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After three rounds in the AFL, three things have become clear. Firstly, season 2012 will be the most intriguing premiership race for over a decade, with continual speculation over the premiership favourites.
Regardless of the betting agencies or bar conversations, solid arguments can be made for a number of the top sides. Hawthorn and Carlton look destined for top four, and you would be brave to write off Geelong and Collingwood.
Yet last year’s grand finalists are outside the eight with only one win each, and while the season is young, competition for top-four spots is fierce. Legitimate premiership chances will start the finals series outside the top four – much as Carlton last year.
The difference this year is that teams below fourth will be more confident they can break the hoodoo of challenging for a flag from an elimination final victory.
The second observation: the AFL’s pursuit for equality has ensured the race to the finals will continue deep into the season. With no clear favourites this year and already some vulnerability shown in the more fancied sides, a healthy list and timely luck will ensure a few sides will be capable of surprising.
We have already seen obvious signs of improvement from North Melbourne and Fremantle. Richmond will win back supporters given their losses came at the hands of the stronger sides, and Adelaide, while disappointing in Round 3, play GWS and the Gold Coast twice each and have enough home games to be aiming for finals.
Spectators will see plenty of contests to offset the blowouts.
Beyond finals motivation there is a growing need for clubs to be competitive; to advertise to their fans and players that their future is bright. With compromised drafts and free agency, most teams can ill-afford to dwell at the bottom of the ladder.
An unprecedented number of teams and a long list of strong premiership chances have ensured some teams have already experienced how hard it is to follow through on pre-season hype. The fixture has influenced results since it was no longer binding to play each team twice – a debate for another time.
There are now distinct imbalances with travel, ground exposure (some teams see the MCG less than twice before finals) and the advantage of playing the AFL’s new teams twice. In a year where percentage will be a huge factor, these will unfortunately influence the season, unpalatable as that may be.
Thirdly, despite the first two observations, it is timely now for the AFL to consider splitting the league and the home-and-away season into conferences. The league seems evenly divided into three tiers; the contenders, the pretenders and the intenders. We are familiar with the first two of these terms and we have enough evidence after three rounds to confirm pre-season predictions.
The Contenders
Hawthorn’s form is irresistible; their talented list and impressive depth will ensure only disaster will keep them out of the top four. They were a couple of minutes away from a grand final in 2011 and they look stronger this year with even more precision with their game plan and more versatility.
Carlton is a similar story; their fateful home-and-away loss last year to West Coast in Melbourne ended up being the difference between fourth and fifth. A gallant loss in the Perth-based final could have easily been a win had the final been in Melbourne, and the Blues enter this year with that knowledge driving a more balanced, experienced and hungrier side.
Despite West Coast’s injuries, they will win enough games at home to make finals and enough away to finish top six. Talk of Collingwood’s demise is premature – they won’t be the only team who fails against Hawthorn and Carlton this year. Geelong shows some signs of decline but we have said that before.
The smoky is Fremantle – they were on track for top four last year before injury struck and cruelled their season. Regardless of the new coach, this is a talented list with an enormous home ground advantage and enough ability to finish top four; top six is theirs to take.
The Pretenders
The tag may be cruel especially this year, but while the six teams in this bracket may have improved, they are unlikely to seriously challenge for the 2012 flag. I had North Melbourne in the top eight pre-season and the early signs are they will take this next step.
Their pre-season form was strong, and while factors were in their favour against Geelong, a win against the reigning premier has been a long time coming for the Kangaroos. Their list is emerging and while they may still fall short against some of the top six, they will claim another scalp or two before season’s end.
St Kilda has been written off too soon, and while the gaps in their list are getting wider and their window may have closed, they are likely to compete with Sydney for a final eight berth. Richmond were judged harshly after round two considering who they lost to. They should improve on last year and may even sneak into the eight if they can keep their performances even.
Adelaide’s draw assists them, though to be fair they were a finalist two seasons ago and they have a lot of potential on their list. They are another who could make the eight without really threatening the top sides. Essendon is the last of this group – they have the potential to make finals, however they are equally likely to finish bottom six.
They do not seem to be growing as a team, however they also seem content to make measured progress, accepting their place in the pecking order while planning for the future.
The Intenders
As the name suggests, this group can only make intentions to improve. Brisbane and Port Adelaide fit in this category; signs of improvement are there, but success is driven by individuals more than team effort, and they lack the consistent performances that finals teams require.
While I had Melbourne higher pre-season, they have been disappointing in almost every facet so far this year, and the immediate future does not look good. Many suggest they should commence another rebuild; the list does look good on paper and I am not convinced such drastic action is necessary. They do seem destined for bottom six in 2012, but also have more potential than others to reclaim their season.
Sadly, the same cannot be said for the Western Bulldogs. They have some good players, particularly in the midfield, and they are able to get the ball enough to be a nuisance. They cannot execute in a way that renders them dangerous, so while we will see some cameo performances, too much is left to the same few.
GWS and Gold Coast will probably be excused again this year, and therefore will occupy the bottom two spots. While the Suns have more stars, GWS are undertaking a calculated five-year plan, and if they suitably complement their list in this year’s draft, they may improve faster than any other in this category next year.
While there may be some argument about where I have predicted teams to finish this season, it is hard to deny that the gap between the best and worst teams seems greater than before, and while most teams have potential to be competitive, realistic premiership chances will elude the bottom six.
With this structure, the league will have to contend with tanking teams and struggling clubs every season. Though the competition is cyclical, it can be a long time before your premiership window opens, and not all fans are patient.
Additionally, not all clubs realise their premiership dream during their window, and with 18 teams, some will experience prolonged droughts.
The argument for conferences has a lot of merit. Unofficially the league already accommodates the powerhouses, scheduling blockbusters and broadcasts. Similarly there are compensation packages and draft concessions to assist the struggling clubs.
If the AFL seriously considers formally dividing the league into three conferences, they could potentially create more blockbusters and more rivalry. It would assist in scheduling matches and stadium deals and even create ongoing interest in the home-and-away season.
It would also allow the AFL to manipulate the fixture by ensuring each conference featured at least two powerhouse teams per year, so the AFL could still schedule their blockbusters. Rivalry between teams in each conference would be promoted, which would encourage the sport and increase interest in games between sides with no realistic finals hopes.
The 18 teams could be split into three conferences, made up of six teams each. Each season, teams from conference A could play other teams in their own conference twice, while playing teams in conference B and C once. Only the top four teams from conferences A and B would play in finals, while the lowest ranked teams from these two conferences could be replaced by the highest ranked in conference C.
Effectively, where you finish the previous year determines which conference you enter the following season. The bottom six teams of season 2012 have no chance of finals – they are conference C – and so they have little motivation to win. In fact they are motivated to lose and secure higher draft picks.
If though conference C allowed them to challenge for promotion to conference A or B, the issue of tanking would be removed. If the lowest ranked team from conference A and B was demoted to C, teams would be forced to compete or risk jeopardising a season.
The introduction of conferences would be a significant change to the traditional structure of the AFL, perhaps the largest since its inception. As the league continues to expand, it needs to ensure that the clubs continue to have sustainable success – and indeed an appetite for success each season.
It is not healthy to be entering round four with so many clubs declaring they are ‘preparing for next season’ and looking to rebuild. It is also a vulnerable state for non-financial clubs currently at the bottom of the ladder, as the journey to the top is longer than before.
Those at the top continue to grow strong and avoid bottoming out, so while they sustain performances on and off field, the challenge to usurp them becomes more difficult. Our current structure creates the mismatched games we have seen – and will continue to see – this year.
While footy fans have a lot to be excited about this year, the need for a radical change may become increasingly evident by season’s end.
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