For how long are players, coaches and commentators allowed to say that it’s early in the season? Five rounds – or 19.2 percent of the regular season – have passed, more than enough of a sample to make some assessments.
There have been no surprises down in Melbourne, except that rival clubs should be terrified of Gareth Widdop’s development. He has grown from a solid link-man into a dangerous ball-runner, making the Storm’s spine even more lethal.
The Knights have plenty of quality players and no superstars – a situation that must be remedied for them to contend.
The Dragons’ run of peak-energy performances was going to hit a low at some point, especially when confronting a fluid, powerful Broncos side at home. The fact that they came back to score 20 points should be an enormous boost, especially for a team to whom scoring doesn’t come easily.
I still don’t see them as a top-four contender over 26 rounds.
Brisbane are superbly coached and feature one of the most athletic, skillful packs I’ve seen in recent years, mitigating the loss of Darren Lockyer.
The Sharks are the Rocky Balboa of the NRL, an overachieving team that should be proud as punch to have three wins and two losses. A 60 percent winning percentage over the remaining 19 rounds, plus two byes, would bring them to 32 points, which isn’t going to happen.
Cronulla has taken advantage of underachieving opposition, which won’t last long when teams start chasing them on the ladder.
Having said that, if every player on the team can play with half the passion, skill and energy level of the game’s ultimate Rocky, Paul Gallen, anything is possible. Gallen is one of the most astonishing players the league world has seen and he is already an all-time great.
As for Penrith? Their young front-rowers are impressive, their fullback is overrated, and Michael Jennings still has three mistakes too many in his game.
Manly versus Parramatta; this is where good coaching will be needed from Geoff Toovey. Manly are emotionally flat and completely uninspired, best illustrated by the lacklustre form of Daly Cherry-Evans.
Injuries, suspension and a shortened off-season have drained the Eagles of their customary venom, which should take nothing away from an energised Parramatta.
Most people are crediting Jarryd Hayne for the turnaround last weekend. He is only one part of it, and a player whose passion and ability to consistently dominate a game (think Benji, Billy, Thurston) is still very much in question.
Parramatta turned it around because their forwards employed speed and power in their work.
They offloaded the ball, and Parramatta’s halves, freed up by the presence of Hayne, attacked the line more and kicked less. In saying that, Hayne still looks two steps too slow to be consistently dangerous.
As predicted by this writer, the Warriors continue to prove that last year’s run was… last year.
This team is not committed to winning; they prefer to chance their arm, happy to live with errors.
The Roosters, with important pieces like Kenny-Dowall (class) and Braith Anasta back, are looking like an eighth-placed team if they can continue to play above themselves.
They have a superb set of young forwards in Guerra, Nuuausala, Kennedy and Hargreaves. Now all they need is an outstanding half.
Gold Coast’s game against Canterbury had a surprising quality to it. Moreover, 14,000 people at the stadium should be encouraging for the NRL. Like the Roosters, Canterbury’s pack is its core. Kasiano, Pritchard and the Rangas Tolman and Graham give this team a chance to make a dent in every game.
Des Hasler is showing his coaching stripes by making the Bulldogs look more dangerous than they actually should be (Barba notwithstanding), considering the absence of stars in their backline.
As for Wests Tigers… wow. No team can be excused for letting in two tries in the final six minutes. There are just too many opportunities to close the opposition down and bleed the clock.
The Tigers lack a threat beyond Benji, either at fullback or in the three-quarters.
Chris Lawrence, like Jarryd Hayne, lacks a step or two in speed compared to past seasons.
Instead of signing Braith Anasta, Tim Sheens should have gone all out to lure a class centre in the Justin Hodges mould. But they’re not easy to find.
The Bunnies continue to show strike power in patches, although wins like this are a measure of heart and talent in an isolated 10-minute period, not of the consistent mental and physical abilities needed to win in the long run. The jury is still out where Souths is concerned.
Canberra versus Cowboys was a battle of the middling teams. It was a promising sign for the North Queenslanders, though, that they were able to keep the opposition to six.
If they can improve their defence by 25 percent every game, they will make the eight, something I don’t see happening.
Canberra are beset by injuries, but when fully fit they’ll have the pieces to make a run. They have outstanding young talent across the field. I’m not convinced David Furner is a strong enough presence to make it all gel when he gets everyone back.
There is my assessment of where we’re headed based on 19.2 percent of the season proper. You can trust me – I tipped three from eight last weekend, an outstanding 37 percent success rate.
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