I was a sceptic, but Friday night turned me into a believer: Carlton are legitimate contenders for this year’s AFL premiership. All the fallout from the game has centred around the team in black and white.
It was revealed Luke Ball would be out for the year, then Eddie McGuire had a go at his own supporters, then Mick Malthouse had a go at his former club, then Eddie McGuire had a go at Mick Malthouse, then, well, all that pretty much ensured a week of Collingwood headlines.
But amid the drama, a significant story didn’t quite get the attention it deserved, and that story is Carlton’s emergence.
Not once last year did the Blues beat one of the top four sides. Six times they lost. Admittedly two of those were nail-biting encounters with Geelong and West Coast, however their lack of a good track record against the best hardly inspired confidence in their premiership aspirations.
Now, they have claimed a scalp. While you could mount a decent argument for Collingwood missing the top four this season, a statement was made in Friday night’s 60-point demolition.
They have a very good midfield, an important piece of the flag puzzle. Chris Judd and Marc Murphy are both elite and can provide the same kind of one-two punch of Ablett-Bartel and Swan-Pendlebury.
The support for the elite is also clearly there. Andrew Carrazzo, for example, did a phenomenal job taking Scott Pendlebury out of the contest on the weekend and collected plenty of the footy himself.
Crucially, at a time when other clubs’ ruck stocks aren’t looking crash hot, Matthew Kreuzer is having a massive influence. Then there’s Bryce Gibbs, Kade Simpson, Heath Scotland, the improved Mitch Robinson… a lot of talented players rotate through the middle.
The past few years have seen some considerable tweaking both down back and up forward and, to be fair, these areas will make or break their campaign (save for a gun or two getting injured).
The one area I was really worried about in the preseason was injuries, particularly in the backline. But the injury list has been whittled right down and, ominously, not added to.
You might say that a lot of players were due back early, but rarely do things actually work out that way when so many are sidelined. Now, though, the only big name still to return is Andrew Walker.
What this means is the backline, which turned a corner last year, can continue its progress. The transformation of Chris Yarran and Lachie Henderson to defenders and the addition of Jeremy Laidler and Nick Duigan were positive moves. Now we get to see how they function with a more game time and a full preseason working together.
So far, the results are good. On Friday night, the Blues became the first team not named Geelong to hold the Pies below 65 points since Round 21 of 2010.
Up forward, as thisAFL.com.au article illustrates, Brett Ratten has plenty of flexibility at his disposal. Another key development has been the form of Jarrad Waite.
A month ago I wrote, “The Blues need a tall target to fire, and Waite only registered 16 goals from his 12 games last season.” Already this season he has kicked nine.
Combined with small forwards who are an absolute headache to contain in Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett, it’s fair to say the Blues have a potent attack.
In terms of going all the way, I’ll be sticking with my prediction of Hawthorn holding the cup aloft come September. But there are times where we need to admit we were wrong, and by taking a cautious outlook with the Blues, I was off the mark.
The Blues, it must now be said, are a serious threat.
Hazz
Guest
They're favorites because they dont have to relyon players like judd, murphy, gibbs or kruezer. You are obvoiusly not a carlton supporter and do not realise the great depth of players that we as a club hold
Hazz
Guest
If you really are a blue you should be excited and full of confidence. BLUES FOR THE FLAG!
Hazz
Guest
Not likely. If anyone it will have to be a Paul Bower or a player like that. Kane Lucas is one of our unsung heroes and he is looking red hot this year.
Macca
Guest
Exactly cattery it is easy to sit back and say look at all the top draft picks the y had, but when it comes down to it you still have to use them. Imagine if the blues had of taken dowler instead of kennedy in 2005 then Gumbelton instead of Gibbs. They would not have been able to trade Dowler for Judd, meaning they would of probably had to have given up pick 1 & 3 meaning no Kreuzer or Gibbs and had Gumbelton constantly on the injury list. Every also got into them after they took Yarran before Rich, but that isn't looking too bad now.
The Cattery
Roar Guru
Fyfe went at no. 20??? ouch!! it just goes to show that there is no substitute for good ol' fashioned scouting.
Macca
Guest
I lifted this from an articel I found online, it shows how well the carlton recruiters did. "In 2005, they persuaded Marc Murphy to turn his back on joining Brisbane as a father-son selection and get him to Princes Park as the No.1 selection. Murphy is this year's Brownlow Medal favourite. While their No.4 selection in that draft is no longer at the club, by picking Josh Kennedy they would eventually have the bargaining chip to get Chris Judd from West Coast. In contrast, in the same draft Hawthorn would nominate Xavier Ellis at No.3 and Beau Dowler at No.6. In 2006, Carlton made the right choice by selecting Bryce Gibbs at No.1, ahead of key-forward flops Scott Gumbleton (2), Lachlan Hansen (3) and Mitch Thorp (6), though Joel Selwood (7) would not have been bad. At pick 17 the Blues chose Queenslander Shaun Hampson. As model Megan Gale's current squeeze, he is starting to have as big an impact on the field as he does off it. In 2007 the Blues did not finish bottom but because they had endured three straight years of winning less than five games, were handed the No.1 pick yet again. This time used it on Matty Kreuzer, and their No.3 selection ended up with the Eagles as part of the Judd deal. Though the Blues began their rise out of the doldrums in 2008, they would also make their picks in that year's draft count, choosing Chris Yarran (6) and Mitch Robinson (40), as well as Jeff Garlett as a rookie. Carlton's slogan for the 2009 season was "they know we're coming". Well, they have arrived and are banging on the door, installed this week as premiership favourite. Not looking good MELBOURNE would love Carlton's strike rate at the draft. It is still early, but the signs are not good for its recent picks. In 2008 the Demons chose Jack Watts at No.1 ahead of Nic Naitanui (2) and Michael Hurley (5), and Sam Blease (17) ahead of Luke Shuey (18), who has become another Eagles hit. In 2009, they took Tom Scully and Jack Trengove at one and two, ahead of Dustin Martin (3) and Jordan Gysberts (11), and Luke Tapscott (18) ahead of Nathan Fyfe (20) and Ryan Bastinac (21).
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Mind you, some of the absolute cracker goals that have been kicked this year have been one-touch volleys. Some real "how the hell did he do that with an oval ball?" moments.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Yes, but Carlton is a competent club, whilst Richmond (and Melbourne and some others) are shambolic jokes. Tambling, oy vey... Give three #1 picks to a competent club's administration and it's watch out time.
Macca
Guest
Richmond had some pretty high picks at the same time as the Blues and what did they do with them, Tambling, Oakley-Nicholls etc etc.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
Easy to recruit well when you get three #1 picks :)
Me too
Guest
Early/pre season calls: 2008 - cats 2009 - hawks 2010 - doggies 2011 - pies 2012 - blues Yes the Blues looked good beating their bunny Richmond (again), then beating a bottom four team that kicked six goals the next week with their captain back. Then they overran a depleted, tired collingwood. Bit early to call. If they can beat the eagles, the cats, and hawks then I may believe. They also have a revitalised St Kilda coming up - a team that smashed them late last year (sans hayes) despite being in a funk for most of the season. Then come the unknowables - imagine judd, gibbs, murphy, or kruezer getting a season ending injury? Any one of those and I'd expect it would spell the end of their current status as favourites. It's a long season, with many more swings and roundabouts to come.
ManInBlack
Guest
so, Carlton have beaten Richmond in their traditional opening round 'walkover', then Brisbane up there, so, a traveller, and now an injury hobbled Collingwood with guys like Jolly, O'Brien, Thomas and Shaw looking a shadow of themselves either due injury ravage (Jolly) or greater pressure/less freedom. Collingwood are not looking very much like the side of mid season 2011. Let's not go too far over the top with the season 3 rounds in. Carlton are doing alright early days. But, how many years in the past have the May champions fallen away. We haven't even hit May yet!! Granted though - Carlton look to be developing 'the right balance'. Collingwood almost had it last year. Geelong did. Both those sides have some rebuilding to do - can they?
Bludger
Guest
Put simply, Carlton has the best midfield in the game and as we all know, everything stems out of that. Well done to the Carlton recruiters. Sweet 17 is smelling pretty right now.
Robyn
Guest
After your I'll informed season preview of Carlton, questioning depth etc, now a massive back peddle....let's just see it's only round 4, but the signs are good.
Nathan of Perth
Guest
"those 3 extra winnable games and we would have grabbed a top 4 place, thereby probably still meeting west coast in the semifinals, except in VICTORIA. a team we barely lost to in WA, by 3 points." Just a reminder, but we did play a game in Victoria as well. Carlton got smushed in Victoria. Actually, there was an interesting comment I saw a Blue's supporter make that if Subi and Etihad reversed their dimensions, Blues and Eagles would be Top 2, because we play each other's principal grounds so well.
stabpass
Guest
Carlton need Waite fit for the finals, and their mosquito fleet running, to have a chance, but they look OK ATM. I have hated Carlton since i found out that one of the founders of that club was the judge who sentenced Ned Kelly to death, actually i hated them before that, but that really sealed the deal. Redmond Barry was known as the hanging judge.
Macca
Guest
Yeah it would be great but let's just get the win against the bombers this week hey!
thesportsguy
Guest
macca, the bye is round 13. how sweet would it be going into the bye with a record of 9-3? with the only losses being freo and west coast away, and geelong. of course undefeated is better , but im being realistic here. then playing hawks, pies, NM, doggies and richmond before another tough game against sydney (where maybe we drop it against hawks, pies) going 4-2 in that stretch, and finishing off the season with 4 teams who we have already beaten this year or should dominate against (brisbane, essendon, GC, st kilda) i think the point im trying to make is, if we win the games we should win, thats a true mark of a contender. it would give us a record of near 17-5. the exact record of west coast last year who finished 4th. last year i was so peeved when we drew against bombers, lost to the doggies (we really shouldnt have) and st kilda in the last round, a team we traditionally play very well and a team we'd beaten earlier that year. they, i felt, were losses that shouldnt have occured. those 3 extra winnable games and we would have grabbed a top 4 place, thereby probably still meeting west coast in the semifinals, except in VICTORIA. a team we barely lost to in WA, by 3 points. those losses, which i term bad losses (against doggies, saints and bombers) had a HUGE effect to the final series. we probably cost ourselves a home final win. this year, if we improve in that area, we take a giant stride towards a top 4 finish.
Macca
Guest
I think the consistency has improved and will imrove simply because of the players outside the team putting pressure on those inside. The 5 week stretch you highlighted (there is a bye in there) will be the test but their record against Geeelong isn't too bad and after Fridayu they might want to play the Pies every week!
thesportsguy
Guest
i am a blues supporter myself and am very optimistic about our top 4 chances this year, BUT and this is a huge BUT, we need to develop more consistency. we should beat essendon this round, we cannot let momentum slip and lose 4 points. if we carry a 4-0 record to fremantle, our confidence will be at a high it hasnt been for years! consider the draw for carlton after the freo game. - GWS -st kilda (who we play very well) -adelaide (in vic) -melbourne -port - geelong carlton MUST win against bombers, take momentum and confidence to beat freo (unlikey i fear) and play the following 5 rounds against teams they should beat. by the time they arrive in round 11, their record could and should be at least 10-1. If they digress to previous years and cant beat the bombers, they will probably end up with a record like 8-3 (loss of confidence and they could drop one against the saints) going into a horrible stretch of games where they play geelong, WCE away, hawks, and collingwood. a start of 8-3 could easily balloon out to 8-7. i think the real test is their week in week out consistency. Beat the bombers and the teams you should win against then il be a believer. round 11 for me should read 10-1 or i dont believe we have fully arrived.