In his highly acclaimed book Moneyball, writer Michael Lewis showed how sometimes you can win, or at least be competitive, by focusing on the basic skills of the game and looking through the athleticism to find value players who have an innate ability to play the game.
He showed that sometimes there’s no replacement for intuition, and that players who have a natural feel for the game can sometimes overcome physical liabilities by being able to read the game better than someone who is more athletic but less experienced.
In the AFL everyone knows Israel Folau and Karmichael Hunt were signed by new AFL teams to promote the game in the northern states. Both players were known as gifted athletes in respective codes, and the thought was their natural athleticism would go some way to helping them acclimatise to their new game.
However, it seems that both players are probably in the wrong era to succeed in the AFL. These days recruiters place a premium on disposal skills, especially kicking. And in this modern era of lightning-quick football, the ability to kick accurately at speed has never been a more difficult skill.
More and more players need to rely on intuition in making split-second decisions and executing under extreme pressure. More than ever players need to rely on their years of training. Many elite junior players are never given the chance these days to live out their dream of playing AFL simply because they have never quite mastered the art of kicking.
In the older less professional days players could still eke out a career even though their kicking skills were dubious. Some players even looked as though they were being asked to kick for the first time when you saw the awkward kicking style.
Ex Collingwood and Fitzroy ruckman James “Charlie” Manson made kicking a football seem more difficult than flying a space shuttle.
Genuine athletes stood out in that era because players were not fully professional. These days most players are above average athletically and guys like Folau and Hunt would not have as greater advantage as they would have had in the past.
Due to their lack of ‘Moneyball skills’, players like Folau would never achieve more than below average results. Years of playing in the AFL will no doubt improve his skills as it would with most players, but the years of fundamental skills that are drummed into most players will always be missing, and hence the ceiling on how far he can go will always be far lower.
The AFL has had success with Irish players in the past, such as Jim Stynes and Tadgh Kennelly – players that only started playing with the oval ball in their late teens or early twenties.
But these players grew up kicking and handling a ball in a comparable fashion. And even for Irish players the failure rate has been high in the AFL, with not many going on to rival the success of the few.
Rarely if ever in top-level sports do players ever successfully transition to a sport they did not grow up playing. One of the greatest sportsmen ever in Michael Jordan could not make the leap from basketball to baseball. And Jordan grew up playing some baseball.
One of the few exceptions is Aussie Rules players succeeding in the NFL as punters, but the skill set required is virtually the same.
Sydney ruckman Mike Pyke converted from rugby union. He’s managed to eke out 28 games with the Swans but still struggles with his kicking and marking. It’s safe to say he will struggle to elevate himself above a below average footballer.
While the Folau and Hunt experiments are more for promotional reasons, other clubs would be best advised to look for players with “Moneyball skills”, such as in the local leagues to find hidden gems – players who have honed their skills over most of their lives.
I would go as far to say that any of the top 10 players in the VFL would have more successful careers in the AFL than Folau .
Professional sports is a tough caper. To think someone can just walk into your sport and make a decent fist of it is in a way insulting to all the other players in the league. It’s saying that this isn’t so difficult.
AFL teams can continue to search other countries for talented athletes in the hope of converting them to our game. But in the end they are doomed to fail. The real talent is on their own doorstep.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Interesting that the Giants have just announced an affiliate club arrangement witih an aussie rules club in Croatia, the Zaprudje Giants: http://footyzaprudje.blogspot.com.au/
where's my jumper
Guest
surely all the 'doomed to fail' melodrama and half baked opinions from the arm chair critics, who would all jump at the chance to play footy for that kind of coin if they were ever given the opportunity despite clutching at a supposed moral high ground, are missing the point as footy fans, that its actually a real pleasure to watch a young bloke with a stack of raw talent, who from all reports is pretty humble and aware of the challenges before him, having a crack, learn new skills and show a bit more every time he touches the ball. so rather than bagging the guy after one match, in the spirit of nathan buckley who sought positives from the pies loss in that it gave "seven young guys with 27 games between them" some valuable game time, why not just for a moment appreciate what he could bring to the code and enjoy the ride. i for one wish him well and smile at the irony that the continual coverage he generates in the press only validates further the money spent on him by the afl.
Maximus
Guest
Billy Slater caught up with Izzy after the storm game last friday and Slater said izzy is very happy in Sydney and enjoying the challenge of AFL...so there you have it...
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
15 disposals, 4 marks.3 tackles, 1 free for, no frees against. McKenna was apparently happy.
Toa
Guest
Didn't catch the suns game how did Karmichael Hunt go?
Maximus
Guest
Ted, It was the first week of the season
T
Guest
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Ian Whitchurch
Guest
No, Jimbo is even more wrong than that. Izzy is wearing orange and charcoal because he *can* make a leap that thousands of Australian Rules players simply cannot. He got hired because he can do things they cant, and - in the opinion of Stephen Silvagni, Mark Williams and Kevin Sheedy - he can learn to do the things they can do and he cant.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Scully likely to debut next week for the Giants: http://www.sportsnewsfirst.com.au/articles/2012/03/30/scully-set-for-giants-debut/
The Cattery
Roar Guru
No Jimbo - they are humans - they have feelings.
ManInBlack
Guest
ON re-signing, Karmichael made some comments about having not enjoyed himself so much since his junior basketball days - - he's relishing the 'freedom'. In Aust Footy, there's tackling - as much as you can find. There are players like Luke Ball who will regularly collect 8-12 'tackles' (recognised by the stats) (although realistically there will have been more tackles attempted but not noted worthy of a statistical recognition of a 'successful tackle'). A dozen tackles may not sound like much, but, the key I guess is how hard such players are prepared to work to get in a position to tackle. Work rate is what it's all about. It's why Richmond's tackle count fell away after qtr time last night - they no longer were able to get numbers around the ball and sustain the pressure on Carlton. So, if Hunt and Folau truly want to spend most of their game time trying to bury someone into the turf - - they're going to be working harder than ever they have before. Me thinx though that Folau enjoys the aerial duels - he just needs to be able to get to more of them.
Jaceman
Guest
Sam Lane is writing a puff piece becaus the Fairfax press had a lot of negative GWS/AFL publicity before the GWS game (presumably because the telegrapgh was over hyping it) although it mellowed a couple of days before the game. Her father would undoubtedly write a scathing article because he wanted a team in Tassie. It will be interesting to see the coverage in next weeks SMH when both Sydney teams go at it...
Jaceman
Guest
Republican The head of the ARL Bud Abbott many years ago said they were going to the pacific Isles to chase players who were ideally built for NRL (and perhaps give them a chance in a different life) and perhaps expand the code. This was in answer to criticism from some of spending money on island trips in winter... I dont see a great deal of difference. Abobott said they were giving kids a differnt option in sport which is surely a good thing in the age of Xbox etc...
Simmo
Guest
It will for sure. Punters on the other hand might not even notice
Jimbo
Guest
There's no doubting that Folau & Hunt are great physical specimens. But there thousands of young Aussie Rulers around the country who could rightly question the validity of Izzy n Hunt being selected to 'make the leap', it's about dollars & growing a market. Truth is, Izzy & Hunt are nothing more than performing bears. Simple.
Fitzy
Guest
I was there Saturday night and although he didn't get 30 possessions (a figure that the nay sayers and doomsday people would only be happy with). He did get a couple of possessions of quality, one of which resulted in a GWS goal. Now if he was 18 playing his first game with his size we'd all be saying he's one to watch and may take the next step! Get off his back, regardless of what he signed for its not your money so cast judgement once he's been given time.
Ian Whitchurch
Guest
Republican, GWS's fourth-string ruckman is Tom Downie. They spent a draft pick on him. He's played twelve games of Australian Rules between the under-14s and being drafted. http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/hoops-and-dreams-20111123-1nv03.html Now, I find it pretty likely that with 20m Australians and 4m New Zealanders, one fifth of our potential good talls are wearing Silver Ferns, and worrying if they are too skinny for the second row. Great. Come over here, play our game. See if you like it. The AFL agrees, and allows "free" list spots for international players - and that means if a club puts a bit of work and effort into them, then they are likely to have a slight advantage over those that dont ... Mike Pyke would be the poster child of this, and he'll come in very very handy if Mumford goes down. And this "cultural affinity " to Australian Rules - what the heck ? Its a footy code. Its not like you pass if you understand the good German cultural interpretation of Wagner, and you fail if you follow the false Jewish interpretation. But then again Im not hung up on racialist ideas of our native football code, and therefore national spirit, being polluted if New Zealanders chase a pigs bladder around a muddy field in a code with no offside, six points for a kicked goal and a point for a try, a rushed behind or missing the goal by not much, and passing by hand requiring the ball to be punched. Then again, I could be just funny that way, in not associating a sport with national spitrit, national greatness or anything other than entertainment.
TW
Guest
GWS are very happy with things ATM in regards to lifting the exposure of our game up there. Some interesting figures being quoted. Their membership over 8000 now as well. http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/giants-big-winners-in-media-20120328-1vyru.html
Republican
Guest
Give me a break Ian NZ is a country with a population between 4 and 5 mill of which are leaving to come here in droves, whereas we are a population of 20 plus mill and growing. Are you seriously telling me that this country is suffering a dire lack of potential athletes with the required stature to play our code that we must scout across the ditch to fill this gap and that NZ has a monopoly on '6'4'' 100 kilo men.' While you may find your fair share of tall timber with bulk to burn in the shaky isles you will appreciate that it is infinitely unlikely that they will possess any of the skill set or cultural affinity required to play the Australian code. Why then is this suddenly a focus on the part of the AFL and those of your persuasion? I work with heaps of very tall Sudanese and while they may be suited to certain aspects of our game 99.9% have no interest in it or Basketball for that matter, preferring Soccer. This Kiwi hyperbole is simply integral to the hard sell promotion of our code that has taken place with GWS and the GC by going to league demographics, however this is far more challenging and more insidious requiring a different approach all together. in this case, as alien a demographic as NZ is, this subtly grooming is ultimately about gifting high profile fixtures and eventually a stand alone AFL presence to NZ - St Kilda for eg with the promise of 4 fixtures per season for Wellington. Compare that with what Tassie, the ACT and the NT have been afforded on merit; I am talking about decades of fostering and contributing to the national cause. This is about creating an illusion of some sort and since you can't start by plonking a side in NZ - yet as with GC and GWS, you need to start somewhere. What you do then is concoct a sense of culture to glean sentimental support for the Kiwi cause, by plucking a few largish athletes out of thin air a' la Heatherly as well as manufacturing a token PE type school focus i.e. HAnzUp, in the hope they may get a run with a league club ( we are still waiting) then presto, you can start selling NZ to the impressionable public, as a breeding ground for Australian Football. This has absolutely diddly to do with the dependance on NZ for future talent. This is integral to a calculated and sophisticated strategy to create a new TELE market that will see the AFL pit itself against the remaining Trans Tasman brands in the code cold war - at what cost, well I have already alluded to what this might be but it seems to fall on deft ears. Let us just wait and see shall we. (Note from Roar Mods - allowing this, but only just. Thanks)
Gucci
Guest
You're missing the point. The point here is not about athleticism. The point is that traditional methods look at various attributes, with athleticism being one of them, but other AFL KPIs would be things like speed, endurance, standing jump height, power, ability to mark, kicking/handballing accuracy etc. The whole point of Moneyball is that traditionally there are the same equivalent KPIs for baseball, and the Moneyball formula ignores them. Instead, it focuses on the ability to get on base, the ability to bowl balls that get people out (regardless of how the guy bowls). Whereas, you missed the point by simply focussing on athleticism, ie you're twisting the argument to say "traditional" scouts rate athleticism in Folau, but that Moneyball formula would focus on other skills, and therefore Folau must fail. That is completely wrong. The real Moneyball formula would ignore every one of those attributes and simply rate him in terms of can he kick goals, can he stop goals, when he's rucking can he get his onballers first use (irrespective of whether he taps the ball or whether he stops the other ruckman from tapping or however else he does it), etc. And what I'm saying is that because he's played only one game, you have a sample size of 1 game's worth of stats to put into the formula, which would be a completely wrong use of the formula.