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Here are my tips for this weekend’s races at Rosehill, Eagle Farm and Moonee Valley. Hopefully you back a winner.
Rosehill Race 4, No. 1, Rain Affair
Before his sixth-place finish in the Newmarket Handicap, Rain Affair had won nine straight races in Sydney some by massive margins. While connections would have been disappointed with the gelding’s effort in the Newmarket, it was quite apparent that he did not handle straight racing, and the fact he finished as close to the winner as he did is testament to the quality of the horse.
Rain Affair will likely get the run of the race sitting just behind the leader Neeson. The main danger should be Elite Falls, who was beaten at the line by Woorim at her last start. Elite Falls will have to charge home to beat Rain Affair as she races a long way off the pace. Rain Affair should be too strong to run down.
Rosehill Race 6, No. 8, Pied a Terre
Pied a Terre has been in excellent form this campaign. After winning the group two Hyland Colours Autumn Stakes, the horse ran an impressive second behind Green Moon in the Blamey Stakes. Wall Street ran third in that particular race, and was an unlucky sixth last start in the Group 1 Ranvet stakes, against much better opposition than ether horse will face today. Pied a Terre should be able to settle about fifth and get a fairly cosy run.
The favourite, at the moment, is Niagara who I don’t think will win. Niagara will probably attempt to contest the lead and I can see a situation where it is trapped three or four horses wide. This is certainly an open race but I believe Pied a Terre easily represents the best value.
Rosehill Race 7, No. 18, Silent Achiever
The boom New Zealand filly has won its last four starts with booming runs down the straight. At her last start she became the first filly in nearly two decades to win the New Zealand Derby and she did it by a very impressive two and a half lengths. Being the only filly in this contest, she carries two kilograms less than her male counterparts despite, according to Racing and Sports, rating higher this campaign.
A question mark looms over how she will handle the trip to Australia, but this didn’t effect fellow Kiwi Jimmy Choux who won this last year in his first start in Australia. I think any odds better than $3.50 are well worth taking for this classy young horse.
Eagle Farm Race 1, No. 6, Interview
This horse has really found its form as a five year old. Previously looked average at best, but this year has found another gear and has won its last two starts. The weight the horse must carry drops to 54 kilograms which, considering the horse has carried 58.5 to win in the past, has it extremely well placed.
Mr. Light Blue appears to be the main danger, but was disappointing coming back from being freshened last start and may need a spell. Rockdale is an experienced galloper and a last-start winner but wins seem to come haphazardly so its hard to see him going back to back.
Moonee Valley Race 7, No.9, Eclair Surprise
Eclair Surprise ran a solid third first-up two weeks ago in Bendigo and I believe is well set for this open handicap. Eclair Surprise was a competitive group level horse as a three-year old but he has been set back by injuries.
These appear to be a thing of the past however, and if the horse can reach the top form he showed as a three-year old he should go very close to winning this one. The favourite is Testacana who has to carry a whopping 59 kilograms. Testacana is a good horse but I think this weight might be just a bit too much, so she is over-valued in the market.
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