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Doncaster Day: Live race updates, blog

21st April, 2012
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21st April, 2012
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The Doncaster Mile is one of the best races in Australia. Join us for live race updates and a blog from Royal Randwick in Sydney as we build up to the 3.35pm AEST start time.

The Doncaster is the premier 1600 metre race in Australia. It is the third best handicap in the country.

Sydney has been hammered by rain all week and the track rating will be important. What will also be crucial is whether the track is genuinely wet or drying out.

I wrote this preview on Friday night and I’ve assessed the form with the belief the race will be run on a drying slow track.

If however the rain comes on raceday it will impact significantly on the result of the race and what I’ve written below could well be rendered worthless. So play close attention to the weather and the blog below.

1. Rangirangdoo Weight: 58 Barrier: 17 Odds: 12

He won this race in 2010 and is in pretty good form heading into this race. I think he’s weighted to his absolute best performances and he probably is better on a genuine heavy track or rock-hard surface than the drying surface we’re expecting for this race.

He was outstanding two runs back when finishing second behind the star performer of the autumn, Manighar, in the Ranvet. His run last time in the George Ryder at WFA was a bit indifferent. He loomed up to win but petered out to finish sixth beaten half a length.

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He loves Randwick (never missed a place there), is good at the distance and is a former winner of this race. I have great respect for this galloper but from a tipping and betting perspective he gets the cold shoulder.

2. More Joyous Weight: 57.5 Barrier 12 Odds: 5.5

Owner John Singleton must’ve been pretty disappointed when the rain came down on Tuesday and Wednesday because he knows his mare hates it. Such is his lack of confidence in her wet-track ability, he said he’d scratch MJ if the track was rated heavy.

More Joyous is probably in career-best form. She was outstanding when winning first-up at Rosehill when she presented in the mounting yard in poor fashion.

Her coat improved somewhat last time and so did her performance – she dismissed the Group One Queen Of The Turf field with disdain. Her 2.5 length was soft and arrogant and a great Doncaster lead-up.

This mare doesn’t perform in the big ones and just as it’s a slap in the face for a good footballer, it’s a slap in the face of this great mare but the facts don’t lie.

When the stakes are highest, MJ usually finishes out the back (15th in the Golden Slipper as second favourite, fifth in the Cox Plate as second favourite and 11th in last’s year Doncaster as short favourite is proof of that).

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She has great stats at Randwick, 1600 metres and slow going but in my opinion she saves her best for 1500 metre racing at Rosehill on firm ground where she is undefeated. Must lug a big weight for a mare and shirk the small-time player tag to win here.

3. Shoot Out Weight: 56.5 Barrer: 10 Odds: 8

I really like this bloke. I think things are falling into place for him. Shoot Out is the 2010 Randwick Guineas and AJC Derby winner, both at Randwick.

Shoot Out is in career-best form and he gets to his favourite track and distance.

He was brave when not suited in the 2000 metres Ranvet when running third to Manighar and Rangirangdoo. Before that he was brilliant when dominating his opponents in the Chipping Norton.

He comes into this race without a run for a month and it is a massive positive I feel. When a horse races fresh they usually show a bit more speed than usual. Shoot Out has a turn of foot and if it’s at its sharpest today he is going to be hard to beat.

His form on slow ground is strong (four wins and four further placings from ten tries).

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I think he can win the Doncaster. It’s been a faultless preparation and he’s always promised to win a race of this ilk against all-comers.

My top selection.

4. Rekindled Interest – Scratched

5. Albert The Fat Weight: 55.5 Barrier: 7 Odds: 51

Albert The Fat won the Emirates Stakes over 1600 metres during last spring’s Flemington Carnival. On that occasion he carried 54 kilos. Today he rises in weight by one kg but goes from a decent Group One to the premier mile race in the Southern Hemisphere.

His form is okay for this. He takes a WFA route through the best races to today. But he doesn’t perform at Randwick.

There were signs he was ready to win the Emirates in the spring. Those same signs haven’t surfaced in the lead-up to today.

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Not for me.

6. Sincero Weight: 55.5 Barrier: 6 Odds: 8

When the rain came and it seemed we could be racing on a bottomless Randwick track the punter’s money went on Sincero but I think, as the old adage goes, they went before acceptances.

The track looks like it will play in the slow (maybe even dead) range and Sincero’s worse runs happen on slow and dead tracks (11 starts for two wins and no minor placings).

Sincero’s two runs in this preparation have been sound. He was good first-up in the Canterbury behind More Joyous and followed that up with a solid, closing fifth in Metal Bender’s George Ryder.

I’m happy to be taking him on but if the rain comes during the day, I’ll be jumping ship.

Good place hope in any case.

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7. Danleigh Weight: 55 Barrier: 8 Odds: 51

When Danleigh was one of the best horses in Australia he didn’t run a strong mile. Now, that he is on the wane and eight years old it hasn’t improved.

He’s a Rosehill horse. At the Randwick 1600 metres he’s had five tries without finishing in the top three once.

He started this preparation in good nick but his latest run when finishing 13th in the Ryder was not good enough for this.

Place best but I can’t really recommend him. I suppose the one positive is he is quite effective on slow ground.

8. Happy Zero Weight: 54.5 Barrier: 21 Odds: 41

I may be going out on a limb but I’m sure Happy Zero is the best horse in this race. He is a dual Group One placegetter (one at 1200 metres, the other at 1600 metres) in races given international billing in Hong Kong.

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His two runs this time in have been meritorious. When this horse (now seven) was younger, he was a sprinter but he is beginning to race more like a miler/middle-distance horse these days.

Happy Zero is going to appreciate getting up to a mile and dropping to 54.5 kilograms. I think he would’ve benefitted from drawing a better barrier too but another wide draw denies him an opportunity to use his good early speed.

I actually backed this bloke to win this race at 150/1 after his run first-up. He’s my ticket to Royal Ascot to watch Black Caviar so I would love to see him win this race.

I’m not convinced by his wet-track ability (five dead-track starts for one win and one minor placing and one slow-track run for no placing) but he is bred to handle it.

The Sportsman’s Shayne O’ Cass says Happy Zero won a trial on a bog track many years ago, before he left Australia for Hong Kong, in impressive fashion – I couldn’t find any information to back that up but if it’s true it helps his cause significantly.

If he gets through the ground he can win. If he doesn’t get through the ground he doesn’t have a hope in the world. In any case, I’ll be cheering for him!

9. Wall Street Weight: 54.5 Barrier: 13 Odds: 21

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Wall Street comes through the Ranvet with Shoot Out but Shoot Out was far superior that day. This horse is incredibly honest but he lacks the class to win one of these elite-level Group Is.

His Randwick form is just fair but he is very effective on slow ground (six goes for three wins and a couple of seconds).

He’s weighted well but I think the best he could do is run a place.

10. Secret Admirer Weight: 54 Barrier: 22 Odds: 6.5

Secret Admirer has plenty of things in her favour. For starters, she loves the Randwick mile. She is a dual-Group I winner at this track and distance (both on soft-ish ground) and the old-timers will tell you that ‘horses for courses’ is a formula that works at Randwick.

She’s been building to a win this preparation and all of her runs have been good. Now, that she’s fully fit and strikes a wet track (dead/slow form: seven goes for two wins, one second and two thirds), I think she’s ready to win.

Her run in the Coolmore behind Ofcourseican when carrying weight was strong. She was equally good in the Ryder two weeks back when finishing third. She gets a nice weight drop into this.

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Huge player. Massive winning chance.

11. Centennial Park Weight: 54 Barrier: 3 Odds: 71

Since he was just a pup (well you know what I mean), Centennial Park has always struggled to run a strong mile and there’s no tougher mile in Australia than the famous Randwick mile. He’s eight goes at Randwick for no placings; six goes at the trip for only one second.

His wet form is good – two wins and two placings from six goes on slow ground but his form isn’t good enough to figure here.

12. King’s Rose – Scratched (will be heading to Hong Kong for the Champion’s Mile after accepting an invitation for that race)

13. Hurtle Myrtle Weight: 53 Barrier: 14 Odds: 11

Hurtle Myrtle had her career-defining win when destroying Australia’s best mares (bar Black Caviar of course) in Derby Day’s Myer Classic at Flemington.

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She then spelled and hasn’t produced a run of that quality this preparation. She’s a wet-track performer (12 goes on hard ground for no wins and three minor placings) but steady improvement on what’s she has dished up in her two latest runs is required.

Hurtle Myrtle is capable of rapid improvement. She’s third-up here and she was third-up and 15/1 when she won the Myer.

She goes well at Randwick and runs well at the distance. Hurtle Myrtle is thrown in with 53 kilograms (getting a 4.5 kilo turnaround on More Joyous). The wet track brings her into calculations.

In my opinion, she’s probably the second-best horse to take on speculation (rather than solid form) behind Happy Zero. Big winning hope.

14. Monton Weight: 52.5 Barrier: 18 Odds: 19

In every major handicap there is a thing called ‘the weights horse’. What we mean by ‘the weights horse’ is the runner who slipped under the handicapper’s guard and enters the race with a lighter weight than they may deserve. And in this race Monton is the weights horse.

Monton’s run in the Ryder last time was very average. He entered it in good form but faltered in the straight to tire into an 11th placed finish.

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Monton doesn’t usually bring his best to Randwick or a wet surface. I’m happy to be against him here but he has a weight advantage on every horse he has met so far this autumn.

15. He’s Remarkable Weight: 52.5 Barrier: 5 Odds: 21

This bloke will forever be remembered as the victim of what is largely (but not universally) considered to be one of the worst protest decisions ever made on an Australian racetrack when he was punted out of Railway Stakes glory by the now notorious Perth stewards.

He enters this race with that Railway run (1600 metres, Group I) as his career-best performance.

In this campaign he saluted in the Newcastle Newmarket before finishing a horrible second last in the Ryder. What happened there I wonder?

His mile form is exemplary (seven starts for three wins and four minor placings). He is very effective on slow ground too.

I find it hard to simply overlook his latest poor effort but his best is good enough to figure in the top five here.

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Others are more confident than me.

16. Yosei Weight: 52 Barrier: 1 Odds: 26

Yosei is a three time Group I winner however she isn’t in the form nor has the quality to win a Doncaster. It would be a big surprise.

Her run two back in the Coolmore was sound but after that she was poor in the Queen Of The Turf against More Joyous and Hurtle Myrtle. Not for me.

17. Absolutely Weight: 52 Barrier: 15 Odds: 21

Absolutely is an Australian Oaks winner whose best runs have been at longer than 1600 metres. She’s hasn’t really run a good race for a while.

First-up for this she was sound when finishing in the clump fighting out second in the Ajax behind Niagara before putting in a shocker in much weaker grade than this.

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Wet ground may suit but you’ve got to be brave with this one.

18. Niagara Weight: 52 Barrier: 16 Odds: 10

Others are keener about this three-year old than me. He indicated this race would be his go after a slashing second first-up behind Nobby Snip (engaged as one of the favourites in the Galaxy also run today).

He followed that up with a dominating win in the Ajax at Rosehill when he shot to the top of Doncaster betting.

The biggest test of his career came on the back-up in the Ryder last time. He got weight off every runner in the field and after starting favourite was only good enough to finish 12th. Was it his lack of class that told? Or was it a failure to perform on the seven-day break?

I don’t know but it’s not really inspring heading into a Doncaster.

He’s effective on wet ground, gets to his home track, a distance that will suit and has no weight on his back. He has the potential to win this race but considering his odds of only $10 and his poor lead-up run I’m prepared to take him on.

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19. Fast Clip Weight: 52 Barrier: 4 Odds: 26

The third runner for in-form trainer Gai Waterhouse stable (who also has More Joyous and Niagara engaged). He won the Doncaster Prelude last week after being headed in the straight.

He performs well at Randwick, will go forward, has no weight and brings in solid form.

I’m not sure if racing on the back-up (often takes the speed out of a horse) is ideal for this four-year old that indicated he could be a stayer with a Group win last season over 2000 metres. He rises in grade significantly for this.

He’ll have his supporters, as all of Gai’s inevitably do, but I’m prepared to take him on.

20. Single – Scratched

21. Happy Trials Weight: 52 Barrier: 20 Odds: 51

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I think this bloke is a good roughie in this race. He is ultra-consistent and may be ready to go a new level on the back-up.

His run last start was enormous behind Fast Clip – quite simply he should’ve won after failing to get clear until the 150 metre mark. Before that he was good in each of this other four runs this preparation.

He will be benefitted from a fast tempo in this race and if he gets the breaks he will go close to running a place. He is a good wet tracker and a horse I have a bit of an opinion of. Certainly not the worst here, especially at the price of 51.

22. All Legal Weight: 52 Barrier: 11 Odds: 101

I’m not convinced All Legal is up to Group-level racing so I expect him to struggle in a Doncaster. His form this time in has been pretty good but for lesser races than this.

He won his only start on a slow track but I think there’s others weighted at 52/53 kilos that have far more form and ability than this bloke. He looks outclassed.

Tips

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1. Shoot Out
2. Secret Admirer
3. Happy Zero
4. Hurtle Myrtle
5. Happy Trails

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