western Sydney will win more games this season then Gold Coast did last season. A big call, you might think. Crazy almost. Why am I making such an outrageous prediction?
Simple. I believe Greater Western Sydney Giants have the makings of a better football team than the Gold Coast Suns in regards to preparation, coaching experience and list creation.
Guy McKenna has done a splendid job developing the young list at the Suns, taking them to three wins, and almost avoiding a wooden spoon (Port Adelaide remained 16th on percentage.) That’s not a bad result for a young list and young coaching panel.
For perspective’s sake, Guy McKenna had a successful career at the West Coast Eagles, playing in both the 1992 and 1994 premiership sides. His AFL coaching career started at West Coast and continued at Collingwood as an assistant before gaining the top job at Gold Coast.
Like many players-turned-coach he served his time as an apprentice under veterans John Worsfold and Mick Malthouse. However, even with several years of apprenticeship under such veterans the task of coaching a young new club was always going to be a challenge.
The entire coaching team was a young group, with the majority being freshly retired players. If we then compare this experience with the experience of the Giants coaching staff, we get a dramatic difference.
Kevin Sheedy, the senior coach of Greater Western Sydney, played in three premierships as a player and then coached Essendon to four premierships in an outstanding 27-year coaching career.
Sheedy, along with all his other accolades, also has the proven ability to make a young list perform, with the famous 1993 Baby Bombers premiership a case in point. One of the most experienced and highly regarded men in football also has strong support.
Mark Williams had a successful career at Collingwood, retiring in 1990. His AFL coaching career began at Port Adelaide, where in 1999 he became head coach, leading the Power to three minor premierships (2002, 2003, and 2004). He also won the AFL premiership in 2004 to deny Brisbane a record fourth flag. Williams is one of the most distinguished assistant coaches in the competition.
The other positive of the Giants is the incorporation of playing coaches Dean Brogan, James McDonald, and Luke Power.
I really rate this concept by GWS, as players will learn by doing, and by doing they become quality players.
I liken this concept to the development of midfielders at both Carlton and Richmond, both of which experienced rapid improvement after the introduction of Chris Judd and Ben Cousins respectively.
The concept of players being involved heavily in both on and off field team development will be a growing trend in the future.
The second thing to look at is the playing list.
There has been much hype about both the Suns and the GWS list. You just get the feel that GWS have got a better mix of new and old, experience, and inexperience.
Take for example the Gold Coast signings. It goes without saying that Gary Ablett was a brilliant selection as he is vital to the above comment about young development.
Michael Rischitelli was also a great selection and many view him as an underrated player. However, these are players in the middle of their careers, not starting out or finishing.
Of the other appointments, Campbell Brown was a risk. He showed during last season that he is not a great influence on young talent and is a rogue cannon who headhunts for the hell of it and justifies it by “protecting” younger players.
Nathan Bock has also been an underperforming player for the Suns, spending several games out with suspension and injury.
And Karmichael Hunt, one of the AFL’s great poaches, who was idolised in the rugby world, has had a transition to AFL that you could call modest, to say the least. His ability to adapt was always going to be tough.
GWS have what appears on paper to be a better list.
They have recruited some old stalwarts of the game in Brogan, Power, and McDonald, as well as Chad Cornes. These men have collective experience that is invaluable to the young list.
They also all play in different positions and understand their role at the club. While injury for old bodies is a major concern, the assistant coach concept is a good one to cover this.
GWS \ has acquired a good crop of quality two-to-four-year players that are just establishing their careers in the AFL. Phil Davies, Rhys Palmer, Tom Scully and Callan Ward are premium players who are looking at high-profile careers. They are the base for the future success of the club.
This differs to the Suns imports, all of whom were established in clubs and had their own set methods of football.
This brings me to GWS’s great rugby steal, Israel Folau.
This guy has potential; he is tall and fit and moves like a footballer. He has shown ability to adapt well to the 360-degree game.
Overall, you just get the feeling that GWS, having the ability of watching the Suns battle through their first year, have given themselves a different approach and a better opportunity to establish.
The Suns won three games in their inaugural season and are aiming to double that this season; I would say that GWS could manage four to five wins this season.
Davyn
Roar Rookie
Good result for GWS on Saturday :).
brendan
Guest
Big call forthe Giants to win six games.Who knows Sydney might might be an average side this yearso other sides might pump them .Was impressed with what Gws did on friday but as cricket teaches you dont judge till both sides have had a bat.Wait till they win before making predictions as losing 6-7 weeks in a row can demoralise even the most experienced sides and that fate more than likely will be the lot of the Giants.
smokin joe
Guest
There is absolutely no way GWS will win a game this year. Half way through the 3rd quarter on Saturday night they had 22 points on the board, this will be their problem this year, they just do not have the players to kick a winning score. Yes, they can keep possession and kick it around the backline but that does not win games. When the Swans finally woke up that you have to move the ball quickly they kicked 5 quick goals. GWS are quite good at contested footy but other sides will just play on at all times against them and score heavily. 100 point plus drubbings will be the norm!
EddyJ
Guest
Absolutely agree with your article. It's strange how there are all these assumptions that Gold Coast will win more games in 2012, just because they are into their second season, without considering their key personnel and also their coaching staff. McKenna may have been a great player during his West Coast career, but it's hard to assess his coaching abilities at this stage. Could Gold Coast have won more games with a different or more experienced coach in 2011? What if McKenna is just a coach who is not so good? They may even lose more games in 2012 – remember the Swans in 1992–1994 (went backwards)? Or Melbourne during 2008–09 (won one more game in 2009)? We can't be sure, because we have nothing to compare the Gold Coast team, nor McKenna's coaching abilities. But Sheedy and WIlliams have a proven track record (five premierships between them) and, based on the Giant's performance against the Swans on Saturday night, they might not be the pushovers that everyone is expecting.
Davyn
Roar Rookie
I agree with some of the points you have included, and cheers for clearing up some of my errors. My first article on here and maybe a bit lacking in research. I still stand by it, GWS will win more games than the Suns. The coaching staff are by far one of the most decorated combinations in the AFL.
stabpass
Guest
GWS are going to have to pull a big gun recruit next year. Travis Cloke if Collingwood win the flag this year ?.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
I agree that Gold Coasts experienced players are substantially better than GWS' experienced players - if you take Ablett out, its probably even, and Ablett is a heck of a player to remove. I also agree with TomC's views on how well Gold Coasts' free agents played last year. However, in five years time Ablett, Bock and Rischitelli will be on the down slope, and Davis, Ward, Scully and Palmer should be hitting their straps. Where I think GWS did better was in their state league players - Clifton, Mohr and Giles were all excellent pickups, and I think Giles is already a better choice than Brogan for first ruck. I think GWS did better than Gold Coast in their drafted players, but thats a question better answered in five years. That said, it will be an ugly season, and for me the pass mark is one win, and four quarters of effort in every game. Carna Giants.
Matt F
Roar Guru
Thanks TomC. You've covered most of the points i was gong to make so you've saved me some time! Good analysis. It will be a minor miracle of GWS can match GC's efforts from last year. They'll win one, maybe two, games at some point in the season but I don't think that they've recrutied anywhere near as good as GC did with their senior players.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Agree with all these points, good analysis. I think GWS will be doing extremely well to match the Suns' 3 wins, I hope they do it, I'll be rooting for them, but it's unlikely they will surpass the Suns' number of wins from last season. And just to get to that magic 3 number, they need all their senior players on the paddock, and at the moment, they at least four of their best out injured, plus General Patton is out till May. Sheeds is good at develoing kids, so I have no doubt they'll put in and give their all, but they will fall short, and for most of each 2 hour game, they will be out-contested and out-classed.
TomC
Guest
A few points. 'Nathan Bock has also been an underperforming player for the Suns, spending several games out with suspension and injury.' Bock played 21 games last season and finished second in the club's best and fairest. This statement is completely false. You've also left out AFL experienced players like Danny Stanley and Daniel Harris, who were solid contributors. GWS would be delighted to get the same output out of Luke Power, Dean Brogan, Chad Cornes and James McDonald, only two of whom will play tonight due to injury. And indeed, they'd be thrilled to get the same ouput from Scully, Palmer, O'Hailpin or Davis as Gold Coast got from Brennan, Harbrow or Iles. 'While injury for old bodies is a major concern, the assistant coach concept is a good one to cover this.' I think you've missed the point of having experienced players. If they miss half a season through injury, then that's half a season where another young rookie has to be promoted to play against hardened, experienced AFL players. They just aren't physically developed enough. Gold Coast were at least able to offer their kids slightly more protection than GWS will be. 'I liken this concept to the development of midfielders at both Carlton and Richmond, both of which experienced rapid improvement after the introduction of Chris Judd and Ben Cousins respectively.' Richmond went from 9th in 2008 to 15th in 2009, Cousins' first season. Certainly Carlton improved in Judd's first season, but that might have had something to do with Chris Judd playing for them. Also, players like Gibbs, Murphy and Carrazzo were much more advanced in their development than the Giants' draftees. 'This brings me to GWS’s great rugby steal, Israel Folau.' Maybe one day he'll be a good footballer, but with 30 possessions and one goal out of four games in the NAB Cup we might have to wait a little bit longer. Folau at CHF is actually a black mark against the Giants' chances: they'd be a lot better off with Josh Bruce in that position. One further point that seems to have slipped out of a lot of peoples' minds: the Suns were lucky to win any games at all last season. They had narrow victories over three struggling teams, each at their lowest points of the season, some of whom were suffering from injuries. With a percentage of 57, it's clear that they struggled to be competitive most weeks. I expect GWS will win a game at some point, possibly against the Suns in round 7, depending on player availability. They might shank another one if any team manages to be as hopeless as Port or Brisbane were last season. But they will win fewer than three games and I expect they'll end up with a percentage of 50-55.