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The weather has been good in Brisbane this week so we should see the first midweek meeting unaffected by rain in some time. The track is a slow six at the moment.
A busy day of racing with most races featuring large fields. This makes picking a winner tough but the value will be there if we find a winner.
Race 1
A two year old maiden race with a number of first starters. This race is an absolute lottery.
Of those who have raced before, Wolfsburg has the best form. Wolfsburg was third behind Snipzu on debut (a horse that has gone on to be quite competitive at a group one level) and has since trialled impressively.
Lillabelle has gone close in the country before and appears to be well weighted (carrying only 51.5kg after the jockeys claim) but as fifth emergency is unlikely to get a run. Abbalac has shown good form on the Sunshine Coast but struggled in its last visit to the city.
Of the first starters, Mac’s Addiction, Presentation and Stolen Kisses have all trialled well. However, with so many untested horses this is an extremely tough race to judge.
Recommended bet: no bet
Race 2
A three year old maiden race again with several first starters. This is a little easier though, with some horses with decent form.
Stradon has been impressive since he resumed after a long spell in February. Stradon lost to Athabasca by a nose last start, and despite carrying 59kg is still the horse to beat in this one.
The main dangers look to be Little Feathers, who ran a solid third at Doomben a fortnight ago, and Lady Guevara, who is first up after a consistent campaign last spring. Because of the unknown quality of the multiple first starters, keep your bets small.
Recommended bet: one unit on Stradon to win.
Race 3
A rare race for the staying horses is third up tomorrow. All the city horses here have exposed form, and of that group Atttica looks to be the pick. He is giving very little weight to a number of horses he beat easily last start.
The horses coming from the country are a bit tougher to rate. Son of Benny and Shale Shaker are honest old stayers who sometimes surprise with the odd win, while others like Big Seas and With Elegance are pretty much hopeless.
I expect Attica to have too much class for these horses. My only issue is the young apprentice Vance being on board, but the speed map looks good for Attica, so hopefully the youngster won’t have any problems.
Recommended bet: three units Attica to win (this is pick of the day)
Race 4
A very open race for three-year-old maidens.Two runners stand out for me in this one.
The extremely well bred Rock the Pac was consistent in its last campaign, finishing close to some quality horses such as Bevico Girl. The horse has a good first up record and should be in the mix.
Bundaberg horse Belladonna Delago was very good when second a fortnight ago behind Sir Esmond. It meets a number of horses from that race here again and appears to be very well weighted.
Recommended bet: one unit on Rock the Pac to win; one unit on Belladonna Delago to win, one unit on a Rock the Pac, Belladonna Delago quinella.
Race 5
This race is apart of the National Apprentice Series with the race limited to apprentice jockeys.
Snip N Duck will start the favourite in this race and deservedly so. The classy horse has run a place in its last four starts and won by a fair distance last start at Doomben. If it repeats that performance here it will win by three lengths.
The likely danger is Igles Star. Igles Star has been consistent this campaign without breaking out for a win. It hasn’t recaptured its form from last year when it appeared to have Snip N Duck’s number.
The race should be run to suit Snip N Duck, so it’s hard to see it getting beaten. The horse will start at quiet a short price though but I’m happy to take anything better than $1.80.
Recommended bet: Three units Snip N Duck to win.
Race 6
A tough race to analyse with little exposed form. Once again I am drawn to the favourite. Tabassi was good first up, drops in weight and has a strong second-up record.
A roughie I like the look of is Express Warrior. The horse has a strong record at Ipswich, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast, and while this is a step up in class, with Chris Munce on board he should still be competitive.
Noisy Ocean is first up after running second in the Group 3 Vo Rogue Plate last year, but is forced to carry 60kg in this race. I feel that this is too much for a three-old-horse no matter his quality.
Recommended bet: Two units Tabassi to win, one unit Express Warrior Each Way
Race 7
Manzano resumes in Race 7 after finishing 2011 with a couple of impressive victories. The classy colt broke its maiden with a six-length victory, then followed it up with a two-length victory in a class three race (like this one) two weeks later. The handicapper has slugged it with 58kg in this one, a big jump from its previous starts. This and the fact the horse is untested at this distance makes me uneasy to back it.
Recommended bet: no bet (unless you can get at least $5 for Manzano).
Race 8
The day’s racing concludes with a class five handicap.
I’m unsold on the favourite Ten Seconds. Ten Seconds was poor first up at Doomben and goes up in weight for this outing. The horse has been excellent in the past but I just can’t support a horse that was so poor first up.
The second favourite Invincible Mate was also poor last start and like Ten Seconds would have to significantly improve to win this race.
Therefore, I’m looking to a roughie in this one. Issues is a consistent galloper who should get a pretty soft run on the pace. Issues is currently paying $31 for the win which in my opinion is great value.
Recommend bet: one unit each way on Issues.
It should be a cracker of a meeting at Doomben with a number of good betting propositions. Hopefully the rain stays away and we can have a sunny day of racing.
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